ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TwisterFanatic]

Check the water vapor satellite, Isaac seems to be struggling with the dry air to the south. The center seems again detached from the convection, and it's still moving west. I doubt it'll do much until 24 hours out or so.

Center is still under the convection.

[DukeDevil91]

Meh. Dry air is pumping in hard from the southwest. Once it gets into it's core, convection dies down and Issac remains a weak hurricane until landfall.

[tgenius]

Not much in terms of rain in Miami anymore but considerably more wind I'm hearing in the last hour. I'm shocked how many around me (including me) that put up their hurricane shutters, and many aren't even accordion they are panel shutters!

[TwisterFanatic]

Meh. Dry air is pumping in hard from the southwest. Once it gets into it's core, convection dies down and Issac remains a weak hurricane until landfall.

Proof? Model support disagrees completely.

[rtd2]

This imho is EVIDENCE of what happens when NBC Takes over a Weather Channel...FEAR the Graphic...simple answer===CORPORATE GARBAGE!

Nobody said, "Fear the graphic". If you look at the current watch/warning areas, you'll see how the graphic coincides with what is transpiring in that region. Don't like it? Don't trust it? Don't follow it. Thanks.

Edited to add the link to the legend for that chart:

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hur ... d-20120823

And trust me I DONT ......

[Buckeye05]

it better slow down or its a cat1 at best. JB on the radio still says cat3/4. i dont see how with it decoupled and moving so fast.

It's already at 65mph and improving it's structure fairly well now, it's a slow mover and has a ton of gulf ahead of it. Not sure where you are coming from on that.

[Aric Dunn]

That feature you see is not the surface circ that is farther south. what you see is a mid level circ that is becoming much more defined. its quite likely that either the mlc eventually weakens and new convection build around the center ( but since there appears to be some mid level shear would get blown off again) or the llc reforms under that mlc over the next few hours.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

The center is right under the convection, I have no idea what you guys are looking at. The south side is still weak, but what convection is there is over the center and to the north.

Here here !!!!! I think people are expecting way too much out of Isaac. Just because it isn't bombing, doesn't mean it's not going to in the future. The NHC stated a day ago that there is uncertainty in the forcasted intensity.

[tolakram]

latest saved radar from Key West

[southerngale]

8pm position 24.1°N 82.6°W

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,I know that there are different opinions about how Issac looks,so let's have the discussions go smoothly without straying into heated exchanges.

[deltadog03]

That feature you see is not the surface circ that is farther south. what you see is a mid level circ that is becoming much more defined. its quite likely that either the mlc eventually weakens and new convection build around the center ( but since there appears to be some mid level shear would get blown off again) or the llc reforms under that mlc over the next few hours.

agreed

[Frank P]

I have absolutely no idea what is going on with Isaac right now looking at the most recent radar loop presentation out of Key West....

[SunnyThoughts]

He's trying to close up tighter....few more hours imo

[Buckeye05]

I have absolutely no idea what is going on with Isaac right now looking at the most recent radar loop presentation out of Key West....

Ditto, a lot of disagreement where the COC is.

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 270038
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092012
A. 27/00:01:50Z
B. 24 deg 03 min N
082 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1372 m
D. 49 kt
E. 320 deg 56 nm
F. 044 deg 60 kt
G. 315 deg 139 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 17 C / 1526 m
J. 22 C / 1521 m
K. 19 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 2409A ISAAC OB 04
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NW QUAD 23:17:30Z
;

M and N indicate eyewall condition and size. Still none, so inner core is still not organized.

[Texashawk]

It looks like he's moving... NNE? but obviously that's not the case. Consolidation is the more likely explanation here.

[tgenius]

Why does it look in that radar loop that Isaac is moving NE? Or is it radar playing tricks due to distance?

[brunota2003]

Why is there disagreement? There is recon out there, and they just did a fix!

[crimi481]

Lots dry air coming into center lcation - from the S.W. - caused by that pesky ULL
Not sure how Isaac can be a Major Cane -unless S.E. Gulf moisten up
ULL helped tug it toards its new more west track - but also is really disrupting whole eastern Quads of center

Dry Air:
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

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