ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Hmmm that mid level shear still seems to be causing a few issues but to be fair the models really get more agressive in the next 6-12hrs and the conditions aloft do look good so a period of quicker strengthening seems likely later today and into tonight IMO.

[Sanibel]

And the structure on radar finally looks like that might happen.


This is past us now and was mostly a non-event with a few gusts.

[KWT]

Also looking at the recon reports the center is better arranged with the deep convection than yesterday. Still not perfect and once the mid level shear does ease up a touch more (its not that strong really) things will start to look different.

[Shuriken]

NHC now forecasting a direct hit on New Orleans, but dropped intensity to 90mph at landfall.

[KWT]

Yep weaker from the NHC, these sorts of systems always worry me though, it'll onl take the mid level shear to drop a little more and this system will take off like quite a few of the models are forecasting. Still more than enough time for a major...

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

Definatly cannot discount a Category 2/3 at this stage, while its now getting more unlikely, we cannot discount it.

[KWT]

I think your right, a 2/3 is very possible and quite a few models are stil going tha strong as well, my main fear is the conditions aloft within the last 24hrs actually look rather good, if it pans out then there is no reason to dubt that this one will strengthen rather quickly...it really depends on whether it can ever get that inner core really cranking.

[Dean4Storms]

That Recon position still puts Isaac east of the 11pm forecast track.

[KWT]

I suspect once shear eases up a little more the LLC will jump a little to the west, but even so it'll probably be a little to the east of the forecast track in the short term.

We'll see how this goes in the next 6hrs or so and whether it gets even more aligned with the deep convection.

[jlauderdal]

very active last 12 hours in SE FL and it continues..storm effects really changed for us around 4 pm yesterday, i lost power for a few mins around midnight..still very breezy and as you can see bands are still setting up..palm beach school announced yesterday they would open but changed that as last nights activity was cranking...over 5 inches of rain at my place, street is flooded at my house

[rtd2]

Gotta Love Bob Breck ,,,,,possible cat3-4

[KWT]

I don't think a 3/4 is out of the question to be honest, it all depends on this next 12hrs, if it can develop a core in that time, it'll have 24-36hrs in possibly very favourable conditions if the models are close to what they show and as we've seen that is ample time for a system to strengthen a fair amount, even if it doesn't bomb.

[Kory]

So, has the low level center aligned with the mid level center? I see the shear has let up some, but the dry air seems firmly in place south of the system.

[rtd2]

I don't think a 3/4 is out of the question to be honest, it all depends on this next 12hrs, if it can develop a core in that time, it'll have 24-36hrs in possibly very favourable conditions if the models are close to what they show and as we've seen that is ample time for a system to strengthen a fair amount, even if it doesn't bomb.

I dont disagree with you or him to be honest anything is possible ..but its just his approach he's almost rouge in his forecast yet he still gives props to NHC as he should its almost Good Met/ Bad Met. he loves the Viper forecast system which I dont know much about ... On the flip side our local mets in Biloxi almost Killed the storm off in their 4am live update

[KWT]

Its pretty close now, I still think its not perfectly aligned but I suspect that will come today at some point.

[Dean4Storms]

@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 radar is painting southwest FL near Naples and Ft. Meyers as we track to a point 105 nm east of #Isaac center. Hint of eye forming.

[Dean4Storms]

I don't think a 3/4 is out of the question to be honest, it all depends on this next 12hrs, if it can develop a core in that time, it'll have 24-36hrs in possibly very favourable conditions if the models are close to what they show and as we've seen that is ample time for a system to strengthen a fair amount, even if it doesn't bomb.

I could see a very low end chance at a 3, but I don't see it having quite the time or organization to make a Cat.4

[KWT]

Hmmm now that is interesting, it'dsuggest slowly but surely the inner core is starting to develop. We'll see how this goes in the next few hours and whether the hints become stronger.

[BobHarlem]

Isaac's been on the verge of "it's just about to explode!" for the last 5 days, what's different today that would actually cause that to happen?

[Nimbus]

Still a tropical storm with surface pressure near 990 MB could be a lot worse. The track through or near NOLA looks like it will verify. The NHC has this coming in as a cat 1 late Tuesday since there is not much time before landfall. Central Pressure has only dropped about 8 MB's in the last 24 hours so that sounds like a reasonable linear projection. Even a 975 MB hurricane would likely still be cat 1.