ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[crimi481]

The Low near Yucatan appears to split in two. (seen on WV link below)
One going N.E - other to the west
The one going N.E. ( Now close to W Tip Cuba) may join with the Low off S.W. Fl coast.

As posted yesterday - may end up a right sided rainy mess over Florida

Disclaimer - I know nothing
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

From HPC this afternoon.

FINAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE OF MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS. THE 12Z GFS SHIFTED SLOWER THAN ITS 06Z RUN WITH
THE ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DAYS 3-4...WHICH
BOOSTED CONFIDENCE IN USING THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME SORT OF AGREEMENT WITH STRENGTHENING A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN STAIR-STEPPING IT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 12Z
GFS WHICH TRACKS THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...THE LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STILL INDICATE A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WEATHER-WISE ACROSS THE CONUS...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE WILL HEAT THINGS UP OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S....WHILE TROUGHS ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS
SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS PLEASANTLY COOL DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A THREAT ALL ALONG
COASTAL REGIONS FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA.

[psyclone]

isn't it telling that you need to go back more than 50 years (1957) for your example? the fact is June storms are usually junk from a tropical perspective and rarely amount to more than a rain threat (although i do think that can be serious as allison 2001 proved). the upper levels are usually lousy and oceanic heat content is marginal. Alex of 2010 was a very impressive cane so it can happen. but if you're a probabilities person as i am, betting against june canes usually lets you cash a ticket.

For the first line, not really. Some of the analogues point to 1957 so that is more wood to the fire. Its extremely rare but this June and set-up is better suited than any I've ever seen other than maybe 2005. If you bet against a June hurricane then you've already lost (Chris).

i should have qualified landfallers. but any june cane is relatively rare. i don't don't care about fish storms. the fact remains a june hurricane landfall is very rare. you mention 57 and my first thought is what about all of the intervening years? we just think differently on the subject. this thing looks like the typical june system..hideous. but i'm watching since i live on the gulf and things can change. i'm just a fan of keeping risk in perspective and sometimes some water needs to be poured on that fire around here imo.

[Lane]

JC was just talking about the anti-cyclonic flow over the YP right now. However I am confused to whether or not that helps with formation or hinders it. Can someone please explain for me?

[ROCK]

60hr NAM..... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


72hr NAM...knocking on the Texas door...and its a big door...
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[crimi481]

This could be really amazing (Disclaimer - I know nothing)
The 2 Lows (the old "Void of clouds" N. Low - and the Yucatan Low) - appear to be sending
all the energy towards S.W / W. Central Fl coast. Potetnial for tremendous rain falls as Low's combine energy

This is shown Using Sat visual observations (leaving current Model analysis behind for moment)
On link page (left side) -used "Water Vapor" -I animated -used "Cool Season B&W Curve" (option on top right)

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[tolakram]

Another swirl being launched out of what may be the primary center.



live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[Houstonia]

Hou/Galv afternoon discussion:

.DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THE
SHORT TERM. THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE DAYTIME
HEAT IS THE MAIN WEATHER STORY. THE WEATHER PATTERN AFFECTING SE
TX CONSISTED OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NM...AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS AND SHEAR AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM THE
BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE INTO THE AR AND LA
BORDER...AND A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE YUCATAN.

THE MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN BUILDING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DID DIFFER ON HOW THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
DEVELOP AND ITS MOVEMENT. SEE THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR A MORE
DETAILED DISCUSSION. BECAUSE OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY...WILL GO
WITH THE CURRENT HPC GUIDANCE AND STAY WITH SLIGHT POPS ENTERING
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE INLAND
AREAS BY THURSDAY.

DID NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE
BROUGHT THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY. THE HEAT INDICES MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE
PATTERN DEVELOPMENT. DRIER AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE EACH DAY WILL
HELP KEEP THE DEWPOINT LOWER AND THUS THE HEAT INDICES EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

.MARINE...
TIDE LEVELS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
CONTINUED LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ENE WINDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF.
NOT EXPECTING MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD
CAUSE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LEVELS. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ALONG
THE BEACHES SHOULD BE RUNNING 1.8-2.0 FEET. SO WE`LL BE JUST BELOW
THE TOTAL 3.7 FEET CRITERIA (ASTRONOMICAL + METEOROLOGICAL) WHEN
WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES AT THE LOWEST
LOCATIONS. MAY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON WHAT EVENTUALLY EVOLVES IN THE GULF.

LARGE ELONGATED...AND POORLY ORGANIZED...DISTURBANCE EXTENDING
FROM THE CNTL GULF SOUTHWARD INTO THE YUCATAN AND CARIBBEAN STILL
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD OVER THE WEEKEND (MAYBE POSITIONED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF LA SUNDAY). SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THAT AND EVENTUAL TRACK IS STILL UNCLEAR AND
PROBABLY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL A GOOD LLVL CIRCULATION IS
IDENTIFIED. SPECIAL THANKS TO NWS SLIDELL WHO ORGANIZED A
CONFERENCE CALL WITH GULF COAST OFFICES AND TAFB TO COORDINATE THE
OVERALL MARINE FCST. WE WILL GENERALLY TREND WITH AN EVENTUAL WWD
TRACK DURING THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIODS WHICH WILL INCREASE
WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE - WHICH RUNS COUNTER TO THE WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE (WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM EWD). WE UNDERSTAND A LOT OF
FOLKS SEE AND USE THIS MODEL ONLINE AND USE AS GUIDANCE SO BE
ADVISED...AND EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES IN THE FCST BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. 47

[cycloneye]

Cancun web cam.

[floridasun78]

we getting alot rain here in miami we under FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

FLC011-086-230030-
/O.NEW.KMFL.FA.Y.0038.120622T2036Z-120623T0030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
436 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
EASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...HOMESTEAD MIAMI SPEEDWAY...SOUTH
MIAMI...MIAMI BEACH...MIAMI...KEY BISCAYNE...KENDALL...HOMESTEAD...
HIALEAH...CORAL GABLES...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

[crimi481]

Radar loop - Tampa
Figure 8 over middle State - land heated thin outer bands.
They pack a punch when overhead
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... W&loop=yes

[tailgater]

Yeah Mark you beat me to it. Cute little sucker.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HI RES VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ALOFT DO NOT LOOK VERY STRONG SO AS THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM LAND NEXT 24 HOURS THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE SOME MORE. CLOSER TO HOME...
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS SHIFTED TO THE INTERIOR IN RATHER
DEEP E/SE FLOW.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL DECREASE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH LOSS OF
HEATING BUT COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WHICH MAY AFFECT COASTAL LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPE. SO WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS THERE...SCATTERED ELSEWHERE. CLOUD COVER AND
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD IN THE LOW-MID 70S.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE 12Z SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE...MOST OF
WHICH SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT THIS WEEKEND THEN TURNING
WEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO ACCORDING TO THE HURRICANE CENTER. THE LATEST GFS
CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER BRINGING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA ON TUE.REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK...DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH A MOIST S-SE FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES...60 PERCENT SAT AND SUNDAY WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP NUMBERS THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK. TEMPS START OFF A FEW DEGS
BELOW CLIMO DUE TO HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP...SLOWLY RISING
TO AROUND CLIMO BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&


SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The GFS Ensemble Mean/ECMWF shows that wind shear will not be a problem for 96L. There is an anticyclone located in the Gulf that should eventually become stacked with the system and provide a low shear environment for the next several days. If 96L goes east, I could see it being a problem close to landfall, but if it goes west, it shouldn't be a problem.

Really not sure what you are looking at. The 72H 250 MB GFS ensembles show an upper low off the S TX coast (25/12z)...as does the operational model. This places 20 kts of southerly shear over the central Gulf.

By 120 hrs+ a high does build over the Gulf but it is over the SOUTHERN Gulf. This places 10-20 kts of westerly shear across the northern Gulf...which is where Debby/96L will be (north of 25N...which is what I was saying).

There is NO anticyclone over the Gulf now...only shear...and the northern Gulf will remain hostile according to the GFS ensembles AND the GFS operational model.

I'm going to have to disagree with you there. Just looking at satellite imagery can show you that there is a building anticyclone located in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Shear tendency maps show that wind shear has been lowering over the Gulf of Mexico for the past 24 hours, and it should continue to do so as the anticyclone expands. Any upper-level low near the system is likely far enough away to /not/ shear it and will likely help evacuate air instead.

[tolakram]

June 22nd 12Z global model roundup

48 hours, pretty decent agreement on the position.









96 hours, not so much

[cycloneye]

The 18z Surface Analysis.

[cycloneye]

Posting the afternoon AFD's from the GOM area NWS offices related to this system. Please,dont quote this long post,thanks.

Tallahassee

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday) Now that our confidence is
increasing that the Gulf low will track west of our region next
week, our area will come under the influence of deep layer
ridging. We will see a reduction in the PoP by Tuesday and
Wednesday as moisture connection the Gulf low gets cut off. The
hot, dry airmass will limit deep moist convection and cloud cover,
resulting in above-average high temperatures. Highs may approach
triple digit levels inland late next week.

Miami


.LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SPLITTING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL FORECASTING TO MOVE THE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN MODELS ARE STILL
MOVING THE LOW TO THE WEST TOWARDS TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...NHC IS LEADING ON THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN
MODELS ON MOVING THE LOW WESTWARD TOWARDS TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WE WILL FOLLOW THE NHC POSITION OF THE LOW MOVEMENT TO THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK TO
MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Brownsville

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AND
WHAT DIRECTION THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS BRING THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE THE GFS TAKES THE LOW EASTWARD. WITH THAT
SAID...SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND PROVIDE VERY WARM TO HOT AS WELL AND DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ASSUMING
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING AS LONG
PERIOD SWELLS BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK REACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST POSSIBLY ON TUESDAY. COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED
NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL LOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

Tampa

DISCUSSION... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY SUNDAY SOUTH OF
THE MIDDLE GULF STATES. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME MORE IN
LINE WITH A WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF A NEARLY
STATIONARY MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FOR THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BEEN THE
OUTLIER CONNECTING THE LOW WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH A REDEVLOPMENT OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS THOUGH INDICATE A MORE
WESTWARD MOVEMENT. DESPITE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOW..
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OF THE STATE UNDER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD
OVER THE WATERS BUT DEVELOPING MORE OVER THE LAND AREAS DURING THE
DAYS. WITH CONTINUED CLOUDINESS AND RAIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL.

Corpus Christi


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...OBVIOUSLY MOST OF THIS FCST PD
WL DEPEND LARGELY UPON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF WHAT WL LKLY BECOME THE
FOURTH-NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF. THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT POSSIBLE TRACKS AS OUTLINED BY THE
GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS SOLN IS STILL HOLDING ON TO A
MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WHICH WOULD AFFECT FLORIDA. HOWEVER WITH
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS (ECMWF...CANADIAN...NAM...UKMET...NOGAPS)
NOW INDICATING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THIS SYSTEM...IT WAS TIME
TO NUDGE THE FCST IN THIS DIRECTION. ALSO THIS WL BETTER MATCH UP
WITH NHC/HPC/TAFB/SURROUNDING WFOS AS WELL. SO DECIDED TO BUMP UP
THE SEAS AND WINDS THROUGH MIDWEEK. FOR NOW...WL ONLY GO AS HIGH AS
8 FT SEAS ARRIVING BY WED WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE BETWEEN SUN AND
TUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. WL BE MORE TEMPERED ON
THE WIND FCST GIVEN THAT THESE ARE DAYS 4-6 OF THE FCST AND DUE TO
LARGE TRACK UNCERTAINTY EVEN WITH THESE WESTERLY-SHIFTING GLOBAL
MODELS. WITH TIDES ALREADY RUNNING JUST OVER 1 FT ABV PREDICTED
LVLS AND DUE TO INCOMING LARGE SWELLS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
HIGH SURF WL LKLY BE AN ISSUE BEGINNING BY SUN AND MON. TOO EARLY
AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT AT GOING WITH TOO HIGH OF A POP FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FCST. WL PUNT AND MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS
BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED BY LATER SHIFTS. A
SUBSIDENT AND DRY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WL PREVAIL EITHER WAY THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE FCST AS A STRONG MID/UPR RDG AXIS REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WL KEEP HIGHS ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUE GIVEN THIS PATTERN.

New Orleans/Baton Rouge

.LONG TERM...
THE MONDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE GREATLY
DEPENDANT ON EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENTS OF LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
GULF. DESPITE MANY TRACK MODELS INDICATING A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO
THE NORTHEAST...IT APPEARS THE TROUGH THAT LIFTS THE SYSTEM
NORTHWARD WILL VACATE THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY TO FORCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN TIME. THIS
SHOULD PORTEND A DRY AND HOT PERIOD OVER LAND AREAS ALONG WITH
GUSTY CONDITIONS DUE TO GRADIENT WINDS.

Houston/Galveston

LARGE ELONGATED...AND POORLY ORGANIZED...DISTURBANCE EXTENDING
FROM THE CNTL GULF SOUTHWARD INTO THE YUCATAN AND CARIBBEAN STILL
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NWD OVER THE WEEKEND (MAYBE POSITIONED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF LA SUNDAY). SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT THAT AND EVENTUAL TRACK IS STILL UNCLEAR AND
PROBABLY REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL A GOOD LLVL CIRCULATION IS
IDENTIFIED. SPECIAL THANKS TO NWS SLIDELL WHO ORGANIZED A
CONFERENCE CALL WITH GULF COAST OFFICES AND TAFB TO COORDINATE THE
OVERALL MARINE FCST. WE WILL GENERALLY TREND WITH AN EVENTUAL WWD
TRACK DURING THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIODS WHICH WILL INCREASE
WINDS/SEAS OFFSHORE - WHICH RUNS COUNTER TO THE WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE (WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM EWD). WE UNDERSTAND A LOT OF
FOLKS SEE AND USE THIS MODEL ONLINE AND USE AS GUIDANCE SO BE
ADVISED...AND EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES IN THE FCST BETWEEN NOW AND
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.

Mobile/Pensacola

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WHICH DEPENDS HEAVILY ON HOW
THE SURFACE LOW EVOLVES AND MOVES ACROSS THE GULF. THERE REMAIN A
WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
WHICH DEPEND IN PART ON THE STRENGTH OF A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE
EAST COAST...AND HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THIS FEATURE EXTENDS...AND TO
WHAT DEGREE STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM LET THE SYSTEM BE
PRIMARILY AFFECTED BY THE PLAINS RIDGING...WHICH STEERS THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY AND IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE
SOLUTION. THE GFS IS STALLING THE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FOR
THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...CAUGHT IN A COL BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE
AND UPPER TROF...BUT LOOKS TO BE A DOUBTFUL SCENARIO. THE CURRENT
TWDAT DISCUSSION EXPECTS THE SYSTEM TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN ORIENTED ALONG THE EAST
COASTAL STATES WOULD FAVOR SUCH AN EVOLUTION. MY PREFERENCE IS FOR
THIS LATTER SCENARIO BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR NOW
UNTIL A BETTER CONSENSUS FORMS AMONG THE GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE
WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW WITH THE CAVEAT THAT HIGHER POPS MAY BE
NECESSARY EARLY ON IN THE PERIOD DEPENDING ON HOW THE GULF SURFACE
LOW PLAYS OUT.

Lake Charles

THE REAL CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT DURING THE FORECAST IS WHAT TO DO
ABOUT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. NHC IS
STILL GOING WITH A 70 PERCENT CHANCE SO IT IS LIKELY TO FORM PER
THEIR FORECAST. THEREFORE APPROACHED THE FORECAST ASSUMING IT WILL
FORM AND COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES CONCERNING WINDS AND
WAVES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ALL AGREE ON NORTHWARD MOVEMENT
TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY AROUND 00Z.
THEN THE GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DRIFT THE SYSTEM BACK TO
THE WEST AND GIVEN THAT... WENT WITH A COMPROMISE OF THAT SOLUTION.
ONE VERY INTERESTING VERSION IS THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH DEVELOPS AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS OF THE LATEST MODEL RUN IT HAS THE
STORM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE TEXAS COAST ALBEIT IS WAY TO EARLY TO
MAKE JUDGMENTS BASED ON JUST ONE MODEL GIVEN THAT NHC HAS YET TO
NAME THE SYSTEM. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING MONDAY AS THIS STORM BEGINS TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE WEST. RIGHT NOW HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
THROUGH TOMORROW AT 00Z BUT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR A
POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS WINDS AND WAVES BEGIN TO INCREASE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND COLLABORATE WITH SURROUNDING WFOS AND
NHC REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.NEED TO STRESS
THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BEEN NAMED NOR HAVE ANY ADVISORIES BEEN
ISSUED THEREFORE MUCH OF THE GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS AND
INFORMATION COMING FROM NHC REGARDING ANY AND ALL FUTURE DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

Key West

.SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE
NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF DURING SUNDAY...BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIVERGENCE I
MENTIONED IN THE ABOVE PARAGRAPH. GIVEN THE SLOW
ORGANIZATION...THINK THAT THE MASS FIELD WITHIN THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND SO THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE EVACUATED
INTO THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...FRESH BREEZES SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLIES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE FOR
POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...50%...AS DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH BETTER HEATING COULD ALLOW FOR CUBAN
BOUNDARIES TO RACE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS. THEN DURING MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO ENTER ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS
THE CIRCULATION MOVE EITHER NORTHEAST OR NORTHWEST TOWARDS TEXAS.

EXTENDED...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE DURING
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
RIDGING AND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. EVIDENCE OF TYPICAL WEAK WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGING RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS AND GENTLE TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLIES. STILL WILL LEAVE POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT 30%
UNTIL GREATER MODEL CONSISTENCY SHOWS UP ON THE HORIZON.

[crimi481]

There are many/ many Low's (small/med) spinning around everywhere now. Pick one
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

[Aric Dunn]

The fact its shooting that out is indications its not quite organized or the environment is ot conclusive enough yet... more waiting is required.