ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

No one is at fault here, we need to stop with the hype and speculation here. Let's calm down and look at the facts here. This is a 60mph tropical storm right now, its not even officially forecast to be a major yet and you all are looking at it like its already Katrina number 2. While personally, I do believe this storm has the potential to be a major, I'm pretty thankful right now for all the skepticism on the other side keeping this place in check, because if we all believe this thing was gonna blow up, the board would be insane right now.

[Nimbus]

Wundermap seems to be showing 50 mph winds in Key West, and roughly 50mph winds in Sombrero Key

Thats what recon is finding at the moment. The latest burst of convection may drop the pressure a bit in the next few recon passes.

Looks like the models shifted west since yesterday. The thinking is that the storm is moving a little too fast to catch the next weakness in the ridge? Could slow down once it gets out into the gulf if he intensifies and that is a big if. We have seen storms get their cores torn up over the Yucatan then roll north into the gulf coast without ever recovering.

Isaac still seems to be able to generate a CDO so he may go through rapid intensification later tonight perhaps with the sunset diurnal.

[jinftl]

2pm, Virginia Key (right off the Rickenbacker Causeway that connects downtown Miami to Key Biscayne) is reporting the following winds:

VIRGINIA KEY E43G66

Almost gusting to hurricane force while 240 miles away from the center of the 60 mph tropical storm. Ok, sure.

[Sanibel]

Better eyewall-type band forming on radar.


Big change in clouds here to hurricane-looking lower deck in motion.

[Deputy Van Halen]

No one is at fault here, we need to stop with the hype and speculation here. Let's calm down and look at the facts here. This is a 60mph tropical storm right now, its not even officially forecast to be a major yet and you all are looking at it like its already Katrina number 2. While personally, I do believe this storm has the potential to be a major, I'm pretty thankful right now for all the skepticism on the other side keeping this place in check, because if we all believe this thing was gonna blow up, the board would be insane right now.

Are there any recent examples, of storms that didn't reach hurricane strength until they entered the gulf, and then blew up into a major destructive storm? Rita doesn't count since it was Cat 1 before it got to the gulf.

[Hurricane Alexis]

About 8,400 power outages here in miami-dade.

[tolakram]

Latest saved radar loop from Key West

[SouthernBreeze]

Watching the live Duval Street Webcam in Key West, the wind appears to barely be blowing - the wind is only lightly blowing through people's hair there.

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

-NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN AS SUCH, JUST AN OPINION FROM AN AMATEUR WEATHER ENTHUSIAST-

Well, currently it has the biggest blow up of convection over the center and to the left of where the center is forecast to move since being under Hispaniola. If this big area can persists for the next few hours (I think it will now) pressure should keep falling and finally start to consolidate and develop a closed eye wall. Also, outflow looks really good from the southern side going counter clockwise all the way around to the western side. If it can keep from pulling in dry air on the quad that isn't that moist yet "look out".

[WxEnthus]

Whats the levee situation in NOLA like now? I wouldn't imagine this thing has the potential to become as horrible as Katrina was.

Officially I don't know what condition they are in but a civil engineer friend from NOLA who worked on the repair/maintenance of the levees recently told me they are still in terrible shape and were not repaired up to the standards he felt comfortable with. Obviously, that's just one person's opinion but his comments leave me concerned for the residents of the area.

[imetrice]

LA Governor Bobby Jindal holding a meeting at 3:15pm. I would expect to see things escalate rapidly this afternoon. It's TIME to get the word out. I've contacted everyone I know in New Orleans urging them to be prepared to leave tonight or tomorrow morning. The attitude is "huh?" This is scary.

Me too PT...I've moved to the Pacific Northwest since Gustav, but I still keep a close watch on storms. I sent a heads up to everyone, and they seem to be totally unaware....even if it doesn't come their way, it doesn't hurt to be prepared.

[jlauderdal]

Watching the live Duval Street Webcam in Key West, the wind appears to barely be blowing - the wind is only lightly blowing through people's hair there.

they are under the center which would explain why it is barely blowing there

[6SpeedTA95]

Latest saved radar loop from Key West

[img]http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/5509/zzwunidsmap.gif[/mg]

Structure is definitely hanging tough and now there's been some clear convection on the IR loops. We should have more recon data within an hour or so.

[ObsessedMiami]

There is a clear wedge on the southeastern side of circulation where precipitation has dropped off. Is that expected to fill back in as Issac moves on and perhaps wraps up? Or is something inhibiting that side of the storm? Is it Cuba still preventing moisture flowing into the center of circulation?

[TwisterFanatic]

Looks like on the AVN loop the convection might be trying to expand over the center.

[stormhunter7]

to me this is tells me were about to see Isaac take off.. and gain/build storms.... the last VDM

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,394m (4,573ft)

Isaac COC is getting ready to fire off i think. Yes, i see the dry air to the SE of Center, but with Isaac over the gulf stream waters, its just gonna take one updraft tstorm to get things going i think. Time will tell...

[ConvergenceZone]

Watching the live Duval Street Webcam in Key West, the wind appears to barely be blowing - the wind is only lightly blowing through people's hair there.

I noticed that too. The center isn't that far away from Key West, but by watching that cam, you realize that there just isn't much in the way of winds with this tropical storm. Life goes on down there just like normal.

[TwisterFanatic]

Watching the live Duval Street Webcam in Key West, the wind appears to barely be blowing - the wind is only lightly blowing through people's hair there.

I noticed that too. The center isn't that far away from Key West, but by watching that cam, you realize that there just isn't much in the way of winds with this tropical storm. Life goes on down there just like normal.

Well, they were in a lull. Nice little band fixing to through Key West.

[ravyrn]

Are there any recent examples, of storms that didn't reach hurricane strength until they entered the gulf, and then blew up into a major destructive storm? Rita doesn't count since it was Cat 1 before it got to the gulf.

Bret of '99 and Opal of '95.

[Meteorcane]

Watching the live Duval Street Webcam in Key West, the wind appears to barely be blowing - the wind is only lightly blowing through people's hair there.

I noticed that too. The center isn't that far away from Key West, but by watching that cam, you realize that there just isn't much in the way of winds with this tropical storm. Life goes on down there just like normal.

Sombrero key has been reporting 50 mph sustained winds >60 mph gusts have been felt in coastal Miami-Dade/Broward I wouldn't say no winds.