ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#7161 Postby **WilmingtonSandbar** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:06 am

Dave wrote:Heartland rainfall amounts for those who were wondering. Valid from 8 am today to 8 am Sep 2nd. (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/HPC)

http://www.fallsky.com/isaac/isaacrainfall.gif

That would be much needed. I hope it pans out.

#7162 Postby **drezee** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:09 am

As I stated, they are using purely the SMFR for upgrade purposes.

HOWEVER...
BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE
WINDS.

#7163 Postby **Extratropical94** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:10 am

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:An important 1 knot off I guess.

I honestly don't think that one knot in SMFR winds should keep the NHC from pulling the trigger. Those estimates don't even have an accuracy of 1 or 2 knots.
If there's nothing else that would support not calling Isaac a cane, I guess they should finally upgrade. You don't get 90 knot FL winds with a TS normally, especially not over such a large area.

windnrain · #7164 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:10 am

drezee wrote:As I stated, they are using purely the SMFR for upgrade purposes.

HOWEVER...
BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE
WINDS.

Why?

Have they always done this?

HarryPotter · #7165 Postby **HarryPotter** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:11 am

HurrMark wrote:Surprise, surprise...still a TS.

I think post-analysis may consider this a hurricane (like Gaston), but I am starting to doubt if this ever will be a hurricane operationally.

I think the post-analysis on this is going to be very interesting. This system is a good case study in why intensity forecasting is a shot in the dark... Could be a lot to learn here. Not that I want it to be stronger, but the question is...why isn't it, and why when everything for the last several days pointed to a more intense system, did it not get there...? How can we get better? Hoping there is a good grad student who can turn this into a thesis.... :?:

Hoping everyone makes out ok along the gulf coast, though, with this impressive looking, strong TS... Let's not forget, 'cane, or not, an essentially stalled TS is nothing to balk at...

#7166 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:11 am

sponger wrote:Astroworld is still there? Went in 79!!!

Long gone - the site has sold for redevelopment.

#7167 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:12 am

drezee wrote:As I stated, they are using purely the SMFR for upgrade purposes.

HOWEVER...
BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE
WINDS.

They use a lot more than just a single criteria IMO. SFMR, type of presentation, etc. There have been instances where SFMR did not show hurricane force but they upgraded due to the quality of the low level organization. Isaac has horrible low level organization, so I support the call and I don't think there is anything unusual about it. Respectfully.

#7168 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:12 am

What I am worried about is that many people in the area of warning will not take Issac seriously as they hear in the news that is still a Tropical Storm.

Airboy · #7169 Postby **Airboy** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:16 am

Water rising pretty fast at Shell beach NO.
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8761305+Shell+Beach%2C+LA

cpdaman · #7170 Postby **cpdaman** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:16 am

on visible it looks like he's still trying to wrap up but i'm not sure if he can wrap up like this.

you can't just wrap up around some dry air you injested an hour or so ago and make a tighter eye finally , can u. bc it appears the dry air that was injested along the west side of the core an hour or two ago is being wrapped NW into the very center to isaac and almost gives the impression of consolidating. it would be very strange IMO to witness this.

i.e insteading of shedding injested dry air, it just wraps it up into the half closed eye then builds a tight core?

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... &itype=vis

#7171 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:17 am

A dropsonde near the surface recorded 81mph winds.....

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... to/1/large

#7172 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:19 am

Latest, center clearly visible.

#7173 Postby **BigB0882** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:24 am

Surprised they have this at 10MPH still. I thought it had slowed down more than that.

windnrain · #7174 Postby **windnrain** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:24 am

Le sigh...

Flight level winds have been at 87KT for a while.
There have been many "flagged" recordings of 70+ KT winds surface level.
This Dropsonde recorded 81 mph winds.

Still wont upgrade.

Dean4Storms wrote:A dropsonde near the surface recorded 81mph winds.....

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... to/1/large

#7175 Postby **tolakram** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:25 am

Dean4Storms wrote:A dropsonde near the surface recorded 81mph winds.....

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... to/1/large

For how long? Could be a gust, could be a bad measurement. Generally the literature I read says accuracy should depend on an average of 3 readings. <--- can't say I understand what I'm reading.

http://www.eol.ucar.edu/isf/facilities/ ... sonde.html

#7176 Postby **drezee** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:26 am

tolakram wrote:
drezee wrote:As I stated, they are using purely the SMFR for upgrade purposes.

HOWEVER...
BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...
WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE
WINDS.

They use a lot more than just a single criteria IMO. SFMR, type of presentation, etc. There have been instances where SFMR did not show hurricane force but they upgraded due to the quality of the low level organization. Isaac has horrible low level organization, so I support the call and I don't think there is anything unusual about it. Respectfully.

It is inconsistent. Even wxman57 stated the following:

wxman57 wrote:That was an observation from 1030Z (5:30am CDT). Current evidence supports 65kts or more.

Here's a GOES-14 rapidscan loop of an eye forming:
ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/ABI/HD/SRSOR/80 ... _182_X.gif

I am not the only one seeing this. I posted links to show the inconsistency from Alberto this year. The discussion from the NHC literally repeated what I said. This is not politics. No call to "support", for us it is all about the science.

rainstorm · #7177 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:27 am

looks to be crawling west.

superstareporter · #7178 Postby **superstareporter** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:27 am

I am wondering, we just had a NASTY rain band come through here, and on Wunderground radar it said the cell was moving at 158KTS!!! How high is that sample taken from usually and how can it be moving that fast, when the center of the storm is only 70MPH, is it centrifugal force or something?

SoupBone · #7179 Postby **SoupBone** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:27 am

tolakram wrote:Latest, center clearly visible.

[img][/img]

Boy visible and WV sure do paint two different stories. He looks ragged on WV.

nautical wheeler · #7180 Postby **nautical wheeler** » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:31 am

SoupBone wrote:
tolakram wrote:Latest, center clearly visible.

[img][/img]

Boy visible and WV sure do paint two different stories. He looks ragged on WV.

Was just about to post this. Core is in bad shape and is being split in two. The center looks like its wobbling all over the place.

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