ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Chris_in_Tampa]

@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 just passed through center of #Isaac for 5th and last time. Track of center is trochoidal as circulation reacts to convection.

[BigEasy]

CAPE now 3500 in the core

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

If I am not mistaken, that is up substantially from earlier this morning. Correct?

[hcane27]

the LLC does look like its moving around 300....it is certainly right of the old track a bit.

Thanx for the clarification .... I know that the change was west AND north ... that would NOT be due west ... and it is right of the forecast track by approximately 15 miles.

[GCANE]

The cape is rising fast. Let's see if it translates to strengthening.

I am watching if there is some threshold that would set off a hot-tower.

[tolakram]

Recon data showing general movement, wobbles aside.

[GCANE]

CAPE now 3500 in the core

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

If I am not mistaken, that is up substantially from earlier this morning. Correct?

It was 2000 around 5AM EDT

[Texashawk]

@HRD_AOML_NOAA
#NOAA42 just passed through center of #Isaac for 5th and last time. Track of center is trochoidal as circulation reacts to convection.

Good to know I'm not crazy and/or seeing things.

[BigEasy]

CAPE now 3500 in the core

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

If I am not mistaken, that is up substantially from earlier this morning. Correct?

It was 2000 around 5AM EDT

That is almost an increase of 60%. That is substantial.

[Javlin]

Looking at the loops I have got to wonder is it land interaction with FL a problem?just like in the Carib with SA I wonder.The E side is just having a tuff time trying to fill in all the way getting better with time but also as it is moving away from FL also..

[MONTEGUT_LA]

well friends, we made it to Georgetown, Tx, but took a few hrs longer due to the baby's medical issue. He is set up in the hotel. First time out of the parish and state!



LOTS of my family and friends are riding this out. Many don't get that this is going to a big rain maker. A week or two ago, Houma flooded really bad in our "high ground" areas. It rain everyday for a week, off and on. The ground are too wet. I can see people needing rescuing.

Oh, how I sooooo wanted to check the board out on the way!! I think only you guys would understand lol. My husband said i'm a weather geek. I think after this he will be glad I am.

[Steve]

I hate wobble and model wars because they take away the quality. That's all I'm going to say so I don't get in trouble. The relocation slightly North last night along with some spins this morning both NNW/NW and West continue to show the stair track it's more or less taken since it got off Cuba. The lastest move is slightly north of due west. That was confirmed by the recon fixes. It has now made its way to the sat updates. If you have Flash, that's what I'm linking you to. Look at the CDO and see what you think. I expect some slides as the general center of convection circulates within the larger circulation. Click on the Tropical Forecast points and you can see just how good the NHC is.

Exhibit A - IR "Funktop"
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Look at the curved green inside the red, and what do you see?

Exhibit B - IR "JSL" :
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Look at the blue and white (presumably the "eye" wall) moving in the circulation

Exhibit C - Visible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
You can see the blowup around the center building

Disclaimer: I am in no way saying where this will or will not end up and only have science in mind when posting this. Thanks and everyone be safe!

[Texashawk]

According to recon pressure is now down to 988 MB and the LLC seems to be on a more westerly course (centered around 26 N)

[sunnyday]

I am thinking that Isaac won't strengthen to a hurricane at all. Does anyone agree?

This is, of course, my own opinion. Get accurate info from the National Hurricane Center or NWS.

[Wthrman13]

If I am not mistaken, that is up substantially from earlier this morning. Correct?

It was 2000 around 5AM EDT

That is almost an increase of 60%. That is substantial.

I personally wouldn't pay much attention to the CAPE analyses out over the Gulf. They are subject to large errors due to lack of data. Essentially what you are seeing is almost purely the short-range RAP forecast that serves as the background for the SPC mesoanalysis.

[Sanibel]

If it doesn't go to hurricane soon I'll have to reduce my category 3 prediction to 2. Time to fess-up this is still fatally dry on the east side and hindering development as a permanent feature.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[monicaei]

If I am not mistaken, that is up substantially from earlier this morning. Correct?

It was 2000 around 5AM EDT

That is almost an increase of 60%. That is substantial.

Sorry for the elementary school question, but is this good or bad? What is CAPE and how does it affect storms?

[jinftl]

Wobble wars on a tropical storm with alot of the weather displaced to the east of the center doesn't really even lend itself to wobble wars. Now if you are tracking an eyewall (think Andrew as extreme example where distance from the eye and eyewall meant homestead's damage vs. downtown Miami's damage), wobbles really matter

I hate wobble and model wars because they take away the quality. That's all I'm going to say so I don't get in trouble. The relocation slightly North last night along with some spins this morning both NNW/NW and West continue to show the stair track it's more or less taken since it got off Cuba. The lastest move is slightly north of due west. That was confirmed by the recon fixes. It has now made its way to the sat updates. If you have Flash, that's what I'm linking you to. Look at the CDO and see what you think. I expect some slides as the general center of convection circulates within the larger circulation. Click on the Tropical Forecast points and you can see just how good the NHC is.

Exhibit A - IR "Funktop"
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Look at the curved green inside the red, and what do you see?

Exhibit B - IR "JSL" :
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
Look at the blue and white (presumably the "eye" wall) moving in the circulation

Exhibit C - Visible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
You can see the blowup around the center building

Disclaimer: I am in no way saying where this will or will not end up and only have science in mind when posting this. Thanks and everyone be safe!

[SouthDadeFish]

CAPE now 3500 in the core

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

Yeah, but the mixed layer CAPE is very pathetic.

[tolakram]

According to recon pressure is now down to 988 MB and the LLC seems to be on a more westerly course (centered around 26 N)

Recon doesn't always fly directly through the center, plus the center will wobble around and respond to convection by moving towards it. In the end, when smoothed out, this matters little while in the open ocean. As the storm gets closer to land then wobbles make all the difference.

[cpdaman]

I personally wouldn't pay much attention to the CAPE analyses out over the Gulf. They are subject to large errors due to lack of data. Essentially what you are seeing is almost purely the short-range RAP forecast that serves as the background for the SPC mesoanalysis.