ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[thatwhichisnt]

"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE 20-40 METER HEIGHT RISES AT THE 500 MB AND 400 MB LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S....WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC HAS STRENGTHENED
SLIGHTLY".

This part of the disc is slightly interesting.....

What will this do to the storm?

[GCRain]

Could someone draw a circle on a satellite image to show just exactly where the center is? I'm ''image challenged'' I guess.

[KWT]

"THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS
MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE 20-40 METER HEIGHT RISES AT THE 500 MB AND 400 MB LEVELS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S....WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC HAS STRENGTHENED
SLIGHTLY".

This part of the disc is slightly interesting.....

What will this do to the storm?

Hard to say, it will probably keep the system on its current track, or maybe cause it go slightly further west, we'll have to wait and see really!

[crimi481]

Is the Center reforming more t N.E - or just looks that way
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[KWT]

Center will not reform now its down below 990mbs, it might get tugged around by the convection but the time for a reformation is gone I'd have thought.

[thetruesms]

Good analysis by the Hurricane Research Division indicating Isaac's TS winds only out to 134nm now vs. NHC's 180nm on the last advisory. Small area of 60 mph wind:

[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/hrd.gif[img]

That wind analysis is such a great product, but I always forget to check it for some reason.

[vbhoutex]

TWC just reported HH found 80mph gust by SFMR in NW sector. Today is getting more and more interesting.

[Blinhart]

Could we be getting a special Bulletin stating that we now have Hurricane Isaac, with a wind speed of 80mph and pressure of 987??

TWC just said Hurricane Hunters found those reading.

[wxwatcher1999]

So is the NHC stating there might not be anything there to pull it north?

[HurrMark]

Good analysis by the Hurricane Research Division indicating Isaac's TS winds only out to 134nm now vs. NHC's 180nm on the last advisory. Small area of 60 mph wind:

Sounds like it is tightening up...which could make it easier to intensify...very interesting.

[KWT]

TWC just reported HH found 80mph gust by SFMR in NW sector. Today is getting more and more interesting.

It all depends on whether the NHC 'believe' those figures though, the FL winds were quite abit lower at the time so I'd be a touch skeptical for now, especially as it was found in the NW side and thats not as strong as the NE side looking at that wind field map.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

See this page of recon for more on those SFMR readings:
viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113392&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=1440

[SouthDadeFish]

Check out this buoy:

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 17.1 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.6 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ENE ( 58 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.21 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.23 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.5 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.1 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 29.1 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 31.1 kts

Winds are almost 30 knots and the pressure is down to 989 mb...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003&unit=E&tz=STN

[Blinhart]

TWC just reported HH found 80mph gust by SFMR in NW sector. Today is getting more and more interesting.

It all depends on whether the NHC 'believe' those figures though, the FL winds were quite abit lower at the time so I'd be a touch skeptical for now, especially as it was found in the NW side and thats not as strong as the NE side looking at that wind field map.

Yet Jim Cantore stated he wasn't surprised to hear it was in the NW side of the storm.

[KWT]

Interesting to see SDF, would suggest the pressure maybe a little lower than the 988mbs that has been suggested recently by recon, either that or it has dropped away over the last hour or so, very possible if it pulls its inner core tighter suddenly.

[Blinhart]

Wave Height (WVHT): 17.1 ft

That is scary, I know that the waves when they get closer will be smaller, but will still most likely be around 10 feet, and that is on top of the storm surge, so we can be seeing water being up to 20 feet in some areas.

[hurricanes1234]

I would give Isaac an 85% chance of remaining the same by the 5 PM update. I would also give it a 65% chance of remaining the same (65 mph/988 mbar) by the 11 PM update.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blinhart]

I would give Isaac an 85% chance of remaining the same by the 5 PM update. I would also give it a 65% chance of remaining the same (65 mph/988 mbar) by the 11 PM update.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

That is pretty gutsy. I'm thinking the 2pm update will be at least 75mph/985mb, and the numbers slowly going up to where the 11pm could be as high as 90mph/980. Just looking at the progression of this storm, the atmosphere it is entering, and the projected slow down in forward speed.

[HurrMark]

Interesting to see SDF, would suggest the pressure maybe a little lower than the 988mbs that has been suggested recently by recon, either that or it has dropped away over the last hour or so, very possible if it pulls its inner core tighter suddenly.

There was a 987 in one of the VDMs.

It is slowly intensifying...nothing rapid, but I think this is what we would be expecting at this point.

[wxwatcher1999]

If the gfs keeps showing riding the coast to Texas wouldnt they put hurricane watches up for the upper Texas coast?