ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Houstonia]

From Twitter:

HRD_AOML_NOAA #NOAA42 Doppler radar analyses from first two legs in #Isaac shows a shallow circulation tilted toward northeast from 1 to 7 km altitude.

[Sanibel]

Winds have picked-up here. Some real TS gusts blasting us now. Sun came out then it poured big drop rain.

[Dean4Storms]

Recon continues to show the center east of the forecast Track.

[tolakram]

L. OPEN 09-24, RAGGED
M. C32

First time we've had report of an eyewall since before Haiti.

[JtSmarts]

L. OPEN 09-24, RAGGED
M. C32

First time we've had report of an eyewall since before Haiti.

He definitely organizing, just rather slowly as before.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Copy from recon thread
______________________________________________
A lot else was noted as suspect, as has been the case with many messages, but this was not:
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
Rain rate at time: 25 mm/hr (~ 0.98 in/hr)

[Dean4Storms]

Winds coming up at this buoy.......

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

[BigB0882]

So will this be upped to 70 mph at the next update, or possibly 75? Do they usually round up or down?

[Dean4Storms]

L. OPEN 09-24, RAGGED
M. C32

First time we've had report of an eyewall since before Haiti.

He definitely organizing, just rather slowly as before.

No, we had one earlier this morning around 5am.

[GCANE]

CAPE now 3000 in Isaac's core.

Going up rapidly

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[MJS1]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Feel free to correct me if I am wrong in anything here, preferably without any insults or mockeries.

The Mods will not allow anyone to insult or mock you, hurricane1234...There are different levels of weather knowledge in general in this forum, but as you know,most of us have no or very little formal education in the matter..In behalf of those that should know better, I apologize for any perceived offense they may have caused you..

Now back to Isaac...

[Texashawk]

On a side note, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Euro/CMC solution will now verify - Isaac would need to be moving pretty much due NW or about 320 by now, and this clearly is not happening.

[tolakram]

Big 30 frame WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30

ULL south of Isaac seems to have dissipated, as forecast (IIRC).

[vbhoutex]

From Twitter:

HRD_AOML_NOAA #NOAA42 Doppler radar analyses from first two legs in #Isaac shows a shallow circulation tilted toward northeast from 1 to 7 km altitude.

Don't slam me since I am just getting started for today and haven't seen anything except for a few models. This is interesting. Sounds like the SW shear being induced by the ULL to the SW of Issac is still ongoing. Issac will still have trouble intensifying until the core stacks and the shear relents. Though I still wish he would just poof, this is good in one aspect that hopefully Issac will be a weaker version of what could have been. Even with the high heat potential on his front door the tilt has got to go away for any significant intensification to happen which will make it "easier" on the landfall area. Do not get me wrong, I know full well what even a Hurricane which is "just a CAT1" can do. Just thinking aloud.

Edit after Marks post. Thanks for bursting my thoughts! LOL!! Definitely don't see the ULL so that brings in the question of how soon will Issac respond to the lack of SW shear? Still looks to me like the trough is not going to be a factor in the steering since it appears to be moving more East than SE and is still way up in the Northern US.

[mvtrucking]

CAPE now 3000 in Isaac's core.

Going up rapidly

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

Curious what CAPE 3000 relates to GCane? Thanks in advance

[Jagno]

On a side note, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Euro/CMC solution will now verify - Isaac would need to be moving pretty much due NW or about 320 by now, and this clearly is not happening.

After days and days of Isaac watching to the tune of 200+ pages please post those solutions.

[RL3AO]

CAPE now 3000 in Isaac's core.

Going up rapidly

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

Curious what CAPE 3000 relates to GCane? Thanks in advance

CAPE (convective available potential energy) is a measurement of how unstable the atmosphere is. 3000 is a very high number.

[Javlin]

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°50'N 84°52'W (25.8333N 84.8667W)

LOCATION...25.2N 84.2W 5AM


Thats 6/6=NW does it continue though?

[Sanibel]

The convection makes it look like there's dual level shear from the SW and ESE.


What should happen is Isaac will hit the threshold of blowing the effect of that shear off and boom - is my opinion.


With the wind blasting as it is here I'm shocked we haven't lost power because we usually do by now at this intensity.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Texashawk]

Righto.

Blue = EURO (and the CMC is just about the same)



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