ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stephanie]

Do you think Pensacola is still in a precarious position?? I'm about prepped out but still much to do.

You're on the eastern side and the northeastern quadrant is always the worst. If he begins to track further eastward again, you're going to need all of the preparations that you have done and are about to do. I have no idea if he will slide back eastward a bit, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

[tolakram]

Small, rapid scan IR loop, 1 minute images. You can see Isaac continuing to expand.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=500

[pwrdog]

OK, I give up...where is this dry air everyone is mentioning? I can't seem to find it on any map.

The eastern caribbean is pretty dry... Check out water vapor loop of the Caribbean and look towards the Yucatan area and western tip of Cuba...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[Ivanhater]

Do you think Pensacola is still in a precarious position?? I'm about prepped out but still much to do.

Absolutely..the most reliable model the Euro has it hitting Baldwin county which puts Pensacola at the worst spot of the storm.

[HurrMark]

I don't think it will have much of an impact. At 5 PM, the coordinates were 24.2/82.3. The center of the convection is at 24.8/83.0. So maybe a tad to the NW, and it is still moving west. So if it stays WNW for another 60 miles, and goes 1 latitude tick per 2 longitude ticks, it will hit the 25.1/83.9 benchpoint for 06Z tomorrow.

[JamesCaneTracker]

OK, I give up...where is this dry air everyone is mentioning? I can't seem to find it on any map.

The eastern caribbean is pretty dry... Check out water vapor loop of the Caribbean and look towards the Yucatan area and western tip of Cuba...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

That's not the correct sat image to look at to find out about dry air that will adversely effect a Tropical Cyclone. That only shows Upper Level Dry air while it's mid level Dry air that will adversely effect Tropical Cyclones...

[HurrMark]

OK, I give up...where is this dry air everyone is mentioning? I can't seem to find it on any map.

The eastern caribbean is pretty dry... Check out water vapor loop of the Caribbean and look towards the Yucatan area and western tip of Cuba...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

There is some dryness, but it's not SAL-level dry. And I have seen much worse for strengthening hurricanes. Plus, this isn't really the best source to check out what the mid-levels are doing (the SAL charts are probably more appropriate, and I don't see anything negative). I think the only inhibiting factor is the low instability in the Gulf (although that may actually be due to dryness in the mid levels after all).

wxman57, where is that chart you show that indicates instability?

[PerdidoGirl]

PerdidoGirl wrote:
Do you think Pensacola is still in a precarious position?? I'm about prepped out but still much to do.


Absolutely..the most reliable model the Euro has it hitting Baldwin county which puts Pensacola at the worst spot of the storm.

_________________
Michael

I had a feeling you were going to say that. Unfortunately it was my weekend to work, plus I'm first on list for call at the hospital, so it hasn't left much time but we're getting there. This is the first year I have not stocked up on water,batteries, etc - think I broke the karma.

[KWT]

There is some dryness, but it's not SAL-level dry. And I have seen much worse for strengthening hurricanes. Plus, this isn't really the best source to check out what the mid-levels are doing (the SAL charts are probably more appropriate, and I don't see anything negative). I think the only inhibiting factor is the low instability in the Gulf (although that may actually be due to dryness in the mid levels after all).

wxman57, where is that chart you show that indicates instability?

The dry air isn't a major issue, but the big one has ben some mid level shear, which is why the circulation has been constantly on the edge of the convection and why it has thus far not formed an inner core. Its managable shear to be fair, but its not helped when your still taking in some dry air and you've had a prolonged trip near/over land.

[Bocadude85]

Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
FLC085-111-270230-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0018.120827T0201Z-120827T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1001 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...STUART...PALM CITY...JENSEN BEACH...
HOBE SOUND...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WALTON...WHITE CITY...PORT SAINT
LUCIE...

* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT.

* AT 956 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SQUALL LINE MOVING ONSHORE MARTIN AND SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES THAT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO...EXTENDING FROM JUST EAST
OF PORT SAINT LUCIE TO JUST EAST OF JUPITER...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 40
MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2696 8029 2742 8044 2742 8031 2735 8027
2739 8027 2742 8029 2742 8026 2729 8020
2728 8019 2727 8019 2721 8015 2716 8015
2703 8009 2697 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 131DEG 39KT 2694 8006

$$

[SootyTern]

The wind is cranking the hardest it has all day down here, too, and we're not even in the squall lines y'all are getting further north.
Gusting to 45 (50 maybe?) but I can see stars sometimes through the thin cloud layers racing by. Isaac seems up to something right now...

[wx247]

It will be an interesting advisory within the hour. I know a lot of people will be waiting for it. Meanwhile, the 0z models will just be cranking out. I hope everyone within the cone of uncertainty (or close by) is paying attention!

[x-y-no]

The wind is cranking the hardest it has all day down here, too, and we're not even in the squall lines y'all are getting further north.
Gusting to 45 (50 maybe?) but I can see stars sometimes through the thin cloud layers racing by. Isaac seems up to something right now...

Getting some pretty strong storms here in Ft. Lauderdale - lightning as well (which wasn't the case most of the day.)

[wjs3]

End of the world rain right now in NE Fort Lauderdale. Lights flickering....can see sliding glass doors bowing from wind force.

[HurrMark]

The dry air isn't a major issue, but the big one has ben some mid level shear, which is why the circulation has been constantly on the edge of the convection and why it has thus far not formed an inner core. Its managable shear to be fair, but its not helped when your still taking in some dry air and you've had a prolonged trip near/over land.

I see what you mean...it is roughly 8kt at its current position, which is excellent, but is 15 kt near the the convection center....not so excellent. So you may be right. I really wish it was daytime so I could see the vis...

[wjs3]

The wind is cranking the hardest it has all day down here, too, and we're not even in the squall lines y'all are getting further north.
Gusting to 45 (50 maybe?) but I can see stars sometimes through the thin cloud layers racing by. Isaac seems up to something right now...

Getting some pretty strong storms here in Ft. Lauderdale - lightning as well (which wasn't the case most of the day.)

LOL--must be really cranking if two of us post about it!

[pwrdog]

You can also see the spin near the Yucatán producing a little shear.. and the slightly dryer air in that area..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[jinftl]

Power flickering on and off....some of the strongest winds south florida saw are happening right now

Have seen at least 10 lightning bolts in last 2 minutes.

10pm observations:

W PALM BEACH E35G45
FT LAUDERDALE SE29G47
MIAMI SE29G46
VIRGINIA KEY SE41G54

This is a long event!

[wjs3]

LOL! Three of us in Lauderdale. This is quite definitely the worst so far! It's been bad since nightfall, huh?

[JPmia]

The wind is cranking the hardest it has all day down here, too, and we're not even in the squall lines y'all are getting further north.
Gusting to 45 (50 maybe?) but I can see stars sometimes through the thin cloud layers racing by. Isaac seems up to something right now...

Getting some pretty strong storms here in Ft. Lauderdale - lightning as well (which wasn't the case most of the day.)

LOL--must be really cranking if two of us post about it!

You're not the only one.. he's up to something out there because we're getting nailed here in Ft. Lauderdale and lights are flickering (fingers crossed!).. there will be some flooding with this I am sure of that.