ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[muscarem]

I can't believe the local mets on the radio here in New Orleans (WWL). They just said that there was "uncertainty" with the models with some going to Florida and some going over us. WTF???

What uncertainty??



95% of the models going over LA. Where are they getting this made up "split" in the models with some taking it to LA and the rest taking it to the Florida panhandle. And this was a LIVE update on the radio just 15 minutes ago.

The people I am talking to are complacent because of the local news. I've talked to neighbors and friends who have said "they saying it still might go to florida" etc.. How can it go to florida when no models have been taking it to florida???

I just never understand the local weather mets and media. I know they don't want to panic people but it was the same thing for Katrina, 3 days before Katrina made landfall ALL of the local mets said " not a concern for us, NOT coming close to us" so people let their guards down. Now they are doing it again. They going to wait till later tonight or tomorrow morning to sound the alarm and say " now it's coming this way" and its not going to give people enough time to prepare.

/rant

Just goes to show you can't wait on the powers to be to make those judgement calls for you. If you think you are in harm's way and need to leave - no reason to wait around for anyone else, if you have to means.

In some fairness, they may be talking about the Euro and UKMET which only one is shown on that plot. Both of the 00z runs showed a western panhandle hit. This was also talked about in the 11 am NHC disc.

When 18 models show LA/MS and 2 show FL and they make it sound like " uncertainty" with the models, we don't know, 50/50 it could go to florida, I think that is irresponsible. Especially after they have been hammering into everyone's head the last couple days "it's going to florida panhandle" so they making people think it's still going to go to florida but has a chance to come to us when that should be the complete opposite.

Just FYI, the European model is the most accurate model based on track record of all the models, this is why they are giving it due deference and not only that, it only comes out twice a day and at different times than the other models, so it tends to lag behind and doesn't update with the other models that you are looking at.

See this link for the model verification track record over the years, the blue dot is the EMX (the euro model) it's the most accurate:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/figs/ALtkerrtrd_earlymdl.gif

For more information you can go here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify6.shtml

[NOAGUY504]

Had the Mayor called for a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans since the city is under a hurricane watch? Under 72 hours to possible landfall so the wait-and-see window is over if I am correct - the city takes 72 hours to empty.

If this is off topic of Isaac, i apologize.

Nope, and not a word on NOLA emergency management text or Twitter alerts. Naginesque.

No state of emergency (except for Plaquemines parish) no news coverage on tv and just "updates" on the radio telling us it might go to florida it might come our way. that's it.

unbelievable. I've already called several people and had them make reservations and to start preparing. It doesn't hurt to be prepared.

Here is what is likely going to happen and I'd bet on it. Over night tonight the storm is going to get a lot stronger then tomorrow morning they going to call for evacs last minute (less then 48 hours from landfall) and freak everyone out last minute. They should be starting volunetary evacs this evening, and they should be informing people that this could get real serious to prepare now, not " it might come here it might go to florida, we don't know" And this is also the NHC centers fault for taking so long to drag their track back to the west. Last night 95% of the models shifted to LA/MS but they just put LA back in the "cone" this morning. The track was still going to Mobile/Pensacola this morning. People wake up, see that, and think it's all clear.

[GCANE]

Looks like Isaac is now kicking in another outflow channel from the UL trough in the GOM to his west.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... g8wvir.GIF

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like I will be up late tonight watching this tonight.

Maybe now is a good time to encourage the 622 guests on the forum to register with us!

[ATCcane]

Has Wxman57 or AirForce Met been around today and I missed them ? Would like to hear their thoughts today. I'm certain they are getting even busier than they have been over the last few days......

[Jevo]

Live Key West cam outside of Sloppy Joes.. May not be the best for actually seeing the whipping trees and choppy ocean... But the intoxicated people dancing in a tropical storm sure is entertaining

http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/

[orion]

A couple comments...

Be careful when looking at spaghetti plots of the models. You need to be aware of when the models were initialized and were the initial values correct. As another poster said, many of the models rely on data from the GFS. There are also ensembles that are run of the same dynamical model, but with slightly different initial conditions. If these slightly different conditions lead to widely varying results, then we need to question the accuracy of it. On the other hand, if these slightly different initial conditions yield relatively the same results, we can be much more confident.

If Isaac continues to struggle somewhat, then I believe he will keep on the NHC path and possibly to the left/west of it... but, if Isaac deepens, he will feel more of the weakness that could draw him more north and take a path more to the right/east of the NHC path. I don't think we can fault the NHC for not jumping west with the spaghetti plots, for reasons above and as they explained in the discussion. I think we will see this deepening start as Isaac passes by the keys. Will he then see the weakness? Hard to say at this point, just need to wait and see and adjust as we get more data.

~orion

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hey folks, here's an excellent Key West Cam and it streams too and has sound!!!

http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/

Looks like folks having a great old time
You can even eavesdrop on conversations...

[ndale]

yeah Im sure it will eventually. for it to feel the weakness it would have to deeper up the 500 mb level and we would see a more nnw motion being its still relativity shallow its may pass the weakens which is what the models are seeing. but if it deepens soon things may change.

That is exactly what I'm thinking ... the longer Isaac struggles to stack himself vertically, the more apt he is to move less poleward. However, if he ends up getting it together quickly this afternoon and evening ... it wouldn't surprise me to see the modeling switch back east again.

When storms are pulled poleward because they grow stronger what kind of effect does this have on their track, minimal, moderate, or does it vary a lot from storm to storm?

[wxman57]

When 18 models show LA/MS and 2 show FL and they make it sound like " uncertainty" with the models, we don't know, 50/50 it could go to florida, I think that is irresponsible. Especially after they have been hammering into everyone's head the last couple days "it's going to florida panhandle" so they making people think it's still going to go to florida but has a chance to come to us when that should be the complete opposite.

Actually, none of the 12Z models had landfall east of Mobile. The 06Z model plots on the image in question were the ones taking the center to Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

Is it just me or does anyone see Isaac getting out near 25N 85W as the GFS depicts around 24 hours with its current motion?


As seen here at 21 hours........

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... L&hour=021

[cheezyWXguy]

I dont know what just happened, but it looks like Isaac just gave himself a little kick in the behind... Increased banding on radar, deeper convection over the center with outflow actually developing now on the west side, and the inflow channel over Cuba, while still fairly dry, may be starting to slowly moisten. I swear, every time we say one thing, it does the opposite

[Time_Zone]

Whats the levee situation in NOLA like now? I wouldn't imagine this thing has the potential to become as horrible as Katrina was.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm afraid this will be significantly worse than Gustav for the state of LA. Again, the complacency is insane here right now. No one has a CLUE. Even my area needs to start getting prepared based on the trajectory in the models. I'm hoping Bobby Jindal does the right thing with the afternoons press conference. It is time to sound the alarms.

[Rgv20]

...Isaac has not strengthened...




summary of 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...23.9n 81.5w
about 50 mi...85 km SSE of Key West Florida
about 75 mi...120 km NE of Havana Cuba
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...WNW or 300 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/h
minimum central pressure...994 mb...29.35 inches

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... P9qLUsz.99

[tolakram]

When 18 models show LA/MS and 2 show FL and they make it sound like " uncertainty" with the models, we don't know, 50/50 it could go to florida, I think that is irresponsible. Especially after they have been hammering into everyone's head the last couple days "it's going to florida panhandle" so they making people think it's still going to go to florida but has a chance to come to us when that should be the complete opposite.

Howdy,

most of those models are based on the GFS or are usually inaccurate. I understand you all are in a unique situation, but right now the best thing to do is wait until one of the most reliable model, if not THE most reliable, starts to agree with the GFS. Too many false alarms and you get the same problem, complacency. You should do what is best for YOU, and hope others do as well.

Even the best model, 72 hours out, is not all that reliable on track placement. Unfortunately the accuracy just isn't there yet for a solid 3 day warning.

Best of luck to you, stay safe!

[jinftl]

I find that kind of amazing given New Orlean's recent hurricane history - we are getting a strong t.s. today in Miami and we have 24-7 news coverage with the local news and briefings from county eeoc a few times a day with press conferences. It is all you hear about here today and we are not facing the threat New Orleans is.

Had the Mayor called for a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans since the city is under a hurricane watch? Under 72 hours to possible landfall so the wait-and-see window is over if I am correct - the city takes 72 hours to empty.

If this is off topic of Isaac, i apologize.

Nope, and not a word on NOLA emergency management text or Twitter alerts. Naginesque.

No state of emergency (except for Plaquemines parish) no news coverage on tv and just "updates" on the radio telling us it might go to florida it might come our way. that's it.

unbelievable. I've already called several people and had them make reservations and to start preparing. It doesn't hurt to be prepared.

Here is what is likely going to happen and I'd bet on it. Over night tonight the storm is going to get a lot stronger then tomorrow morning they going to call for evacs last minute (less then 48 hours from landfall) and freak everyone out last minute. They should be starting volunetary evacs this evening, and they should be informing people that this could get real serious to prepare now, not " it might come here it might go to florida, we don't know" And this is also the NHC centers fault for taking so long to drag their track back to the west. Last night 95% of the models shifted to LA/MS but they just put LA back in the "cone" this morning. The track was still going to Mobile/Pensacola this morning. People wake up, see that, and think it's all clear.

[Meteorcane]

Just had a significant band with high rainfall rate here in Coral Gables, about what you'd expect from a tropical storm 150ish miles away, some wind gusts to around 50 in some of the bands.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Had the Mayor called for a mandatory evacuation of New Orleans since the city is under a hurricane watch? Under 72 hours to possible landfall so the wait-and-see window is over if I am correct - the city takes 72 hours to empty.

If this is off topic of Isaac, i apologize.

Nope, and not a word on NOLA emergency management text or Twitter alerts. Naginesque.

No state of emergency (except for Plaquemines parish) no news coverage on tv and just "updates" on the radio telling us it might go to florida it might come our way. that's it.

unbelievable. I've already called several people and had them make reservations and to start preparing. It doesn't hurt to be prepared.

Here is what is likely going to happen and I'd bet on it. Over night tonight the storm is going to get a lot stronger then tomorrow morning they going to call for evacs last minute (less then 48 hours from landfall) and freak everyone out last minute. They should be starting volunetary evacs this evening, and they should be informing people that this could get real serious to prepare now, not " it might come here it might go to florida, we don't know" And this is also the NHC centers fault for taking so long to drag their track back to the west. Last night 95% of the models shifted to LA/MS but they just put LA back in the "cone" this morning. The track was still going to Mobile/Pensacola this morning. People wake up, see that, and think it's all clear.

Dude, calm down some. The NHC has had years of experience tracking and forecasting weather situations, and bashing them does not help you with your point. Other than you saying 95% of the models (which has already been pointed out to you are all based on the GFS run accept one), what is your basis for your prediction and forecast that the storm is going to bomb out? Just because Katrina did it, does not mean that Isaac will. The synoptic patterns aloft are quite different now than they were then, plus the surface conditions are pretty stable. I hate to say it, but unless you provide facts to back up your statements, you are just coming off as "Chicken Little". the sky is not falling....yet.

[galaxy401]

Interesting that they lowered the intensity for the storm. We'll see if this is just a little setback or a sign of things to come.