ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Ok guys I think people need to realize that the real problem with this storm will be most likely the storm surge, waves, and rain fall. We should all know that a slow moving large size storm will have a larger surge with larger waves and more rain than a fast pace large size storm. So I think we need to be focusing on the speed of this very large storm more than the wind speed. I think that can actually be a problem with the way they categorize these storms.

We need to start focusing on what type of surge and rain we will have. Yes the wind factor will be an issue but not nearly as much as the other factors.

[jhpigott]

I see that feeder band that rolled thru Dade, Broward and south Palm Beach County that everyone from SE FL has been talking about the last couple hours is just about to light up my area in northern Palm Beach. Wind is absolutely howling. Winds have been sustained at WPB in the mid 30s, gusting 45-55 the last 4 or 5 hours. Watching what looks like transformers popping off to my south with the approach of this band.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Ok, we need to change the subject to something more constructive. To many frayed nerves here.

Mark, I understand your demand to get back to something more constructive, but I think this line of conversation has been building most of the day, and in the wee hours of the night might be the best time to have it. We know that mainly the serious members are the ones here now watching the model runs and all.

[fasterdisaster]

The trend all day and into the night has been slow and steady organization. Isaac looks great compared to 24 hours ago, when his LLC was almost completely devoid of convection. The winds may not be any different but the establishment of an inner core precedes any significant strengthening, and IMO Isaac is well on his way to forming one.

You stated that Issac is well on his way to forming an inner core. I am a novice and trying to learn all I can. On the model forum it is being said that the eye is relocating north as we speak. I thought it would have to have a core before it had an eye. And if it just now on its way to developing a core then how could a non existant eye be relocating to the north? Also, I believe I read somewhere that a tropical storm rarely has an eye. That would be a trait of a hurricane. Any feedback would be appreciated.

I believe people looking for a relocation are speculating that the center will move towards the MLC (mid-level center), which is much closer to the center of thunderstorm activity than the LLC (low-level center). Recon hasn't confirmed that yet, but we can check on it later when they send out the next data message (sometime before 2 AM EDT probably). Isaac does not have an eyewall right now. He may be in the process of slowly forming one, but as of now it's not distinct enough to be recorded by reconnaissance aircraft. Tropical storms usually do not have eyes, however it is not completely unheard of for the stronger ones to display eye-like features.

[imetrice]

Even if Isaac makes landfall as a cat 3 it can be very dangerous and produce a high storm surge, remember that Ike was "only" a cat 2 when it made landfall, of course it was larger than Isaac but it's an example of why the power of a "Minor " hurricane shouldn't be underestimated.

I agree, and I'm sure folks in Tx will never forget Allison which was a tropical storm. Regardless of the intensity, people should hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

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[KimmieLa]

Can someone please tell me how far inland after Isaac hits will it go?
For example, do Baton Rouge people need to evacuate?
Lafayette?

I'm around NOLA, but thinking about other loved ones in those areas, or someone in b.r. who offered for us to go there. Is it far enough North?

Local mets are saying that Baton Rouge may possibly see hurricane force winds. So depending on location of landfall, it may not be the place to go. Seems like Alexandria or Shreveport might be better. I live in BTR, but, do not plan to leave.

Not a met, please seek professional help.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

[ img]http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES03452012240KMcvCA.jpg[/img]

Quick question while looking at this image. Are the mass of storms pounding Florida now related to the vort max that appeared yesterday off of SW Florida as the storm was coming off of Haiti, or is this directly related to Isaac?

[SapphireSea]

The trend all day and into the night has been slow and steady organization. Isaac looks great compared to 24 hours ago, when his LLC was almost completely devoid of convection. The winds may not be any different but the establishment of an inner core precedes any significant strengthening, and IMO Isaac is well on his way to forming one.

You stated that Issac is well on his way to forming an inner core. I am a novice and trying to learn all I can. On the model forum it is being said that the eye is relocating north as we speak. I thought it would have to have a core before it had an eye. And if it just now on its way to developing a core then how could a non existant eye be relocating to the north? Also, I believe I read somewhere that a tropical storm rarely has an eye. That would be a trait of a hurricane. Any feedback would be appreciated.

I believe people looking for a relocation are speculating that the center will move towards the MLC (mid-level center), which is much closer to the center of thunderstorm activity than the LLC (low-level center). Recon hasn't confirmed that yet, but we can check on it later when they send out the next data message (sometime before 2 AM EDT probably). Isaac does not have an eyewall right now. He may be in the process of slowly forming one, but as of now it's not distinct enough to be recorded by reconnaissance aircraft. Tropical storms usually do not have eyes, however it is not completely unheard of for the stronger ones to display eye-like features.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The stacking of the centers can and probably will happen eventually, barring any strong shear. It does take some time for this to happen so I would probably continue to extrapolate the current strengthening trend out to 3-4 hours. After that, anything can happen and would be almost pure hypothetical speculation.

[pledger28]

The trend all day and into the night has been slow and steady organization. Isaac looks great compared to 24 hours ago, when his LLC was almost completely devoid of convection. The winds may not be any different but the establishment of an inner core precedes any significant strengthening, and IMO Isaac is well on his way to forming one.

You stated that Issac is well on his way to forming an inner core. I am a novice and trying to learn all I can. On the model forum it is being said that the eye is relocating north as we speak. I thought it would have to have a core before it had an eye. And if it just now on its way to developing a core then how could a non existant eye be relocating to the north? Also, I believe I read somewhere that a tropical storm rarely has an eye. That would be a trait of a hurricane. Any feedback would be appreciated.

I believe people looking for a relocation are speculating that the center will move towards the MLC (mid-level center), which is much closer to the center of thunderstorm activity than the LLC (low-level center). Recon hasn't confirmed that yet, but we can check on it later when they send out the next data message (sometime before 2 AM EDT probably). Isaac does not have an eyewall right now. He may be in the process of slowly forming one, but as of now it's not distinct enough to be recorded by reconnaissance aircraft. Tropical storms usually do not have eyes, however it is not completely unheard of for the stronger ones to display eye-like features.

He is actually saying that he sees it relocating. I have looked until I am cross eyed and just dont see it. But, I am glad that I asked the question.

[tropicwatch]

Is this an optical illusion or what? Both satellite imagery and radar give a presentation that indicates the center of circulation is further north. What am I missing?



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[ncweatherwizard]

Can someone please tell me how far inland after Isaac hits will it go?
For example, do Baton Rouge people need to evacuate?
Lafayette?

I'm around NOLA, but thinking about other loved ones in those areas, or someone in b.r. who offered for us to go there. Is it far enough North?

It's far enough north to get away from the serious wind and storm surge. I would make sure that I was in a place that is not very prone to fresh water flooding. This looks to be a very slow moving storm that dumps a whole lot of rain. That might be good for Arkansas and Missouri, but not so good for areas that are not in a huge drought right now.

I'll guess right now that while the impact to the coast will be hyped up greatly--perhaps fairly and perhaps not--but the potential inland flooding impact for this one will not be prepared for well enough.

[tolakram]

Ok, we need to change the subject to something more constructive. To many frayed nerves here.

Mark, I understand your demand to get back to something more constructive, but I think this line of conversation has been building most of the day, and in the wee hours of the night might be the best time to have it. We know that mainly the serious members are the ones here now watching the model runs and all.

The hype or no hype or RI or no RI is not really meaningful at this point. We do NOT know. I don't mind a respectful discussion, but what else is left to say?

[deltadog03]

Actually Isaac looks rather unhealthy in the Low Levels. LLC looks like its becoming de-coupled from the MLC.....

[SapphireSea]

Is this an optical illusion or what? Both satellite imagery and radar give a presentation that indicates the center of circulation is further north. What am I missing?

The MLC and LLC are not currently stacked and are traveling in slightly different speeds/directions causing the optical illusion. I believe we will see on satilite mostly an MLC just off the logic that were looking top down. The radar will show strong spin on a healthy MLC by having a pronounced spin of the dark green+ db reflectivity while the lower clouds which can represent the LLC may hide a bit better, esp off long rage. I think.

[tolakram]

Latest IR, negative

[Aric Dunn]

mand convection is far from the center that recon keeps finding. that mlc looks better. it should reform under it at some point if this keeps up... but who knows.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Ok, we need to change the subject to something more constructive. To many frayed nerves here.

Mark, I understand your demand to get back to something more constructive, but I think this line of conversation has been building most of the day, and in the wee hours of the night might be the best time to have it. We know that mainly the serious members are the ones here now watching the model runs and all.

The hype or no hype or RI or no RI is not really meaningful at this point. We do NOT know. I don't mind a respectful discussion, but what else is left to say?

I guess you are correct there. I think at times I feel a little frustrated that more is not done during the active times of the day to curtail the (as someone just put it) "media hype" of RI.

[SapphireSea]

Actually Isaac looks rather unhealthy in the Low Levels. LLC looks like its becoming de-coupled from the MLC.....

I agree.. I think it's going to go back to what I think happened while it was in the early phase of crossing cuba. I clearly saw on visible and through recon reports that it spit out the LLC and the MLC had to basically begin from scratch to get where we got to. I think we will have to see this MLC work its way to the surface if the LLC is not restacked.

[fasterdisaster]

Some banding seems like it's sprouting on the south side on IR...or am I seeing things?

[artist]

all I know is it has gotten so much worse. No power now, on generator, storming, winds, etc. Had rain all day with a few flickers here and there but this is much worse. We are surrounded by a moat from all the rain. Prepare guys if it is coming your way!