ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rtd2]

Watching this storms every move is really starting to make me crazy. Need to take a break, and watch the Hallmark Channel. Looks like it is heading a little north of west slowly right now. Have no idea what it could mean, plenty of implications, and my brain is tired. Gonna check back at the next NHC update. I appreciate all the great information everyone is sharing.

Not a met, seek professional help.

This far out I dont watch each loop or radar or even pay attention to the "looks like its" post I just depend on recon and advisory and what a lot of the mets here say....anything other will drive you nuts...100MILES FROM Landfall WOBBLES begin to matter to me.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Give it a few hrs. and you're gonna see an eyewall. It's about to bomb out. This reminds me of Charley.

What evidence do you have to support your prediction?

I can't state with 100% assurance but I do know we are in the peak of hurricane season, the water is hot and the Gulf of Mexico has had some hurricanes in the past. The conditions are pretty good. What evidence do you have that its not going to bomb?

I'm not saying it is going to bomb or it isn't. I was asking, why you thought it was. Making a prediction like that would be like me saying that what appears to be a stall right now is actually a change in direction and it is going to go back across South Florida, go up the east coast and hit NC as a cat 5. Without evidence to back it up, it is unfounded. If you are going to make a prediction, you need to have evidence to back it up.

[Camille(CaneOnAPill)]

Could the upper level low to Isaac southwest, the ridge to its northeast, and trough sinking down from the north together be causing isaac to slow down all of a sudden?

[Hurricane Alexis]

This stall would certainly extend TS conditions over SFL and the keys.

[Hurrilurker]

I don't know if I'd say it's going to "bomb", but I don't know how anyone can say it's not getting better organized. CDO and convection are getting more symmetrical around the center, the dry air that was wrapped inside is getting spit out, and there are few obstacles to strengthening. It's going to be over open, warm water, with moderately low shear forecast. It would be odd for it to not strengthen significantly. I predict within 12 hours we will see the gap on the S/SW side fill in, and we'll see an eye appear.

[Sanibel]

I don't think it has stalled. I think the system is strong enough to pull the mid level over it causing the illusion of stall.

[Aric Dunn]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

[CajunMama]

Updated 'action zones', from TWC:

http://i45.tinypic.com/28l3v4z.jpg

I have been here since the beginning as an inaugural member of S2K and until the last few days have never seen this graphic. What exactly does "action" mean, please? Thanks,

And good luck and be safe to all who may be on the path of Isaac. Hopefully, he will not strengthen too much more but my thoughts will be will all of you.

We have had very little effect from this storm-moderate rain and some wind but nothing strong. Tonight and tomorrow morning are supposed to be stronger. But since he is moving west away from the coast, I am not expecting much more than we have already seen. Nice to dodge another bullet.

[brunota2003]

Well, this is my last graphic for Isaac. I will be away from the computer tomorrow through Wednesday, so I will not be able to make any more of these (would love to make them all the way through landfall, maybe afterwards, but still, defeats the purpose either way). Remember this is for wind only, this doesn't reflect tornadoes, rain, flooding, surge, etc...and the reason it is so "big" (mainly the TS force) is that it uses the 20%+ lines from the NHC graphics, which naturally expand outward with time/uncertainty. This is unofficial, and just because you aren't in the red doesn't mean you won't see hurricane force winds (the area of reds will obviously change between now and Wednesday, especially with any strength/track changes). Hope you all have enjoyed the map!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[caneman]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

That would still be 14 - 15 mph though.

[chris_fit]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

Wouldn't that mean it's moving at >10mph?

[CronkPSU]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

I'll bite...which direction

[pgoss11]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

Wow..this wasn't forecast.. this could be the proverbial "fly in the ointment".. NHC are certainly earning their money with this storm

[Aric Dunn]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

That would still be 14 - 15 mph though.

well that is just an estimate. have to wait for the dropsonde. very little movement looks more like a cyclonic loop

[Sanibel]

recon did another pass. it barely moved in the last 45 min I think about 10 miles. lol

Any chance on posting a recon graphic to show that? (10 miles in 45 minutes is average forward speed)

[BigEasy]

Question for someone smarter than me: would a slower motion make it more or less likely that it makes the connection with the trough which is moving towards the southeast? I can't figure out if the GFS is sticking to a further west solution because Isaac gets to the coast too fast before the trough gets very far east, or does the trough simply not dig far enough south to catch it? If it's a matter of the first, then I would think it slowing and waiting on the trough, so to speak, would make it more likely to follow more of the Euro, CMC, NAM solutions.

well based on the fact the gfs is quite a bit faster than the euro i would say thats the case atm but its hard to tell. also the euro has a more pronounced 500mb vorticity and this feels the weakness more. so we will just have to wait and see... this stalling is not making it easy to make a reliable forecast. no models foretasted this to happen

No where is it officially being reported Isaac has stalled, as far as I am aware. That being said, what lends credence to the stall status? Curious.

IMO, the overall mass of clouds, is still moving, while the LLC and MLC are simply moving around themselves, sort of, trying to allign, while Isaac still is moving forward ahead.

[SoupBone]

I've asked a few times but can someone please post a link to a loop that shows the trough and its movement. Thanks.

[Sanibel]

Wouldn't that mean it's moving at >10mph?

13.2

[Aric Dunn]

Wouldn't that mean it's moving at >10mph?

13.2

again that was just an estimate have to wait for the dropsonde

[mvtrucking]

The Texas pro mets haven't been posting for a while, wonder what they are thinking about this stall?

Looking at the next Forecast Pt 27/0600 (11am Monday) it looks right on course to me?