ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeaBrz_FL]

Just starting to feel the wind/rain bands up here in Cape Canaveral, but the ocean is POUNDING. I am three blocks away, but can hear it with the windows closed. Guarantee a 33% school absentee rate tomorrow due to "surfer sickness"

Prayers and thoughts to everyone that is going to end up in the path of Isaac, and those who have already suffered from him.

[Blinhart]

Looks to me it has shifted quite a bit West. Now the only part of Louisiana not in the cone is Cameron and the areas due west of there.

[tshizzle]

its really been bad the last 2 hours or so here in Sunrise

couple vids i took earlier if anyone cares:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64WjQDAvPj8

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ypm1HCuAQHw

[tshizzle]

where can i find rainfall totals so far?

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

So once this hits the GOM if they west trend continue SE LA and TX reall has 48 hours to get their plans intact Their is talk of it stalling?

[chaser1]

So...if Isaac is not intensifying by much, and he is supposed to be moving farther away from us, why are conditions deteriorating across So Fla now? I'm not in a squall band and the wind has picked up a lot. It is finally tropical storm force.

Each storm has it's own personality and I learn so much from each one (mostly not to assume that the next one will be just like the last one-something for you Katrina veterans to think of; the date probably will be the only thing that is the same) so it keeps me fascinated long past the point when I should be sick of these things by now.

Is that a "bow signiture" coming into Lauderdale by the Seas area?? Cells are moving fast!

[Time_Zone]

Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[stormreader]

Definitely looking better organized now.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wjs3]

Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, it's not a bow echo. "Just" a spiral band, and a nasty one.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Regarding this center relocation talk, don't think it will make much difference at all. We are talking what a 20 mile relocation at best. If this were 7-8 days away and a thousand miles from land then maybe so. But this is 60 hrs or so from landfall and still moving along at a good clip. Just don't think it will translate to much shifting if any. Of course my own opinion, guess we will see in morning.

[HurricaneBrain]

Even if the center were locating, the track would barely budge.

[bonjourno]

where can i find rainfall totals so far?

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

I believe this is probably the best source. Looks underwhelming so far. I think it might only update in 24 hour periods =/

You can also see rainfall totals on each radar station through WeatherUnderground, just pick the radar you want and hit "Total Precipitation"

[tshizzle]

where can i find rainfall totals so far?

http://water.weather.gov/precip/

I believe this is probably the best source. Looks underwhelming so far. I think it might only update in 24 hour periods =/

You can also see rainfall totals on each radar station through WeatherUnderground, just pick the radar you want and hit "Total Precipitation"

wunderground has me at 3.7", wow seemed liek alot more it really hasnt stopped at least drizzling for about 24 hours or so

[cycloneye]

Here is Bryan Norcross discussion that came out on his Facebook page.

Bryan Norcross FACEBOOK
What a horrendous confluence of events. Tropical storms never get on people's radar, and the fact that Isaac passed Key West with less effect than a gusty afternoon thunderstorm made the situation worse. Even with a Cat 1 hurricane, will people take action tomorrow that may save their life Tuesday night?

Isaac's extremely large circulation is one of the factors that should make it intensify relatively slowly, and a track that misses the high heat-content pools in the Gulf should help in that direction as well. Plus it has less than two days over the water before landfall. But, the water ahead is still plenty warm - over 85 degrees - and the atmospheric pattern looks very favorable for strengthening. Taken together, the NHC's Cat. 2 forecast looks reasonable, though preparations should be made for a Cat. 3, given the lack of skill inherent in intensity forecasting.

In any case, that same large circulation will move a lot more water toward the coast than an average hurricane. The entire Hurricane Warning area - from Louisiana to the western Panhandle - is extremely vulnerable to storm surge flooding. The NHC is forecasting 6 to 12 feet of water ABOVE THE GROUND in spots along that stretch of coast.

Normally, the exact amount of surge will be dependent on the exact track and where in the tide cycle the storm comes in. In Isaac's case, however, there will be such a long duration of onshore winds, due to the storm's size and slow forward speed, the water may stay high for more than one tide cycle.

In fact, that size and slow forward speed will make this a hurricane experience like none in memory, if it comes together as forecast. The weather will deteriorate tomorrow (Monday) in the Florida Panhandle, and tomorrow night across the rest of the northern Gulf coast. Then Tuesday the storm approaches the coast and a whole day later it is just inland on the current timetable. Even Thursday there is still onshore wind over part of the coast.

People will experience strong, howling winds and torrential rain for 24 to 36 hours or more in this scenario. They will be trapped at home, many without power.

And then there's New Orleans. The storm as currently forecast should NOT exceed the capabilities of the new super-strong levees, but what if the storm comes in stronger? What a decision to have to make! Should they call an evacuation or not? In addition, there are populated areas outside of the levee-protection system.

Tomorrow (Monday) will be a day for big decisions from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. With life-threatening storm surge expected well away from the landfall point, widespread evacuation orders are likely.

And then there's the inland flood threat from the torrential rain.

Unless something unexpected happens, it's truly a nightmare scenario.

[yzerfan]

Maybe a slug of dry continental air moving into the NW area of the storm ( dew points in the mid 60's near the coast in the panhandle)?? If so see how it responds..

FL Panhandle has been rather dry for this time of year. Seems like it usually takes the first week in October to get dew points into the mid-60s like we've had today.

[MGC]

That ULL over the Yucatan is causing a good bit of shear over Isaac...it is also pumping dry air into Isaac....so, I expect little intensification overnight. As Isaac moves closer to the north gulf coast the cyclone might be in a better upper environment. Track keeps shifting west....how far west the NHC goes will be interesting considering the recent model guidance. My preps are mostly done, have to put the plant in tomorrow.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That's why I wish people would stop proclaiming the onset of rapid intensification with out any evidence to back up their statements. There has been something every day in this storm that has made it buck intensification trends. Every day it will look better for a while and people will get on the "this is it's time" bandwagon, and it peters out, not living up to expectations. too many people want this to be another Katrina for some reason, and I just don't know why.

[chaser1]

Isaac continutes to struggle and not live up to expectations....can't say im surprised. If this storm doesn't get its act together soon it will be remembered as a storm that just plain didn't come anywhere near meeting expectations. I expect him to struggle to reach hurricane status and make landfall as a category 1 hurricane in a couple days.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, it's not a bow echo. "Just" a spiral band, and a nasty one.

Interesting how we're getting the weather that most of us in S. Florida had anticipated earlier in the day. Hard to imagine that Isaac is not deepening. Our local S. Fla. gradient has certainly tightened. Hard for me to ignore what appears to be a COC showing up nicely on the JSL loop (here is a still frame)

[EBrads146]

I think the center is definitely in the process of relocating. The radar seems to be implying this and given the satellite presentation... I can't see it anywhere but the middle of the CDO.

That being said...
Does anyone have Dvorak numbers on this? I'm curious as to what they're implying.

[SootyTern]

where can i find rainfall totals so far?

This is also a good source and I think it is pretty current:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

The storm total rainfall amounts. Curretnly showing a swath of 8 to 10 inches accumulation between WPB and FLL since midnight last night.