ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Portastorm]

MS. coastline landfall is still very possible IMO.

I agree. Based upon the latest positions reports from the NHC the system is moving approximately 315 degrees , 12 kts .... MS is definitely in the possible .....

Dunno about that ... we went from 25.50/84.52 at 13:03z to 25.57/85.06 at 13:48z. That's almost due west.

[wxwatcher1999]

MS. coastline landfall is still very possible IMO.

I agree. Based upon the latest positions reports from the NHC the system is moving approximately 315 degrees , 12 kts .... MS is definitely in the possible .....

Dunno about that ... we went from 25.50/84.52 at 13:03z to 25.57/85.06 at 13:48z. That's almost due west.

Thank you for clarifying that I was about to pull my hair out

[Janie2006]

I'll take rain bands containing a weak tornado or two and 50-60 mph gusts over a landfalling Cat 2 any day of the week!

[DukeDevil91]

MS. coastline landfall is still very possible IMO.

I agree. Based upon the latest positions reports from the NHC the system is moving approximately 315 degrees , 12 kts .... MS is definitely in the possible .....

Dunno about that ... we went from 25.50/84.52 at 13:03z to 25.57/85.06 at 13:48z. That's almost due west.

It all depends on strength. The weaker it is, the farther west it makes landfall. Stronger storms have a greater upper level element to them therefore are steered more by high pressures and ULLs. Based on current satellites and surface low positions, it'll take a more westward track. Now this could all change.

[Javlin]

MS. coastline landfall is still very possible IMO.

I agree. Based upon the latest positions reports from the NHC the system is moving approximately 315 degrees , 12 kts .... MS is definitely in the possible .....

Dunno about that ... we went from 25.50/84.52 at 13:03z to 25.57/85.06 at 13:48z. That's almost due west.

Just saw that myself WTH? 45 minutes two different planes?one was a bad fix?

[Texashawk]

I think what's happening is that the center has continued to consolidate NW within the CDO, which the entire system itself moving roughly west to just north of west, but it's almost done and I believe we will see a more consistent movement of the center with the rest of the system.

[cpdaman]

isaac loves snacking on mid level dry air. morning noon and nite, keeps him lean but not so mean. perhaps he can rid himself of this tuesday

[Sanibel]

Crack of blue sky with sun shining down opening-up above the house. This means the layer above the surface deck is dry.

[mutley]

It seems/looks like it hasn't gained very much latitude since I've been watching this morning.

[DukeDevil91]

Mid and upper level covnection still way west of the surface low IMO

[deltadog03]

the LLC does look like its moving around 300....it is certainly right of the old track a bit.

[wxman57]

Winds coming up at this buoy.......

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Still only 35 kts and 993mb pressure just west of the center.

[cpdaman]

wxman57 is the gulf "stable" still. i'm remembering comments you made about ML temps and conditions being similiar to late may/june. could you comment on that Please or am i mistaken ,bc i have posted about it with no response last nite, and didn't know if i was making things up

[jinftl]

Some model runs this morning not disagreeing with a 'more west' view - been a trend with this storm with the last few days with the eventual landfall forecast track going from the panhanle on friday's forecast to mobile on saturday's to new orleans yesterday. Will the track keep going west on I-10 more?

I agree. Based upon the latest positions reports from the NHC the system is moving approximately 315 degrees , 12 kts .... MS is definitely in the possible .....

Dunno about that ... we went from 25.50/84.52 at 13:03z to 25.57/85.06 at 13:48z. That's almost due west.

It all depends on strength. The weaker it is, the farther west it makes landfall. Stronger storms have a greater upper level element to them therefore are steered more by high pressures and ULLs. Based on current satellites and surface low positions, it'll take a more westward track. Now this could all change.[/quote]

[wxman57]

wxman57 is the gulf "stable" still. i'm remembering comments you made about ML temps and conditions being similiar to late may/june. could you comment on that Please or am i mistaken ,bc i have posted about it with no response last nite, and didn't know if i was making things up

Latest report says instability remains way below climo, but I'm not sure when it is/was updated. Clearly, the Gulf is not as favorable as some of the hurricane models were thinking when they forecast 110-120 kts for max intensity.

[GCANE]

CAPE now 3500 in the core

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

[BigB0882]

The cape is rising fast. Let's see if it translates to strengthening.

[wxwatcher1999]

So what's the movement right now...I am getting conflicting stories

[cpdaman]

wxman thanks u , is that graph ok to be copied and pasted elsewhere or does that require special permission

[ConvergenceZone]

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My prediction is that it will finally reach hurricane strength in 12-18 hours. I am guessing it will be an 80-85 mph Hurricane at landfall.

Probably not a bad estimate. Even though I"m having 2nd thoughts of it landfalling as a hurricane, if I was to guess, I would say anywhere between 75 mph and 90 mph at landfall, but remember it's a large circulation, thus any inensification should be slow according to the NHC, so basically they are saying no RI with Isaac....

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Disclaimer:
This is only my opinion, don't take it as absolute factual.