ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MGC]

Isaac is knocking on the door...based on the recon winds I think the NHC should upgrade ASAP. Eye wall approaching the mouth of the river...should be a landfall soon.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not a official forecast.

[bella_may]

looks like the center is just north of the nhc's forecast (click forecast point) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html

[BigB0882]

Looks like landfall is very very close. The only way it shouldn't landfall very soon is if it does head due West which I do not see on radar despite others seeing. NHC needs to issue a special advisory or this will have to be upgraded when they go back and take a look later in the year.

[Blinhart]

Well I just stepped outside, and the clouds here are barely moving, so that should be some what of a concern. There isn't much steering in the upper atmosphere so I think there is an excellent chance of this stalling out there and just continue consolidating.

[Extratropical94]

Strong winds are already working down to the surface.
A NOAA dropsonde indicated 93 knot winds (107 mph) at the 962 mb level.
The sonde hit water at 989 mbars, so it measured high-end Cat. 2 winds at approximately 1000 ft (300 m) above sea level.
Only the lower levels show weaker winds (excerpt from recon thread):
989mb (Surface) - 65 knots (75 mph) -> Cat. 1 at sea level
983mb - 65 knots (75 mph) -> Cat. 1 at 200 ft above sea level
977mb - 79 knots (91 mph) -> strong Cat. 1 at 400 ft above sea level
962mb - 93 knots (107 mph) -> moderate to strong Cat. 2 at 1000 ft and higher levels

[Sanibel]

I think land friction is making the core more compact as good as a badly dry air infused center can be.

[w5yne]

Well I just stepped outside, and the clouds here are barely moving, so that should be some what of a concern. There isn't much steering in the upper atmosphere so I think there is an excellent chance of this stalling out there and just continue consolidating.

I did the same so I'm off to Bayou Bend for a round of Golf .....

[Blinhart]

Looks like landfall is very very close. The only way it shouldn't landfall very soon is if it does head due West which I do not see on radar despite others seeing. NHC needs to issue a special advisory or this will have to be upgraded when they go back and take a look later in the year.

I'm sorry the center of the storm is still over 100 miles away and the storm is moving very slow so we are still many hours away from landfall, yes there is effects of Isaac coming in land, but land fall isn't until the Center makes landfall.

[Texashawk]

Bless his heart, he's trying so hard to grow up into a real hurricane:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Blinhart]

Strong winds are already working down to the surface.
A NOAA dropsonde indicated 93 knot winds (107 mph) at the 962 mb level.
The sonde hit water at 989 mbars, so it measured high-end Cat. 2 winds at approximately 1000 ft (300 m) above sea level.
Only the lower levels show weaker winds (excerpt from recon thread):
989mb (Surface) - 65 knots (75 mph) -> Cat. 1 at sea level
983mb - 65 knots (75 mph) -> Cat. 1 at 200 ft above sea level
977mb - 79 knots (91 mph) -> strong Cat. 1 at 400 ft above sea level
962mb - 93 knots (107 mph) -> moderate to strong Cat. 2 at 1000 ft and higher levels

With this information why are people still basically saying it is nearly impossible for it to make Cat. 2, if this continues dropping down to the surface and he continues strengthening which he should Cat. 2 is not out of the question, let alone Cat. 3.

[Fyzn94]

Bless his heart, he's trying so hard to grow up into a real hurricane:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Or in this case, Isaac's surroundings are Abraham attempting to sacrifice his life as a hurricane.

[Extratropical94]

Upgrade, he's a hurricane now!

000
WTNT64 KNHC 281618
TCUAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

[SunnyThoughts]

TWC reporting that NHC upgraded Isaac to Hurricane

[wkwally]

THe question is if the NHC will pull the hurricane trigger at 2 PM or not.
So far this storm has been just under hurricane wind speed all morning and night. IMO I think they will but, but then again Issac has been playing with everyone all night. Will it make cat 2, it could but I do not think so unless it stalls out over water.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wkwally]

Just seen it on the NHC site

[rtd2]

Regarding the matter of the hurricane deductible, if I recall correctly, for my policy in FL, the "hurricane deductible" was applicable to any named storm for which the NHC was issuing advisories. I don't *THINK* it mattered as to whether it was a TS or hurricane.

BUT I COULD BE WRONG... (I sold my house a year ago, so it's been awhile since I checked the Florida policy details!)

correct...named storm

[wkwally]

first Gulf hurricane of the season

[Blinhart]

So we now have Hurricane Isaac.

[Texashawk]

'Bout damn time

[wkwally]

Now the new question will it make cat 2