ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve Cosby]

pay attention to the speed of the storm it moved from 18 mph to 16

Explain please what the speed has to do with it and which way will it go in reference to the speed

A fast moving storm does not organize as quickly.

But a very slow moving storm can use up all the Oceanic Heat Content too quick.

A fine line between slow and fast motion.

(also the part others are posting about regarding interaction with other meteorological features...)

[Stormlover2012]

if it gains speed it could be picked up by trough of it slows down it could miss trough all about timing

[tolakram]

Latest. Convection still building.

[TideJoe]

5pm track has shifted and is right over me! Under Hurricane Warning also. Hopefully the track will shift east and I'll be on weak side.....Isaac is looking better and better.....MGC

I keep waiting on it to "bomb" so to speak. It just seems like yesterday I was cleaning up after Katrina.

[TexasF6]

He is organising very well right now, IMHO. Forcasters have never had intensity forecasting down to an exact science, so I take heed in the fact that things can change very quickly with a tropical system in the GOM.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

-NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NEVER BE TAKEN AS SUCH, JUST AN OPINION FROM AN AMATEUR WEATHER ENTHUSIAST-

Looks like it may have a lot of dry air headed for its inflow channel headed NNE right now on the southwestern quad of the storm and still not becoming moist on this quad of the circulation. If convection fails to be persistent enough down the road in this south western quad, Isaac is not going anywhere.

[brunota2003]

You can kiss goodbye any hope that Isaac (or at least a good portion of the storm) will miss the nitrous Gulf loop-current.

Well, the NHC isn't very robust on their strength forecast, so I don't think they think it's going to be that big of deal...

And we all know that intensity forecasting is one of the hardest things to do with TCs...so it's better to be prepped for a category or two higher, than not.

[stormhunter7]

This is the CDO that will get Isaac going i think. Very symmetrical banding on CDO We should see winds come up now, since Kermit is on scene (NOAA42). I notice some light shear over western Cuba coming up form south... but i think the center is now far enough away from the Cuba coast and its now over the Gulf Stream... These doesn't appear to be negative factors from stopping the round of convection near the center, IMO.

[rainstorm]

you have to wonder if a storm this year will have a central core.

[Shuriken]

You can kiss goodbye any hope that Isaac (or at least a good portion of the storm) will miss the nitrous Gulf loop-current.

Well, the NHC isn't very robust on their strength forecast, so I don't think they think it's going to be that big of deal...

It should be -- Hurricane Frederic was still a strong TS while exiting western Cuba with about the same time-left-until-landfall (toward the same destination at Mobile, AL) -- it was an intensifying cat-4 at landfall. Isaac has a larger circulation than Frederic, meaning it won't be wasting a lot of energy growing bigger as opposed to growing more intense.

[psyclone]

You can kiss goodbye any hope that Isaac (or at least a good portion of the storm) will miss the nitrous Gulf loop-current.

the loop current has closed off an eddy to the southwest and is impotent at the moment anyway. beyond that, this system has failed to take advantage of deep, warm water thus far in its life cycle. although it does look more and more impressive at the moment with deep convection bursting near the center.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

You can kiss goodbye any hope that Isaac (or at least a good portion of the storm) will miss the nitrous Gulf loop-current.

Well, the NHC isn't very robust on their strength forecast, so I don't think they think it's going to be that big of deal...

And we all know that intensity forecasting is one of the hardest things to do with TCs...so it's better to be prepped for a category or two higher, than not.

Yea, I'm just a bit shocked that the NHC thinks it will take another 24 to 36 hours to increase ony 15 MPH than it is already....The only thing I can make from that is that they are seeing something we aren't.....

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

you have to wonder if a storm this year will have a central core.

Yeah, I know. It's almost as if the southern Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are just to hostile these days for any cyclone to become a major hurricane. 2005 really did spoil us.

[Shuriken]

this system has failed to take advantage of deep, warm water thus far in its life cycle.

The "fuel" in the eastern Gulf is a LOT higher octane than that of the eastern Caribbean or central Atlantic:

[rainstorm]

You can kiss goodbye any hope that Isaac (or at least a good portion of the storm) will miss the nitrous Gulf loop-current.

the loop current has closed off an eddy to the southwest and is impotent at the moment anyway. beyond that, this system has failed to take advantage of deep, warm water thus far in its life cycle. although it does look more and more impressive at the moment with deep convection bursting near the center.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

yea, im not surprised the nhc is ramping this thing down. its still moving too fast.

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

rapid scan close up loop.

[fasterdisaster]

Not sure why people are sounding the death knell for Isaac. It's exploding ATM.

[Aric Dunn]

pay attention to the speed of the storm it moved from 18 mph to 16

it appears to have slowed way way down now. calculated. under 10 a while ago just need another vdm
to re calculate.

[TwisterFanatic]

Not sure why people are sounding the death knell for Isaac. It's exploding ATM.

It's not S2K without over reactions.

[rainstorm]

you have to wonder if a storm this year will have a central core.

Yeah, I know. It's almost as if the southern Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are just to hostile these days for any cyclone to become a major hurricane. 2005 really did spoil us.

im still wondering if isaac can set a record for the longest lived TS that never became a cane. its been so long since the GOM produced anything other than sloppy messes.