ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

Live Key West cam outside of Sloppy Joes.. May not be the best for actually seeing the whipping trees and choppy ocean... But the intoxicated people dancing in a tropical storm sure is entertaining

http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/

Wow Jevo, I didn't even see your above post regarding the cam. That's too funny ... I know that both those cams are accessible on that main page...I had it book marked from a few storms ago and decided to find it this morning....

Anyway, I still think that Isaac will hit hurricane strength within 12 hours. As others have stated, I think it just needs to move further away from Cuba, as that seems to be the dry air culprit.

[WeatherGuesser]

Has anybody tried out the Interactive Cone of Uncertainty?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... k#contents

[Hurricaneman]

I just noticed something, the LLCC seems to be being sucked into the convection, hence the northward jog now it seems to be back to WNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ConvergenceZone]

Interesting that they lowered the intensity for the storm. We'll see if this is just a little setback or a sign of things to come.

Well as I mentioned in a few of my posts, the NHC said they weren't finding winds to justify it being at 65 mph, so I'm not shocked they brought it down, but I thought they would keep it the same to to its proximity to the keys.

[wx247]

While I know far far less than many of you, please remember that tropical systems act according to the environment they are in. Just because Isaac has had a problem consolidating so far does not mean that he can't do so in the future if the conditions become more condusive for it to happen. It also could continue to have the problem it has now if atmospheric conditions so dictate. It is best to keep things in perspective and try as best we can not to get too knee jerk as Isaac evolves. Now back to the programming from people who know what they are talking about...

[muscarem]

I dont know what just happened, but it looks like Isaac just gave himself a little kick in the behind... Increased banding on radar, deeper convection over the center with outflow actually developing now on the west side, and the inflow channel over Cuba, while still fairly dry, may be starting to slowly moisten. I swear, every time we say one thing, it does the opposite

The dry air that was impeding it's development seems to be drifting south and is currently over yucatan now, also it is no longer interacting with the mountains of Cuba, and is over 85-88 degree F waters.

[Meteorcane]

Wundermap seems to be showing 50 mph winds in Key West, and roughly 50mph winds in Sombrero Key

[smw1981]

Here is what is likely going to happen and I'd bet on it. Over night tonight the storm is going to get a lot stronger then tomorrow morning they going to call for evacs last minute (less then 48 hours from landfall) and freak everyone out last minute. They should be starting volunetary evacs this evening, and they should be informing people that this could get real serious to prepare now, not " it might come here it might go to florida, we don't know" And this is also the NHC centers fault for taking so long to drag their track back to the west. Last night 95% of the models shifted to LA/MS but they just put LA back in the "cone" this morning. The track was still going to Mobile/Pensacola this morning. People wake up, see that, and think it's all clear.

NOAGUY..I am just curious as to what exactly you want them to say? The most reliable model has this going into Florida, the second most reliable has it going into the Louisiana. They REALLY don't know, and it most definitely could still go to Florida. Also, I have to respectfully disagree with you that "this" is the NHC's fault, because I think they are working their butts off to make sure everyone gets the information they need. Lastly, and maybe this is just an FYI, but I can assure you that they have been in talks with your local EMA since at least yesterday, if not before. Although the NHC can advise the mayor to start evacuation procedures, it is he (and/or the Governor) who makes that call, not the NHC.

[otowntiger]

Interesting that they lowered the intensity for the storm. We'll see if this is just a little setback or a sign of things to come.

I'm not one bit surprised. Have you seen what Isaac's done to this point? Right, not much. Of course yes he brought a lot of flooding rain to Haiti but frankly and sadly a tropical disturbance could be a significant threat there. Isaac has not shown the propensity for being intense and thankfully so given his projected path. Not to say it won't change, I just think like wxman57 said the chances of Isaac being weaker than forecast are greater than those of him being stronger.

[jinftl]

True, but the atmosphere isn't the only factor - Isaac has a huge circulation. Fort Lauderdale had a gust to 64mph with the center of the 65 mph storm 230 miles away. When a storm has such a big circulation, it is less able to rapidly change intensity up or down. May explain why he remained intact for the most part even after spending time over Hispanola and Cuba. Other storms have died over those landmasses.

This also means Isaac is not going to spin up a classic eyewall with a shrinking eye nearly as quickly as a storm smaller in diameter and circulation. Instead, the intense weather is being spread far out. another storm that had this issue - Ike. Huge in size, no reason he shouldn't have gone from a Cat 2 to a major traversing the same hot Gulf from Cuba to Texas. Instead, the energy got spread out over a huge area and you had a huge cat 2 that was able to drum up a major surge.

While I know far far less than many of you, please remember that tropical systems act according to the environment they are in. Just because Isaac has had a problem consolidating so far does not mean that he can't do so in the future if the conditions become more condusive for it to happen. It also could continue to have the problem it has now if atmospheric conditions so dictate. It is best to keep things in perspective and try as best we can not to get too knee jerk as Isaac evolves. Now back to the programming from people who know what they are talking about...

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Latest

[wx247]

True, but the atmosphere isn't the only factor - Isaac has a huge circulation. Fort Lauderdale had a gust to 64mph with the center of the 65 mph storm 230 miles away. When a storm has such a big circulation, it is less able to rapidly change intensity up or down. May explain why he remained intact for the most part even after spending time over Hispanola and Cuba. Other storms have died over those landmasses.

This also means Isaac is not going to spin up a classic eyewall with a shrinking eye nearly as quickly as a storm smaller in diameter and circulation. Instead, the intense weather is being spread far out. another storm that had this issue - Ike. Huge in size, no reason he shouldn't have gone from a Cat 2 to a major traversing the same hot Gulf from Cuba to Texas. Instead, the energy got spread out over a huge area and you had a huge cat 2 that was able to drum up a major surge.

Agreed. I was just responding to a lot of posts that because Isaac has been weak all along and has had some dry air problems that that means it will remain an issue.

[muscarem]

...Isaac has not strengthened...




summary of 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...23.9n 81.5w
about 50 mi...85 km SSE of Key West Florida
about 75 mi...120 km NE of Havana Cuba
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...WNW or 300 degrees at 18 mph...30 km/h
minimum central pressure...994 mb...29.35 inches

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... P9qLUsz.99

Sure it has, silly! the pressure dropped a millibar from 995 to 994

[GCRain]

I just noticed something, the LLCC seems to be being sucked into the convection, hence the northward jog now it seems to be back to WNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

From the 11a.m. advisory to the 2p.m. update there has been no gain in latitude.Both came in at 23.9 N.Where's the northward jog?

[muscarem]

I just noticed something, the LLCC seems to be being sucked into the convection, hence the northward jog now it seems to be back to WNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

From the 11a.m. advisory to the 2p.m. update there has been no gain in latitude.Both came in at 23.9 N.Where's the northward jog?

Hurricanes wobble.. Can't really rely on a sat loop or radar unless you look at it over a longer period.
The overall motion estimate is 300 degrees which is W-NW motion currently.

[Hurricaneman]

I just noticed something, the LLCC seems to be being sucked into the convection, hence the northward jog now it seems to be back to WNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

From the 11a.m. advisory to the 2p.m. update there has been no gain in latitude.Both came in at 23.9 N.Where's the northward jog?

I guess I've been staring at radars too long anywho I basically said it was a wobble for a couple of frames and its resuming its motion


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[GCRain]

I just noticed something, the LLCC seems to be being sucked into the convection, hence the northward jog now it seems to be back to WNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

From the 11a.m. advisory to the 2p.m. update there has been no gain in latitude.Both came in at 23.9 N.Where's the northward jog?

I guess I've been staring at radars too long anywho I basically said it was a wobble for a couple of frames and its resuming its motion


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yep,I think we're all getting tired and red eyed from watching this thing.If the latitude stayed the same, wonder why NHC says west northwest.Wouldn't that be a westward movement?

[Sanibel]

IMO Isaac is reacting to the Gulf Stream and improving. (This should not stop once it feeds off the Loop Current with its south inflow)

[GCRain]

All set and ready to put my plan into action here on the MS Gulf Coast.Now,it's just a waiting game.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Looks like conditions are better than earlier in miami.