ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

right now posts saying its going to bomb and posts saying its not getting its act together are running neck and neck.

[rolltide]

Can someone please tell me when the next euro model will be run. In central time please.

Thanks

[catskillfire51]

I've been following this site since the Coast Guard stationed me down here in texas last year. It really is great information. I was trying to google some stuff I was reading on the discussion and I came across this. Hurricane isaac in 1900. I know Isaac is not forcasted to come to texas. Would be interesting if two Isaacs came close to the same landfall, both with the same forcasted category 4's. Sorry this isn't exactly related. Best wishes to anyone involved.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1900_ ... _track.png

[bucman1]

The slow down usually means change of direction and / or rapid strengthning.

[PTPatrick]

I think undertrained to consolidate under the MLC center right over/slightly wnw of the Dry tortugas. Jmho. If that happens it would be near the north edge of the cone again.


Not official. Just me trying to make sense of this. Don't use my brain farting for your planning purposes.

[SunnyThoughts]

Can someone please tell me when the next euro model will be run. In central time please.

Thanks

about 1am central when it starts rolling out you can watch it play out in the model thread when that happens.

[rainstorm]

this stalled motion is likely the center about to be pulled north in the convection or even a type of reformation..

you could very well be right. i just dont like the look of that one ball of convection. it looks like its about to be choked off. if this convection dies like its been doing for days this will be a minimal cane at the very best.

[6SpeedTA95]

right now posts saying its going to bomb and posts saying its not getting its act together are running neck and neck.

I would bet most of the people saying its "bombing" or "about to bomb" think its about to get a lot stronger. In otherwords the central pressure is going to dive bomb from say 992 to something like 970 or 960 or 950.

My experience on S2k has been when people say a tropical system is going to "bomb" that its going to intensify.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Give it a few hrs. and you're gonna see an eyewall. It's about to bomb out. This reminds me of Charley.

Guess we'll see if Bastardi has been right all along

I think it will bomb out too. He has predicted a crazy drop in pressure for the next 24 hours. Anyone have a site for a good WV loop to see if this is still possible? With all that heat in the GOM, i think we could see a monster in the am

[Sanibel]

This burst doesn't exclude projected intensification potential.


You're seeing the predicted post-Gulf Stream reaction.

[bucman1]

What ramifications if any would reformation or center being pulled north do to the track?

[Nederlander]

I've been following this site since the Coast Guard stationed me down here in texas last year. It really is great information. I was trying to google some stuff I was reading on the discussion and I came across this. Hurricane isaac in 1900. I know Isaac is not forcasted to come to texas. Would be interesting if two Isaacs came close to the same landfall, both with the same forcasted category 4's. Sorry this isn't exactly related. Best wishes to anyone involved.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1900_ ... _track.png

Well technically the 1900 storm wasn't "Hurricane Isaac". Storms weren't named back then. It has been since nicknamed Isaac's storm after meteorologist Isaac Cline. But facts aside, I do see your point.

[Time_Zone]

this stalled motion is likely the center about to be pulled north in the convection or even a type of reformation..

you could very well be right. i just dont like the look of that one ball of convection. it looks like its about to be choked off. if this convection dies like its been doing for days this will be a minimal cane at the very best.

It has plenty of time to build more convection, although I do agree with you that it hasn't been really getting its act together as much as expected in the past.

[zippity]

if this convection dies like its been doing for days this will be a minimal cane at the very best.

...minimal 'cane sounds rather nice right now... is it too late to hope?

[cheezyWXguy]

Not that I have any credibility, but I think Aric's probably right. The center on radar for much of the day has been to the southeast of the heaviest bands, only with at most the NW quadrant of an eyewall forming. As of the last half hour though, there's been a lot of criss-crossing going on and it looks like the center is trying to reform in the middle of the heaviest precipitation. very complex looking, I don't think Ive ever watched it happen before on radar. If this is the case though, and the center has been pulled in, we should see strengthening tonight.

[dazie]

What ramifications if any would reformation or center being pulled north do to the track?

Yes, I would like to know the answer to this as well.

[bella_may]

gust have definitely picked up over key west in the last hour http://www.liveduvalstreet.com/

[6SpeedTA95]

What ramifications if any would reformation or center being pulled north do to the track?

Depends on the significance of the change. The circulation is pretty broad now and I'd expect a "center" formation based somewhat on how convection sets up around the circulation but I wouldn't expect the storm center per say to change by 60 miles to the north as an example.

But any moderate changes now could potentially impact landfall by 100 miles or more. A significant north change in the center could move landfall further east by a large amount. But I think as disorganized as this storm has been and as wide as the circulation center has been it would be very premature to attempt to make such claims at this point in time.

I think we should see how it sets up, wayyyy too many variables at this point.

[ColinDelia]

My experience on S2k has been when people say a tropical system is going to "bomb" that its going to intensify.

My experience is that as long as 3 people are on s2k with a pulse at least one of them will be saying its about to bomb.

That being said there is definitely an expanding area of cold tops this evening. What that equates to as far as intensification we will have to see

[6SpeedTA95]

My experience on S2k has been when people say a tropical system is going to "bomb" that its going to intensify.

My experience is that as long as 3 people are on s2k with a pulse at least one of them will be saying its about to bomb.

That being said there is definitely an expanding area of cold tops this evening. What that equates to as far as intensification we will have to see

Absolutely...people always think its going to "bomb", thats fine, I'll read their posts too.