ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

That little eye within the big eye probably means things are going to sort out soon and intensify.


Gusty here.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Not much time, busy today. My observation of Isaac this morning is that it's no stronger than yesterday. Recon and buoy reports indicate about 45-50 kts max. Though the TS winds extend out about 180-200 miles to the NE (a little above average), it will not be a HUGE storm at landfall. And if Isaac does strengthen today then those TS winds should draw in CLOSER to the center - they won't expand. Hurricane force winds (if it ever gets there) should cover a very small area NE of the center. I don't know where the media are getting this "huge hurricane" idea, it's just not the case.

Watch the estimates of center using satellite and radar, as it appears the core is tilted from south to north. Low level center is on the south side of the convection, south of where the radar indicates as it's looking WAY up above the surface.

SLOSH indicates a surge into SE LA of 5-7 ft as a cat 1, but Isaac will be a bit below-average in terms of any hurricane force wind area. This is NO Katrina.

Gotta run.

[Blinhart]

That little eye within the big eye probably means things are going to sort out soon and intensify.


Gusty here.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was hoping I was wrong in seeing that also, I never like seeing a double eye wall, that just means that he has to be steadily intensifying.

[rainstorm]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

That eye pops and NHC may see things the way I do about intensity. If not, then maybe I gotta come to them.

sounds like he is waivering a bit.

[Janie2006]

Another concern will be flooding along the northern Gulf Coast. QPF charts are suggesting that some areas east of the center could get 18 inches of rain, and it's already been a rainy summer in that area.

[tolakram]

Latest

[jinftl]

Flooding in Palm Beach county where 10-12" of rain has fallen from West Palm to Boca. Training rainbands are setting up again to move over the same area now.

Wind gusts over 40 mph from Miami to West Palm still...up to 55 mph in squalls

[tolakram]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

That eye pops and NHC may see things the way I do about intensity. If not, then maybe I gotta come to them.

sounds like he is waivering a bit.

You are welcome to post JB tweets about Isaac, but not if he brings politics into it. I removed the first tweet.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is the upper Texas coast in the clear as of now?

[jlauderdal]

Flooding in Palm Beach county where 10-12" of rain has fallen from West Palm to Boca. Training rainbands are setting up again to move over the same area now.

Wind gusts over 40 mph from Miami to West Palm still...up to 55 mph in squalls

we just had one move through now sun is out which could to lead to more action later today if we can get some sustained heating...standing water all around fort lauderdale..nothing we haven't seen before but more than expected based on what was happening yesterday around 1 pm.

[rainstorm]

Not much time, busy today. My observation of Isaac this morning is that it's no stronger than yesterday. Recon and buoy reports indicate about 45-50 kts max. Though the TS winds extend out about 180-200 miles to the NE (a little above average), it will not be a HUGE storm at landfall. And if Isaac does strengthen today then those TS winds should draw in CLOSER to the center - they won't expand. Hurricane force winds (if it ever gets there) should cover a very small area NE of the center. I don't know where the media are getting this "huge hurricane" idea, it's just not the case.

Watch the estimates of center using satellite and radar, as it appears the core is tilted from south to north. Low level center is on the south side of the convection, south of where the radar indicates as it's looking WAY up above the surface.

SLOSH indicates a surge into SE LA of 5-7 ft as a cat 1, but Isaac will be a bit below-average in terms of any hurricane force wind area. This is NO Katrina.

Gotta run.

i agree. i think "if" is the key word. its amazing how things can change so fast.

[rainstorm]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

That eye pops and NHC may see things the way I do about intensity. If not, then maybe I gotta come to them.

sounds like he is waivering a bit.

You are welcome to post JB tweets about Isaac, but not if he brings politics into it. I removed the first tweet.

no problem.

[tolakram]

Loop of 30 frames ending at 12:55Z, 8:55AM EDT

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

Is it improving, or sucking in dry air?

[Agua]

Is the upper Texas coast in the clear as of now?

No, its still within the cone of error.

[Sanibel]

Can't find the poll, but I say category 3 when it goes in. It hasn't found its teeth yet but it will...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rainstorm]

Loop of 30 frames ending at 12:55Z, 8:55AM EDT

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

Is it improving, or sucking in dry air?

i posted about that earlier. its a separate ball of convection with no obvious outflow channels. i think its gulping dry air. ive hever understood where all the dry air comes from in the tropics.

[Time_Zone]

Can't find the poll, but I say category 3 when it goes in. It hasn't found its teeth yet but it will...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yikes that would be bad. It's good to see Isaac struggling so bad right now though, I figured he would continue to struggle until he was running out of water. 85 MPH Category 1 is my prediction at landfall maybe 90.

[caneman]

Loop of 30 frames ending at 12:55Z, 8:55AM EDT

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

Is it improving, or sucking in dry air?

i posted about that earlier. its a separate ball of convection with no obvious outflow channels. i think its gulping dry air. ive hever understood where all the dry air comes from in the tropics.

Looks like dry air to me. When you look at WV it tells the tale to me. IMHO.

[otowntiger]

Not much time, busy today. My observation of Isaac this morning is that it's no stronger than yesterday. Recon and buoy reports indicate about 45-50 kts max. Though the TS winds extend out about 180-200 miles to the NE (a little above average), it will not be a HUGE storm at landfall. And if Isaac does strengthen today then those TS winds should draw in CLOSER to the center - they won't expand. Hurricane force winds (if it ever gets there) should cover a very small area NE of the center. I don't know where the media are getting this "huge hurricane" idea, it's just not the case.

Watch the estimates of center using satellite and radar, as it appears the core is tilted from south to north. Low level center is on the south side of the convection, south of where the radar indicates as it's looking WAY up above the surface.

SLOSH indicates a surge into SE LA of 5-7 ft as a cat 1, but Isaac will be a bit below-average in terms of any hurricane force wind area. This is NO Katrina.

Gotta run.

And THANK GOODNESS for that!!!! Let's just hope that little old Isaac continues to underachieve and never does what they think he will or can do regarding intensity. Maybe he'll be a blessing in disguise if he can manage to get up to the drought stricken areas and make a dent in the rain deficits.

And thanks to you wxman57 for always being our voice of reason here and for all of your valuable input!

[cigtyme]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Well here in Houma, got to work early at 6am expecting to storm prep, only to find welders still welding, and fitters still fitting. I really hope my Company is not screwing up. We are in southern Terrebonne parish. Glad i prepped on Sunday.

We have a Voluntary Evacuation for everyone south of the Intracoastal Waterway.

On a side note, you can feel that feeling in the air. Maybe it is just human nature, but it feels like something is churning the gulf.