ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

Yeah Tailgater, let's wait and see for more coming from the recon to have final datas on DT7:)

[RL3AO]

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111225
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 18 20120811
121630 1323N 05802W 9770 00305 0115 +235 +222 036015 016 014 001 00
121700 1322N 05801W 9770 00304 0115 +234 +217 047012 014 018 002 00
121730 1320N 05800W 9769 00305 0116 +230 +224 031011 011 010 002 00
121800 1319N 05758W 9772 00304 0118 +228 +221 027010 011 011 002 00
121830 1318N 05757W 9771 00307 0119 +220 +220 025007 008 004 004 01
121900 1317N 05756W 9771 00307 0119 +220 +220 011004 006 008 001 01
121930 1316N 05755W 9771 00307 0119 +220 +220 341003 003 005 002 01
122000 1314N 05755W 9771 00308 0119 +230 +224 292002 003 005 004 03
122030 1313N 05754W 9770 00309 0119 +233 +229 291004 005 006 004 00
122100 1312N 05753W 9771 00308 0120 +230 +230 282008 009 006 003 01
122130 1310N 05752W 9770 00309 0121 +230 +230 267008 009 005 003 01
122200 1309N 05751W 9770 00310 0122 +230 +230 242007 009 008 004 01
122230 1308N 05750W 9767 00315 0123 +220 +220 228009 011 012 005 01
122300 1307N 05749W 9768 00313 0122 +230 +230 217012 013 012 003 01
122330 1305N 05748W 9771 00309 0122 +231 +228 215011 012 013 002 00
122400 1304N 05747W 9772 00310 0123 +232 +227 204012 013 011 003 00
122430 1303N 05746W 9768 00314 0123 +230 +230 201013 013 013 003 00
122500 1302N 05745W 9770 00312 0124 +230 +227 200012 013 009 004 00
122530 1301N 05744W 9770 00312 0125 +231 +224 199011 012 009 004 00
122600 1259N 05743W 9771 00313 0125 +233 +219 197011 012 013 003 00

[Gustywind]

That's curious and a bit suspicious because of TD7 has increasing numbers... close maybe to TS force winds?!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

11/1145 UTC 14.0N 56.8W T2.0/2.0 07L
11/0545 UTC 13.8N 54.4W T1.5/1.5 07L

[Sanibel]

Looks like a D-Min practically vaporizing the convection.

[NDG]

Recon found a closed circulation much further south than estimated.

[tailgater]

They found west winds and we will probably have a VDM later. Pressures look pretty high.

[RL3AO]

Found the center. Not pretty but some 5kt west winds.

[Gustywind]

Recon found a closed circulation much further south than estimated.

Interresting, any link about that this latest important news?!

[RL3AO]

[cycloneye]

Center further south at 12z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2012081112, , BEST, 0, 133N, 579W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[tailgater]

Recon found a closed circulation much further south than estimated.

Interresting, any link about that this latest important news?!

I don't have any links but it's 100 miles almost due east of Barbados.

[RL3AO]

000
URNT15 KNHC 111235
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 19 20120811
122630 1258N 05742W 9773 00311 0126 +235 +212 197011 012 013 002 32
122700 1257N 05741W 9769 00315 0126 +239 +211 201010 010 005 006 00
122730 1256N 05740W 9768 00316 0127 +240 +215 202011 012 007 004 00
122800 1255N 05739W 9769 00316 0126 +235 +231 198013 013 007 004 00
122830 1253N 05739W 9768 00317 0127 +235 +231 197012 013 009 001 00
122900 1252N 05738W 9772 00313 0126 +237 +229 196013 013 008 004 00
122930 1251N 05737W 9774 00310 0125 +237 +230 193014 014 006 005 00
123000 1250N 05736W 9768 00317 0126 +235 +234 195015 016 013 002 00
123030 1249N 05735W 9772 00311 0124 +235 +228 195017 017 014 003 00
123100 1247N 05734W 9769 00313 0124 +236 +227 194017 017 014 003 00
123130 1246N 05733W 9771 00311 0124 +236 +226 195017 017 016 003 00
123200 1245N 05732W 9772 00311 0124 +240 +215 198017 018 015 003 00
123230 1244N 05731W 9771 00313 0125 +237 +225 199017 018 011 004 00
123300 1243N 05730W 9770 00314 0126 +236 +228 203015 016 006 004 00
123330 1241N 05730W 9772 00313 0125 +237 +225 199015 016 005 005 00
123400 1240N 05729W 9770 00314 0125 +235 +225 206015 016 006 004 00
123430 1239N 05728W 9770 00313 0126 +236 +227 208014 016 007 004 00
123500 1238N 05727W 9776 00309 0125 +242 +211 213013 015 003 005 03
123530 1236N 05727W 9770 00315 0125 +240 +216 204013 013 /// /// 03
123600 1236N 05729W 9768 00317 0127 +238 +217 192013 014 006 004 00

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111245
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 20 20120811
123630 1236N 05730W 9773 00314 0128 +238 +225 187013 013 007 004 00
123700 1237N 05732W 9772 00315 0130 +235 +233 181012 013 006 004 00
123730 1237N 05733W 9770 00318 0131 +234 +233 174013 013 009 004 00
123800 1237N 05735W 9771 00316 0130 +230 +230 170013 014 006 006 05
123830 1237N 05737W 9772 00316 0129 +235 +234 172014 014 007 004 00
123900 1237N 05738W 9769 00318 0129 +230 +230 173014 015 013 003 01
123930 1237N 05740W 9773 00314 0128 +230 +230 171014 015 005 005 01
124000 1238N 05741W 9768 00318 0128 +236 +229 169014 015 005 004 00
124030 1238N 05743W 9770 00316 0128 +236 +230 167014 015 010 003 00
124100 1238N 05745W 9770 00317 0128 +237 +230 167014 015 002 006 00
124130 1238N 05746W 9770 00316 0127 +240 +226 166014 015 006 005 00
124200 1238N 05748W 9770 00315 0126 +240 +228 167014 015 010 003 00
124230 1238N 05750W 9772 00314 0126 +240 +228 169014 014 008 004 00
124300 1238N 05751W 9772 00313 0126 +240 +228 171013 014 006 003 00
124330 1239N 05753W 9773 00312 0126 +240 +228 174013 013 007 004 00
124400 1239N 05754W 9771 00314 0127 +238 +228 172013 013 005 004 00
124430 1239N 05756W 9770 00315 0127 +237 +230 169013 013 005 004 00
124500 1239N 05758W 9770 00315 0126 +238 +229 166014 014 002 005 00
124530 1239N 05759W 9771 00314 0126 +238 +229 166015 015 009 003 00
124600 1239N 05801W 9769 00315 0126 +237 +229 165015 015 007 005 00
$$
;

[AJC3]

Impressive that it could keep a west wind given its fast forward speed. Looks like the center will pass right over Barbados.

Still, it looks pretty sickly and probably isn't long for this world as a TC.

[RL3AO]

[NDG]

Center further south at 12z Best Track.

AL, 07, 2012081112, , BEST, 0, 133N, 579W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

But so far I do not see that they found the estimated 1008mb pressure.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 111255
AF307 0107A CYCLONE HDOB 21 20120811
124630 1239N 05803W 9768 00315 0126 +235 +230 160014 014 007 003 00
124700 1240N 05804W 9774 00311 0127 +235 +233 162014 015 008 002 00
124730 1240N 05806W 9769 00315 0127 +235 +231 160015 015 003 004 00
124800 1240N 05807W 9774 00312 0127 +235 +231 160015 016 004 004 00
124830 1240N 05809W 9766 00319 0128 +233 +232 158013 015 005 002 00
124900 1240N 05811W 9775 00312 0128 +235 +234 160011 011 004 004 00
124930 1240N 05812W 9770 00317 0129 +235 +233 153011 012 002 004 00
125000 1240N 05814W 9769 00318 0130 +235 +230 152012 013 005 003 00
125030 1241N 05816W 9774 00314 0131 +235 +226 142009 011 003 005 00
125100 1241N 05817W 9764 00325 0132 +235 +227 144010 012 002 004 03
125130 1241N 05819W 9773 00316 0131 +237 +220 138008 009 004 005 00
125200 1241N 05821W 9772 00316 0131 +240 +212 142008 009 004 004 00
125230 1241N 05822W 9771 00317 0130 +239 +213 131010 011 006 005 03
125300 1242N 05824W 9764 00324 0130 +239 +211 123012 012 /// /// 03
125330 1243N 05824W 9762 00325 0130 +243 +213 119011 013 004 004 00
125400 1244N 05823W 9774 00313 0129 +248 +209 131011 012 005 004 00
125430 1245N 05822W 9769 00320 0130 +245 +217 148011 011 008 004 00
125500 1246N 05820W 9769 00319 0130 +243 +220 152011 012 007 004 00
125530 1248N 05819W 9772 00317 0131 +243 +214 151009 011 006 005 00
125600 1249N 05818W 9771 00319 0132 +239 +219 153009 009 004 005 00
$$

[wxman57]

It shouldn't be too surprising that the plane found a weak LLC in a tropical depression. It's moving close to 25 kts. Remember yesterday when I was measuring forward speeds of 28 to 36 kts? The consensus model was putting the center near St. Lucia Sunday morning vs. today. Even fast-moving tropical waves with heavy squalls can easily produce TS winds for short periods of times, with gusts to 50-60 mph. Seven looks a little less organized than Ernesto when it passed the islands, but it's on a decreasing organizational trend. That weak LLC won't last too much longer, most likely.

[wjs3]

I guess there's no recon discussion thread???

Odd that recon appears to have closed off a center, but no VDM yet. Wonder why. They should have sent it by now.