ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
randge
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 24
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2007 9:26 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5521 Postby randge » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:55 am

"Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ..."

We're waiting and watching.

Didn't want to be premature, but I wanted to ask any experts online today what they think the wind and/or rain effects will be in the Houston area if the GFS/NAM track today verify for the next few days?

It looks like it's time to start addressing this as a stalled or meandering Isaac looks to be a reasonable possibility.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5522 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:56 am

Portastorm wrote:Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ... :wink:




Hey I got to feed my 18.5 inch guns....they dont call me the ROCK for fun!!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5853
Age: 59
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:
Contact Tireman4

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5523 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:57 am

ROCK wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ... :wink:




Hey I got to feed my 18.5 inch guns....they dont call me the ROCK for fun!!



Oh dear....LOL.....The models have been quite interesting. I think this afternoon will even be more of a treat for those of us who love watching models.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   
Top
Stormlover2012
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:03 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5524 Postby Stormlover2012 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:59 am

EURO shows it to
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Texashawk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:50 am
Location: Missouri City, TX (Houston)

#5525 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:00 pm

It's weird, the radar center of Isaac almost looks to be moving just S of due west:

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=LIX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=L20&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
0 likes   
Top
djmikey
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2010 6:04 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5526 Postby djmikey » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:01 pm

Portastorm wrote:Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ... :wink:

Oh we're here...lurking in the shadows! Patiently waiting and watching! .....have a feeling a suprise or two will show up today!
0 likes   
Top
smooth2904
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 6
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2011 5:43 pm
Location: Beaumont, Tx

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5527 Postby smooth2904 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:10 pm

djmikey wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ... :wink:

Oh we're here...lurking in the shadows! Patiently waiting and watching! .....have a feeling a suprise or two will show up today!


Indeed.
0 likes   
Top
nashrobertsx
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 85
Joined: Fri Aug 15, 2008 3:55 pm

#5528 Postby nashrobertsx » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:16 pm

Where is the OBS page? Doesnt seem like a lot of postings on there.
0 likes   
Top
wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

#5529 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:34 pm

Euro should start running soon right?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5530 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:02 pm

EURO 12z 48H

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
pledger28
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Sat Jul 21, 2012 4:04 pm
Location: Buna, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5531 Postby pledger28 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:02 pm

randge wrote:"Surprised to not see more discussion here from the peeps in western Louisiana/eastern Texas about the latest NAM/GFS trends. Hmmm ..."

We're waiting and watching.

Didn't want to be premature, but I wanted to ask any experts online today what they think the wind and/or rain effects will be in the Houston area if the GFS/NAM track today verify for the next few days?

It looks like it's time to start addressing this as a stalled or meandering Isaac looks to be a reasonable possibility.


I am from East Texas and am starting to prepare. There are many gas stations with bags over their gas nozzles this morning. Still plenty of water and supplies to be had though. The wind is actually picking up here quite a bit today and is only 88 today. Very nice but very telling also. My mom lives 30 minutes north of me on the LA/TX line and she says the wind is bad there today.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

#5532 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:06 pm

12z Euro +48.. (Inland)

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 63
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:
Contact Portastorm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5533 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:09 pm

The 12z Euro track through Louisiana appears to be further east than the 0z run.
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5534 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:13 pm

It is further east. EURO 72 H

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Jevo
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1729
Age: 47
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:45 pm
Location: The Flemish Cap
Contact:
Contact Jevo

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5535 Postby Jevo » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:13 pm

12z Euro +72 (Da Droughtbusta)

Image
0 likes   
Disclaimer: 50% of the time I have no clue of what I am talking about. Chances are I am taking a less than educated guess that sounds good because 10 years ago I stole Mike Watkins book 'The Hurricane and its Impact'. For official information please direct yourself to the NHC and their cadre of weather geniuses.
Top
Anthysteg00
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 38
Joined: Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:50 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5536 Postby Anthysteg00 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:14 pm

Isn't a random point that perhaps since nam and gfs agree perhaps the gfs is just wacky because it is following the nam? Euro doesnt agree isnt it a good model? What did no gaps and hwrf say?
0 likes   
Top
DonWrk
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 488
Age: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:54 pm
Location: Collinsville, TX

#5537 Postby DonWrk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:15 pm

Is the HRRR worth anything when it comes to the track?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9484
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5538 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:15 pm

agree on the EURO it is no longer drifting west ....more like drifting nw...
0 likes   
Top
Senobia
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 278
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:59 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5539 Postby Senobia » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:20 pm

Houstonia wrote:Hou/Galv 10:00 am discussion (it's model-heavy with it's terminology, so feel it is okay here):

edited for brevity

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1010 am CDT Tuesday Aug 28 2012

Update...
see morning update.
Discussion...

Isaac still prognosticated by TPC to make landfall over southeast Louisiana. The
12z NAM is trending further west with Isaac and it is looking more
and more like the 00z European model (ecmwf). There could be some significant
changes in the forecast package this afternoon if the 12z GFS supports
the the 12z NAM. The NAM is advertising that the inflow for Isaac
will come through east/southeast Texas on Thursday night and
Friday. This band of higher moisture could cause significantly
higher rain chances than is currently projected. The current TPC
track would keep the heavy rain axis east of southeast Texas. 43


What significant changes? :double: Just the extra rain mentioned? Thoughts?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gboudx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4080
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:39 pm
Location: Rockwall, Tx but from Harvey, La

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5540 Postby gboudx » Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:24 pm

Senobia wrote:
What significant changes? :double: Just the extra rain mentioned? Thoughts?


IMO, inflow means the moisture that will follow Isaac as it moves further inland. Not Isaac itself, but the flow of wind and moisture that will follow and flow towards it's lowest pressure.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests