ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bayoubebe]

Can someone please tell me how far inland after Isaac hits will it go?
For example, do Baton Rouge people need to evacuate?
Lafayette?

I'm around NOLA, but thinking about other loved ones in those areas, or someone in b.r. who offered for us to go there. Is it far enough North?

It's far enough north to get away from the serious wind and storm surge. I would make sure that I was in a place that is not very prone to fresh water flooding. This looks to be a very slow moving storm that dumps a whole lot of rain. That might be good for Arkansas and Missouri, but not so good for areas that are not in a huge drought right now.

I'll guess right now that while the impact to the coast will be hyped up greatly--perhaps fairly and perhaps not--but the potential inland flooding impact for this one will not be prepared for well enough.

Thank you. This is very helpful!

I also appreciate the replies from JSDS and Kimmie who reside in B.R. Your input is useful.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

all I know is it has gotten so much worse. No power now, on generator, storming, winds, etc. Had rain all day with a few flickers here and there but this is much worse. We are surrounded by a moat from all the rain. Prepare guys if it is coming your way!

This has most assuredly been a rain event storm. I predict flooding to be pretty severe. especially considering the saturation of the ground before the storm arrived.

[imetrice]

Can someone please tell me how far inland after Isaac hits will it go?
For example, do Baton Rouge people need to evacuate?
Lafayette?

I'm around NOLA, but thinking about other loved ones in those areas, or someone in b.r. who offered for us to go there. Is it far enough North?

Local mets are saying that Baton Rouge may possibly see hurricane force winds. So depending on location of landfall, it may not be the place to go. Seems like Alexandria or Shreveport might be better. I live in BTR, but, do not plan to leave.

Not a met, please seek professional help.

Also, depends on the track. I was in Alexandria when Gustav passed right overhead. Left significant flooding and poweroutages. I think its best to listen to your local authorities, mets, the NHC, and be prepared to do what they suggest.

[SapphireSea]

all I know is it has gotten so much worse. No power now, on generator, storming, winds, etc. Had rain all day with a few flickers here and there but this is much worse. We are surrounded by a moat from all the rain. Prepare guys if it is coming your way!

You got all the interesting stuff N of Dade. Just goes to show everyone here that effects of less organized systems can actually, more often than not, affect areas farther away from the center MORE than those who are near it.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

retty big nothingburger in tamppa. satelotte presentation looks great. im betting nhc makes it a hurricaane in the next hour

[climaguy]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Seems to me like the last burst of strong convection a few hours ago occurred simultaneously with Isaac shedding a lot of the far-flung bands that he was expending a lot of energy trying to consolidate. Isaac looks a lot smaller now and a lot more focused. Any opinions on whether or not having a much more compact central convective mass will translate into a solid foundation for steady strengthening?

[Air Force Met]

Actually Isaac looks rather unhealthy in the Low Levels. LLC looks like its becoming de-coupled from the MLC.....

I agree. Something is going on. Recon doesn't match radar. The recon fix was about 60 miles SE of the mid level vortex. The vortex is at a distance from radar where it is at about 10K...so recon is flying well below the radar sig.

Perhaps the LLC will catch up...or the other possibility is the MLC races away and leaves a naked swirl...and we start over.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually Isaac looks rather unhealthy in the Low Levels. LLC looks like its becoming de-coupled from the MLC.....

I agree. Something is going on. Recon doesn't match radar. The recon fix was about 60 miles SE of the mid level vortex. The vortex is at a distance from radar where it is at about 10K...so recon is flying well below the radar sig.

Perhaps the LLC will catch up...or the other possibility is the MLC races away and leaves a naked swirl...and we start over.

I concur. it is also possible to that it does fully detach and the llc weakens and redevelops under the mlc once the shear stops.

[KimmieLa]

Can someone please tell me how far inland after Isaac hits will it go?
For example, do Baton Rouge people need to evacuate?
Lafayette?

I'm around NOLA, but thinking about other loved ones in those areas, or someone in b.r. who offered for us to go there. Is it far enough North?

Local mets are saying that Baton Rouge may possibly see hurricane force winds. So depending on location of landfall, it may not be the place to go. Seems like Alexandria or Shreveport might be better. I live in BTR, but, do not plan to leave.

Not a met, please seek professional help.

Also, depends on the track. I was in Alexandria when Gustav passed right overhead. Left significant flooding and poweroutages. I think its best to listen to your local authorities, mets, the NHC, and be prepared to do what they suggest.

So true. Gustav was no fun. Could hear trees coming down and transformers blowing. BTR lost so many trees. If I lived in New Orleans area, I would make my decision tomorrow morning based on the forecast track to decide where to go if evacuation becomes necessary. During Gustav and Katrina, the roads and interstates in BTR became parking lots from folks leaving south La. I wish you and your family the best.

[tropicwatch]

Actually Isaac looks rather unhealthy in the Low Levels. LLC looks like its becoming de-coupled from the MLC.....

I agree. Something is going on. Recon doesn't match radar. The recon fix was about 60 miles SE of the mid level vortex. The vortex is at a distance from radar where it is at about 10K...so recon is flying well below the radar sig.

Perhaps the LLC will catch up...or the other possibility is the MLC races away and leaves a naked swirl...and we start over.

And I guess that would mean all bets are off as far as the next landfall

[kat61]

Ok, we need to change the subject to something more constructive. To many frayed nerves here.

Mark, I understand your demand to get back to something more constructive, but I think this line of conversation has been building most of the day, and in the wee hours of the night might be the best time to have it. We know that mainly the serious members are the ones here now watching the model runs and all.

Are you a Pro Met?

[Aric Dunn]

Also shouldn't buoy 42023 have a ese or Se wind not ne? leads me to believe that there may be another circ developing somewhere near the mlc.

[cheezyWXguy]

It really seems its only a matter of time before Isaac becomes fully stacked. The appearance on satellite actually appears consistent with or even greater than its intensity, for probably the first time in its life. A genuine CDO is establishing itself and apparently pretty healthy considering how deep convection is and how perfectly round it is. The low level structure will take another few hours, but if the reorganization process is successful, tomorrow will be a big day. Remember, it was not forecast today to undergo anymore than slow strengthening, Isaac is only 5 or 10kt behind what was forecast of him last night to be at this point. His major inflow channel to the SE is still over Cuba and that has been the main impeding factor. There's nothing we can do now but calmly prepare and wait and see what happens.

[SapphireSea]

Also shouldn't buoy 42023 have a ese or Se wind not ne? leads me to believe that there may be another circ developing somewhere near the mlc.

I'm not sure either, but looking at the buoy location and recon LLC it's probobly about right? The LLC is on the SE side of the MLC blob so that might put the LLC's barely on the SE side of this bouy.

[BlueIce]

The newest RBTOP product seems to show what everyone has been hinting at for the last couple of hours.

[Meteorcane]

Is that convective feature S-SW of Isaac and outflow boundary or a rainband?

[fasterdisaster]

This storm is so bizarre. An eye seems to forming on that RBTOP, WAY to the north of the LLC.

[BlueIce]

Is that convective feature S-SW of Isaac and outflow boundary or a curved band?

The Weather channel just stipulated that it's either something similar to a gust front (think collapsing thunderstorm on radar) or high cirrus.

[crimi481]

Yes - the N.E Bands have been shredding off to the N.NE all day/night
Decoupling - big wedge of dry air across state= from Sarasota south to Ft Meyes
Something pullig on hose ands -from N.E

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[bayoubebe]

The newest RBTOP product seems to show what everyone has been hinting at for the last couple of hours.
[[/img]

Meaning what exactly??
I'm not too proud to admit, I have no idea what you are referring to.
Please spell it out to us nonprofessionals/nonweather educated members.