ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KimmieLa]

Looks like the center is going to miss the keys to the south.

Not a met, seek professional help.

[imetrice]

NOLA Mayor is speaking live. will update

Asking residents to prepare, hard to tell where it will go.
12-16 inches of rain
Preparing to shelter in place

I guess with all the uncertainty on the track, it's too soon to call for an evacuation. At what point, however, would it be to late to do so? I think it is wise to suggest that people prepare, but since this will no doubt be a rain event regardless of the actual land fall point, it may be a good idea to start evacuating those who would not be able to do so on a moments notice.


Disclaimer: I am only an amateur hurricane fanatic. Please refer to the NHC or other official weather source for accurate forecasts.

Which direction should they go, East to fla see EURO, west to Texas see GFS, north could be a major rain event but probably the best option, south is no good unless you are adventurous.
Hopefully only the low lying areas will need to be vacated.

Good point! I am so glad I am not the one who has to make those decisions....

[pricetag56]

Still no convection on it's SE side though.

thats because the inflow channel is still over cuba. This probably wont go away until Isaac has cleared cuba entirely.

I said this would be a problem 2 days ago

[galvestontx]

bros is this coming to setx?
I see you guys are taking the middle of ukmet and gfs but what are the chances Issac straight up takes the GFS? School me please

[ozonepete]

the convection still is not concentrating near the center. wont strengthen like that.

Needs to get further away from Cuba.

[monicaei]

There's a hollow center circle forming on radar.

Is that good or bad?

[ROCK]

basically it shot the lower straits closer to Cuba....still though FL is feeling most of Isaac's wrath attm...

[BigB0882]

It looks like most of the convection is to the NW of the center. This is the area with no land. I have to imagine this is not going to do anything more than very gradual strengthening until there is no land nearby. CUBA is to the South and SouthEast and Florida is to the NE and neither of those areas have convection around the center. That can't be a coincidence.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, Issaac is ready for take off...By far the best it's looked in it's evolution.....Wind speed should come up within the next 6 hours or so.

[bella_may]

looks better than ever IMO

[ROCK]

bros is this coming to setx?
I see you guys are taking the middle of ukmet and gfs but what are the chances Issac straight up takes the GFS? School me please

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif[/img]

need more model consensus....SE Tx is a long way west...

[Hurricane Alexis]

basically it shot the lower straits closer to Cuba....still though FL is feeling most of Isaac's wrath attm...

Palm Beach county has been getting the worse impacts so far.

[WmE]

There's a hollow center circle forming on radar.

Is that good or bad?

That means that it might get better organized. So bad.

[wxwatcher1999]

Am I right by saying the farther south the farther west it will go?

[Portastorm]

bros is this coming to setx?
I see you guys are taking the middle of ukmet and gfs but what are the chances Issac straight up takes the GFS? School me please

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

Please take model discussions to the Isaac model thread. Thanks.

[tolakram]

Well it has been 2498 days since the last landfalling hurricane in Florida (Wilma) and based on the current trend I think we are going to keep that record intact (for at least a another day or so pending location of the GOM landfall). Center looks like it is going to just miss Key West to the south and at any rate it hasn't been classified as a cane yet anyway. Once again Florida appears no hurricane streak seems to remain intact. It amazes me that it has been 7 years since a cane has hit Florida. Our luck is bound to run out sooner or later.

With all of that being said, we are sending good vibes and prayers to everyone on the Gulf Coast. Isaac could be a totally different animal when it gets to you so please take precautions and be prepared.

SFT

What about Key West? Not mainland Florida, but Florida.

Please read what I said carefully... Center appears it's going to miss Key West to the south and it is not classified as a hurricane at this point. Florida has gone 2498 days without a DIRECT HIT FROM A HURRICANE...

SFT

Yep, I missed it, I'm sorry. Now stop with the attitude.

[galvestontx]

Am I right by saying the farther south the farther west it will go?

the farther west it goes the farther west it goes

[Hurricane Cheese]

Here comes Jindahl...on CNN right now

[ozonepete]

bros is this coming to setx?
I see you guys are taking the middle of ukmet and gfs but what are the chances Issac straight up takes the GFS? School me please

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... _model.gif

The NHC (and most of us who try to forecast them) most often takes the middle of the pack or the consensus of the models. Remember the models, which run twice a day in the morning and evening, also change from run to run, often fairly significantly. The most recent GFS run is the first one going that far west and so far none of the others do. That makes it an "outlier" that the NHC won't trust right now. If all or most of the models start shifting that way the NHC will move the track westward accordingly. Right now you have to trust their judgment because no one really does this better than them and their record on track has gotten really good. Except that the track past 3 days has an average error of hundreds of miles, so you can't trust the track past 3 days too much.

[fasterdisaster]

Inflow certainly appears to be getting much better on the southern side.