ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1155 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE
ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[northjaxpro]

Up to 50% now.

[CrazyC83]

It would be TS Alberto if the core clearly warms up.

[RL3AO]

Interesting that they didn't include the "or subtropical" part. Just tropical.

[CrazyC83]

Interesting that they didn't include the "or subtropical" part. Just tropical.

I guess they diagnosed this as a tropical low then.

[northjaxpro]

This system seems to be making the transition to warm core rather nicely to me. As a matter of fact, a new convective burst has occured near the center in the past couple of hours obseving radar and IR satellite imagery.

Given the current trends, I think the odds of seeing "Alberto" are becoming more likely as tme progreeses, possibly as early as late this afternoon.

[txwatcher91]

Any ideas on track for this if it were to develop? Some models I've seen carry it out to sea while others begin to drift it north later tonight and move it inland between MHX and ILM. Thoughts?

[brunota2003]

This system seems to be making the transition to warm core rather nicely to me. As a matter of fact, a new convective burst has occured near the center in the past couple of hours obseving radar and IR satellite imagery.

Given the current trends, I think the odds of seeing "Alberto" are becoming more likely as tme progreeses, possibly as early as late this afternoon.

Looking at the radar, it appears one happened within the last 15 minutes or so. Tops have spiked to above 40,000 feet in a decently sized area, and reds appeared on the radar.

Also of note, the first feeder band has formed on the NE side of the storm, and banding elsewhere is starting to appear on radar.

[RL3AO]

Any ideas on track for this if it were to develop? Some models I've seen carry it out to sea while others begin to drift it north later tonight and move it inland between MHX and ILM. Thoughts?

WRF brings a weak hurricane into NC tomorrow morning.

http://policlimate.com/weather/wrf/spc2012051900/spcc_uv900.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hi All,
Here is anouther sat loop for you, and links
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se/flash-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/se.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Most likely meandering over the next day before moving NE off the NC Outer Banks.

[northjaxpro]

Any ideas on track for this if it were to develop? Some models I've seen carry it out to sea while others begin to drift it north later tonight and move it inland between MHX and ILM. Thoughts?

93L/future Alberto will make it appears by the models a cyclonic loop, first drifting southwest toward the coast before being eventually picked up to the northeast by an approaching upper trough which is forecast to move in from the Upper Plains into the Ohio Valley by early next week.

[RL3AO]

Also gives NHC a chance to practice the "watches/warnings before first advisory" experiment they are running.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Yeah...hope it goes well so we'll see the 5 day TWO and pre-development watches/warnings next season.

[cycloneye]

I think is very extreme the intensity of 75kts despicted by WRF,but you never know.

[Aric Dunn]

close up vis loop and you can layer the radar over it

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/i ... h-rgb.html

[hurricanefloyd5]

chances of this coming to jacksonville fl as a tropical storm is what?

[Aric Dunn]

Its definitely tilted. the surface low is dropping wsw to sw while the mid level circ is getting left behind.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Near 0%

[Hurricane Andrew]

Aric: Was it always like that?