ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Janie2006]

So since it made landfall I wander how they plan to explain the eye that appears to be developing.

Disclaimer: this is not a forecast I am not a met just a comment.

They don't have to explain. The center remains over warm water and/or marshland. Problem solved.

Absolutely Janie. Most of the eye and way over half of the entire circulation is still over water or marshland is basically water to a hurricane.

Yah, Katrina was one of the most famous examples of this phenomenon in my opinion. She passed right over the southern tip of Florida without so much as a nod to the Everglades. IIRC, she may have actually strengthened a wee bit whilst over the swamps. So, Isaac gets to live a bit longer and wreak more havoc.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

IMO Isaac looks better on satellite now then he did hours before making first landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[HurricaneBrain]

Hurricane Isaac made landfall at 6:45 PM CDT in southeast Louisiana over the Mississippi River Delta. Radar shows the center of Isaac back over water and due west parallel to the coast of Lousiana.
-Weather Underground

[ravyrn]

Based on the wind change on this buoy in Grand Isle and the above picture, is it safe to say the center moved SSW or almost due south? That's one hell of a wobble! Interested to see the direction of the storm over the next few hours to see if a westward movements begins or it picks back up on its NW path.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HarryPotter]

Another update from the @twc_hurricane twitter: Doppler on Wheels crew at Port Sulphur, LA reports surge peaked 30min ago; waves were cresting over the 16ft levees there

(They're also calling TS Kirk at the 2300 eastern NHC update... But...that's a different forum... )

[ozonepete]

I know people have been saying that the longer it stalls off the coast, the more it can intensify but won't it also upwell cooler waters too if it stands over an area for too long?

No. It takes 24 hours or more for that to happen. Isaac will be well inland by then.

[LSU2001]

guys,
Can you keep posting radars. Due to power outages, I am currently without broadband. I am posting from my sprint mi fi device and from my ATT Atrix phone. I don't have enough bandwidth to load large pages but the radar ya'll have been posting loads fine.

Sit Rep. Winds gusting really hard now. South Lafourche Airport reporting sustained at about 53 with gusts to 71 mph. Not much rain but the wind is howling and only going to get worse. I sure don't want to see a stall but I guess that's what is happening. Any reports or warnings posted near cut off la. would be nice since the national weather service page just don't want to load for me.
Thanks,
Tim

[stormreader]

Yah, Katrina was one of the most famous examples of this phenomenon in my opinion. She passed right over the southern tip of Florida without so much as a nod to the Everglades. IIRC, she may have actually strengthened a wee bit whilst over the swamps. So, Isaac gets to live a bit longer and wreak more havoc.[/quote][/quote]

In the 1980's there was a tropical system that was upgraded to depression status. You know where it was centered??? Lake Ponchartrain! It eventually backed off the coast into the bay (Lake Borgne) where it became an uneventful Tropical Storm Beryl. Anyway, there's plenty of enough moisture to at least keep Isaac a churning---But he seems to actually be thriving!

[superstareporter]

I know people have been saying that the longer it stalls off the coast, the more it can intensify but won't it also upwell cooler waters too if it stands over an area for too long?

Most likely too shallow to upwell any cooler waters, as there are no deeper cooler waters there.

Disclaimer: I am not a professional, do not take what I say to be legit in any way shape or form.

[ronjon]

Tower just west of the center reporting winds 55 kt sustained and 67 kt gusts.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=spll1&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

[ozonepete]

huricanes always slow down or stall as they move onshore unless they are going more than 20-25 mph, but only for a few hours. From the radar and satellite it really looks like the eastern side of the eye will be over NOLA between 3 and 6AM CDT at the latest. There is nothing in the steering wind strength to suggest a stallout. If there is you need to point it out.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[setxndnfan]

I know people have been saying that the longer it stalls off the coast, the more it can intensify but won't it also upwell cooler waters too if it stands over an area for too long?

No. It takes 24 hours or more for that to happen. Isaac will be well inland by then.

You positive about that? Seems it is doing exactly what the latest models showed.

[stormreader]

IMO Isaac looks better on satellite now then he did hours before making first landfall.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

CDO expanding westward now toward Houma area.

[Stephanie]

TWC is speaking to Plaquemines Parish's President and he said that the US Corp of Engineers said that the worst was behind them regarding the storm surge???? It's still coming a shore, right?

[ROCK]

the NAM, NOGAPS, GFS ( to some extent) and that other new model the HRR saw a southwest movement then drift west....this might be it or maybe it just a wobble.

[ozonepete]

I know people have been saying that the longer it stalls off the coast, the more it can intensify but won't it also upwell cooler waters too if it stands over an area for too long?

No. It takes 24 hours or more for that to happen. Isaac will be well inland by then.

You positive about that? Seems it is doing exactly what the latest models showed.

The latest models (and NHC) show it well inland by 1PM tomorrow.

[SoupBone]

huricanes always slow down or stall as they move onshore unless they are going more than 20-25 mph, but only for a few hours. From the radar and satellite it really looks like the eastern side of the eye will be over NOLA between 3 and 6AM CDT at the latest. There is nothing in the steering wind strength to suggest a stallout. If there is you need to point it out.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I forget but are you a meteorologist? You really need to get blue if you are. So your thoughts are that he will move toward the NHC path?

[superstareporter]

TWC is speaking to Plaquemines Parish's President and he said that the US Corp of Engineers said that the worst was behind them regarding the storm surge???? It's still coming a shore, right?

Could be the tide is going out???

[Jevo]

With the storm just sitting nearly stationary in it's current location it has to be just blowing water right into Lake P... any reports on levees?

[ravyrn]

Drifting WSW now, according to recon.

I respectfully disagree with your drifting statement, but I do agree with your WSW movement. I anticipated wobbles, but not that SSW wobble! I am certainly interested to see the direction Isaac takes over the next few hours.