ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthFLTropics]

HERE WE GO... Splash Location: 24.02N 81.69W
Splash Time: 18:49Z

992mb (29.29 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) air temp 27.8°C (82.0°F) dwpt 26.8°C (80.2°F) wind dir 230° (from the SW) wind spd 6 knots (7 mph)

Yep, wind increases usually follow pressure drops, so perhaps within 6 hours, could be up to 65 or 70 mph...

1709z was 996mb.... 1846z is 992mb... i don't think current AFRecon will make another pass, they have been out there a long time, they got a long flight back to KAFB and should reaching the end of there trip and should be turning home soon.

I would assume that KAFB will be evacuated pending the forecast for landfall for Isaac. Where will the HH relocate to? Macdill?

SFT

[bella_may]

Well it has been 2498 days since the last landfalling hurricane in Florida (Wilma) and based on the current trend I think we are going to keep that record intact (for at least a another day or so pending location of the GOM landfall). Center looks like it is going to just miss Key West to the south and at any rate it hasn't been classified as a cane yet anyway. Once again Florida appears no hurricane streak seems to remain intact. It amazes me that it has been 7 years since a cane has hit Florida. Our luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

With all of that being said, we are sending good vibes and prayers to everyone on the Gulf Coast. Isaac could be a totally different animal when it gets to you so please take precautions and be prepared.

SFT

i wouldn't say the far western panhandle is out of the woods yet by any means

[SouthFLTropics]

Well it has been 2498 days since the last landfalling hurricane in Florida (Wilma) and based on the current trend I think we are going to keep that record intact (for at least a another day or so pending location of the GOM landfall). Center looks like it is going to just miss Key West to the south and at any rate it hasn't been classified as a cane yet anyway. Once again Florida appears no hurricane streak seems to remain intact. It amazes me that it has been 7 years since a cane has hit Florida. Our luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

With all of that being said, we are sending good vibes and prayers to everyone on the Gulf Coast. Isaac could be a totally different animal when it gets to you so please take precautions and be prepared.

SFT

i wouldn't say the far western panhandle is out of the woods yet by any means

I would agree with that...that is why I put in parenthesis (for at least another day or so pending location of the GOM landfall). Regardless, everyone on the North GOM needs to remain vigilant and prepared.

SFT

[ozonepete]

Also, did any body see the small votice in radar image on Key West in last our.. it rotated out the the NW around the coc?

And it's now on the west side? Since it's in the developing eyewall, it appears to be an eyewall mesovortex. They are not yet fully understood, but they basically are a large supercellular thunderstorm embedded in the eyewall. They are particularly dangerous because they have winds blowing counterclockwise around them that can be stronger than the eyewall winds themselves. Thus you can get tremendous gusts from the oposite direction you would expect. Stacy Stewart and his colleague Wallace Hogsett have studied them and have recently given a presentation on these; I believe it will be published soon.

[Wx_Warrior]

Louisiana Governor Jindal will be hold a conference at 3:15pm.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This is a big storm, it is goning to take the circulation a long time to consolidate. However in a large storm like this there is more kinetic energy than in a much smaller, tighter system. In layman's terms that means both tropical storm & even hurricane force spread over a large area, and a large overall storm surge (also spread over a large area). Ike & Katrina are good examples of this phenomenon. My recommendation to anyone who thinks they can ride this system out because it is only forecast to be a category two is, just don't.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Louisiana Governor Jindal will be hold a conference at 3:15pm.

Thank you...everyone, please keep us posted with what you hear out of LA

[bella_may]

storm surge forecast http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

[ozonepete]

Absolutely, hybrid.

Isaac has worked out its symmetry issues now. It also has really great outflow and I see at least 2 outflow jets. All this as it gets into a very favorable environment for strengthening due to good mid-level RH values and high SSTs. Seems destined for RI now.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bella_may]

could someone post a current loop of isaac? Also, do you think this will be a cane by 8?

[Pileus]

Where are the Storm2K News Feeds ?

[Wx_Warrior]

Live coverage of the presser can be watched here:

http://www.wdsu.com/weather/hurricanes/ ... index.html

[thatwhichisnt]

NOLA Mayor is speaking live. will update

Asking residents to prepare, hard to tell where it will go.
12-16 inches of rain
Preparing to shelter in place Board up windows, etc.
Another press conference, unless things change, at lunch tomorrow.
Be ready to go any direction that is called for
No airport or superdome will be used as shelter if there is an evacuation.

[rainstorm]

could someone post a current loop of isaac? Also, do you think this will be a cane by 8?

i dont have a SST map, but one map has been going around thats very misleading. oceanic heat content is quite high right up to the coast.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Superdome, Convention center WILL NOT be used as shelter's of last resort...per the NOLA mayor

[TwisterFanatic]

Isaac organizing fairly good right now, imo. The dry air from the southeast that was getting wrapped into the storm is being replaced by convection.

[imetrice]

NOLA Mayor is speaking live. will update

Asking residents to prepare, hard to tell where it will go.
12-16 inches of rain
Preparing to shelter in place

I guess with all the uncertainty on the track, it's too soon to call for an evacuation. At what point, however, would it be to late to do so? I think it is wise to suggest that people prepare, but since this will no doubt be a rain event regardless of the actual land fall point, it may be a good idea to start evacuating those who would not be able to do so on a moments notice.


Disclaimer: I am only an amateur hurricane fanatic. Please refer to the NHC or other official weather source for accurate forecasts.

[ColdFusion]

Press conference reminded me of the initial Nagin Katrina conference, the one before the NHC called him and said, "are you kidding me?"

[tolakram]

Well it has been 2498 days since the last landfalling hurricane in Florida (Wilma) and based on the current trend I think we are going to keep that record intact (for at least a another day or so pending location of the GOM landfall). Center looks like it is going to just miss Key West to the south and at any rate it hasn't been classified as a cane yet anyway. Once again Florida appears no hurricane streak seems to remain intact. It amazes me that it has been 7 years since a cane has hit Florida. Our luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

With all of that being said, we are sending good vibes and prayers to everyone on the Gulf Coast. Isaac could be a totally different animal when it gets to you so please take precautions and be prepared.

SFT

What about Key West? Not mainland Florida, but Florida.

[sikkar]

Pressure is 997.2 @ this Key West buoy.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kywf1