ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[jlauderdal]

Once Debby forms, I would like to see how wide the cone of uncertainty is.

The cone of uncertainty is always the same width...the NHC does not modify it for any given storm or forecast. All the cone is is an error probability circle...meaning 2/3 of the time the track at a given time will be in that circle.

IN other words, 2/3 the error circle for the 72 hr forecast track is 144 miles. That means 2/3 of the time the NHC track will hit in that circle in 72 hrs...but it also means 1/3 of the time they are wrong. You connect ALL the valid times and their circles together...and you get the cone.

There is nothing magical or manipulated about the cone. It's pure statistical error and each cone width is the same...regardless of storm or how well behaved.

In addition, there are some private weather services that also have cones, tracks, triangles, rectangles, etc. and as we have seen in the past, those shapes and sizes change on a regular basis.

[tailgater]

That's not what I'm saying, But I don't think the center has relocated, it could easily later but I don't see anything yet.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS has the first well defined center at the 21 hour mark.

[img]http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/7460/zz96gfs.png[/mg]

The euro doesn't have anything well defined until 72 hours, though this may be a resolution issue.

[img]http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/2559/zz96euro.png[/ig]

if you look at this then you can see around 48 hours a lobe is pulled north likely the convection on the east side ne if the yucatan than somewhere between then a 72 its wraps up. but It wont take that long thats why im not buying the euro atm.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[trave2]

So all in all until convection build over a larger area within the large gyro nothing will ever consolidate. SO the gfs pulling some pieces of energy off as the trough approaches is not out of the question since its so broad.

Well said!

[vaffie]

The center is reforming over the deepest convection in the Yucatan channel. The lowest pressures seem to be now just east of the Yucatan peninsula, and dropping quickly. I've seen two ship reports now down to 1005.7 mb in that area. There are also a couple of sustained wind reports finding 29-30 knots in that area. Yesterday the highest we saw was 20 knots. At this rate, it should be a tropical storm by afternoon.

edit by tolakram: added disclaimer

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

They should probably just hold off on recon till tomorrow. unless they just want to incorporate the location of all the vorts spinning around this thing for the models.

[trave2]

GFS has the first well defined center at the 21 hour mark.

[img]http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/7460/zz96gfs.png[/mg]

The euro doesn't have anything well defined until 72 hours, though this may be a resolution issue.

[img]http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/2559/zz96euro.png[/ig]

if you look at this then you can see around 48 hours a lobe is pulled north likely the convection on the east side ne if the yucatan than somewhere between then a 72 its wraps up. but It wont take that long thats why im not buying the euro atm.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Yes...also the gfs seems way more "fluid" than other models when it comes to disorganized messes like this

[tolakram]

vaffie, what is the source of your data?

[vaffie]

vaffie, what is the source of your data?

National Data Buoy Center website's observation search:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

[tolakram]

vaffie, what is the source of your data?

National Data Buoy Center website's observation search:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search. ... t=A&time=3

Excellent, thanks.

[Rgv20]

HPC's overnight discussion.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH WITH LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET FARTHEST WEST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND
FINALLY THE GFS WHICH IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SUPPORTS WEST OR
EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT EVENTUALLY BUT WHEN THAT BEGINS IS
CRUCIAL TO ITS PATH. FOR NOW...WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST POINTS BASED ON THE DAILY COORDINATION CALL
WITH THE NHC WHICH RESULTED IN A LOW REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE GULF THROUGH DAY 7. ELSEWHERE...THE PRELIMINARY
PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE STARTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TOWARD INCREASING PERCENTAGES OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIME.

[Aric Dunn]

HPC's overnight discussion.

MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH WITH LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET FARTHEST WEST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND
FINALLY THE GFS WHICH IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE PLAINS SUPPORTS WEST OR
EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT EVENTUALLY BUT WHEN THAT BEGINS IS
CRUCIAL TO ITS PATH. FOR NOW...WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
YESTERDAY'S FORECAST POINTS BASED ON THE DAILY COORDINATION CALL
WITH THE NHC WHICH RESULTED IN A LOW REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE GULF THROUGH DAY 7. ELSEWHERE...THE PRELIMINARY
PRESSURES/FRONTS WERE STARTED WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TOWARD INCREASING PERCENTAGES OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GROWING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIME.

The center of the gulf through day 7 ... lol

[Sanibel]

Appears to be a spiral center near 23N-86.5W (Close to GFS spot)

[Air Force Met]

The center is reforming over the deepest convection in the Yucatan channel. The lowest pressures seem to be now just east of the Yucatan peninsula, and dropping quickly. I've seen two ship reports now down to 1005.7 mb in that area. There are also a couple of sustained wind reports finding 29-30 knots in that area. Yesterday the highest we saw was 20 knots. At this rate, it should be a tropical storm by afternoon.

[/b]

I think the potential is there for the center to get reformed...but it isn't yet.

First, the convection is going to have to last...and we are coming into a diurnal min.

Second, the real clue will be watch the CU field to the east. The cu lines are still screaming into the convection. This leads me to believe there is NO low pressure there right now. IF there where, the winds would be backing more towards the south. The atmosphere doesn't make right turns. So the primary reason for the convective explosion is convergence of the inflow and the low.

Lastly...in order for the surface low to tuck under the convection, you usually need mid level vorticity to get going. I think that has occurred...but as I said above...the convection has to last.

Give it time. Watch the cu streets to the east ad south. These are your indicators on whether or not there is a low.

[adam0983]

Does anyone know the time frame on when or if invest 96L will hit land?

[tolakram]

Does anyone know the time frame on when or if invest 96L will hit land?

Not really at this time. GFS has a Florida hit in 3 days, Euro hits Texas in 5 or 6 days. At this moment in time there is no really good consensus.

[mattpetre]

Center of the gulf for 7 days could really help zap the heat content for a while. Maybe this thing could just spin itself into oblivion without ever reaching land... just rains for the places that need them... now that is -removed-.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

I'm watching the areas indicated on the image below. I think convection building and any signs of banding will be the first indicator of organization.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tailgater]

I think this RAP model seems plausible. A relocation sort of.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=

[Dave]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-035

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 23/1615Z
D. 25.5N 888.5W
E. 23/1715Z TO 23/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 --
A. 24/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 24/1015Z
D. 27.1N 88.5W
E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
3. REMARK: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 22/1230Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP