ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[underthwx]

I think no. 7 will fizzle evenrually...time will tell...but by the same token...it may roar to life...I think I covered myself suffciently...yall have a good weekend...

[ozonepete]

No, it's not a TS now. It's a weakening depression - IF that. Even the new NHC forecast has it dissipating within 72 hrs, and that may be generous.

Actually they have it slowly strengthening to a 40mph TS by 48hrs out, then suddenly croaking within 24hrs after that....which is one of the stranger forecasts I've seen.

It is quite difficult to actually kill a TS-strength circulation in the eastern Caribbean via shear unless it hits land -- witness Iris.

Tonight will be important: For any intensification to occur, I would expect to see CB towers finally penetrate and begin exhausting at 200mb as the storm crosses the 29c isotherm.

That's bogus, there's nothing to indicate conditions will suddenly allow it to strengthen then cause it to dissipate. They are just being cautious in case it does produce any TS wind in the islands (which even a tropical wave can).

Hey wxman, with all due respect, the official forecast is exactly for it to strengthen to a TS and then dissipate in the eastern Caribbean. That's exactly what they are saying. And remember that a lot of people on this forum were still saying Ernesto was an open wave and had a "few" TS winds even after it had numerous TS wind reports and proof of a closed circulation in the islands.

[psyclone]

the fact that the NHC is now calling for dissipation is telling. hopefully we don't waste a name on this one. of course there's always some chance it could beat the odds but this has and continues to look terrible.

[wxman57]

Hey wxman, with all due respect, the official forecast is exactly for it to strengthen to a TS and then dissipate in the eastern Caribbean. That's exactly what they are saying. And remember that a lot of people on this forum were still saying Ernesto was an open wave and had a "few" TS winds even after it had numerous TS wind reports and proof of a closed circulation in the islands.

I realize that. They're backing down from a forecast of intensification to 45 kts, to 40 kts, and now to 35 kts. Next forecast may just have it dissipating.

[Aric Dunn]

sometimes shear initially will aid convection and in this may hold back some of the sal from reaching the core which may allow for some modest strengthening tomorrow. shear is still not going to be all that high.

[ozonepete]

Hey wxman, with all due respect, the official forecast is exactly for it to strengthen to a TS and then dissipate in the eastern Caribbean. That's exactly what they are saying. And remember that a lot of people on this forum were still saying Ernesto was an open wave and had a "few" TS winds even after it had numerous TS wind reports and proof of a closed circulation in the islands.

I realize that. They're backing down from a forecast of intensification to 45 kts, to 40 kts, and now to 35 kts. Next forecast may just have it dissipating.

So the next forecast will be telling. And it better stop looking so good pretty soon, lol. It's now finally getting more symmetry.

[ozonepete]

sometimes shear initially will aid convection and in this may hold back some of the sal from reaching the core which may allow for some modest strengthening tomorrow. shear is still not going to be all that high.

that is well said and important for everyone to understand. And yes, the shear forecast is not really all that bad. It is certainly a pretty narrow band of shear just ahead of it that CIMSS shows right now.

[Aric Dunn]

just did a frame by frame arc circle analysis of the center location. the last frame before the sun went down there was a burst of convection on the west and se side of the circ. that area has expanded to cover the llc. if it continues we may end up with a TS after all

[Shuriken]

Small splotch of -75c tops with a speck of -80c:

[Aric Dunn]

just did a frame by frame arc circle analysis of the center location. the last frame before the sun went down there was a burst of convection on the west and se side of the circ. that area has expanded to cover the llc. if it continues we may end up with a TS after all

[Nederlander]

I'd like to ask a question to the Pro Mets.

Would you please name the top 3 models (Bamms, UKMet, Euro, etc for example) that you would consider have had the best track record for predicted course vs actual course.

NOT a pro-met, but I think most would agree that the GFS and Euro are the top two most reliable. (in no particular order, not trying to start a model war). Euro has performed a little better in past seasons, but GFS is performing very well this season thus far. As far as the third, it varies depending on who you ask (CMC, UKMET, GFDL, etc.).

[hurricanes1234]

Although 07L is still not very impressive, it is a lot better looking than today. On the latest AVN images, the cloudtops have cooled, noted by the bright reds and khaki colors. We'll wait and see if it gets any grays!
The 00z update is in just a little over an hour (if I'm not mistaken).

_______________
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[knotimpaired]

I'd like to ask a question to the Pro Mets.

Would you please name the top 3 models (Bamms, UKMet, Euro, etc for example) that you would consider have had the best track record for predicted course vs actual course.

NOT a pro-met, but I think most would agree that the GFS and Euro are the top two most reliable. (in no particular order, not trying to start a model war). Euro has performed a little better in past seasons, but GFS is performing very well this season thus far. As far as the third, it varies depending on who you ask (CMC, UKMET, GFDL, etc.).

I appreciate the reply.

Some of us out here have no clue about all of the technical issues and terms.

[ozonepete]

I'd like to ask a question to the Pro Mets.

Would you please name the top 3 models (Bamms, UKMet, Euro, etc for example) that you would consider have had the best track record for predicted course vs actual course.

NOT a pro-met, but I think most would agree that the GFS and Euro are the top two most reliable. (in no particular order, not trying to start a model war). Euro has performed a little better in past seasons, but GFS is performing very well this season thus far. As far as the third, it varies depending on who you ask (CMC, UKMET, GFDL, etc.).

I appreciate the reply.
Some of us out here have no clue about all of the technical issues and terms.

Thanks, Nederlander for beating me to it. We are always glad to help, knotimpaired. Just to add a little, the CMC is generally considered way too aggressive so that many of us don't take it that seriously; a lot of us laugh because it often develops a small disturbance into a cat 4 in a few days, lol. I would say that the GFDL, HWRF and BAMS models are very well respected and we all always consult them when something is developing or threatening. BTW, for every TC that we follow, the moderators set up a MODELS THREAD for the TC, so you should go in and look at what it shows. Since you clearly follow these threads very well I think you could get up to speed really quickly on the model basics that way.

[Aric Dunn]

NOT a pro-met, but I think most would agree that the GFS and Euro are the top two most reliable. (in no particular order, not trying to start a model war). Euro has performed a little better in past seasons, but GFS is performing very well this season thus far. As far as the third, it varies depending on who you ask (CMC, UKMET, GFDL, etc.).

I appreciate the reply.
Some of us out here have no clue about all of the technical issues and terms.

Thanks, Nederlander for beating me to it. We are always glad to help, knotimpaired. Just to add a little, the CMC is generally considered way too aggressive so that many of us don't take it that seriously; a lot of us laugh because it often develops a small disturbance into a cat 4 in a few days, lol. I would say that the GFDL, HWRF and BAMS models are very well respected and we all always consult them when something is developing or threatening. BTW, for every TC that we follow, the moderators set up a MODELS THREAD for the TC, so you should go in and look at what it shows. Since you clearly follow these threads very well I think you could get up to speed really quickly on the model basics that way.

here is a basic link that may help in your quest. each model has its strong areas and weak ones. btw ozonepete the "bam" models are only really useful in the deep tropics below 25n
http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm

[ROCK]

I dont think bones would be laughing if this got into the GOM and crushed NOLA as depicted by the 18Z NOGAPS....just sayin...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[drezee]

TD 7 is getting close to Buoy 41040:
Sustained Winds: 31kts
Gust:35kts
Pressure: 1011mb

[Aric Dunn]

TD 7 is getting close to Buoy 41040:
Sustained Winds: 31kts
Gust:35kts
Pressure: 1011mb

yeah been watching that. bet we see sustained TS given its forward speed.

[ozonepete]

TD 7 is getting close to Buoy 41040:
Sustained Winds: 31kts
Gust:35kts
Pressure: 1011mb

Hmmm. That buoy is well north of the tight center too.

[Aric Dunn]

TD 7 is getting close to Buoy 41040:
Sustained Winds: 31kts
Gust:35kts
Pressure: 1011mb

Hmmm. That buoy is well north of the tight center too.

only about 50 to 100 miles or so. the south side should have weaker winds. however before the axis passes should give us a good estimate. the next hour should have the highest winds if it takes the measurement at the right time.