ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

AF 302 on the runway...

000
URNT15 KNHC 021525
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 01 20120802
151700 1742N 06448W 0162 00002 0165 +317 +286 360000 000 /// /// 03
151730 1742N 06448W 0163 00003 0166 +322 +285 360000 000 /// /// 03
151800 1742N 06448W 0162 00001 0165 +320 +284 360000 000 /// /// 03
151830 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0164 +322 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
151900 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0163 +336 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
151930 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0163 +337 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
152000 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0163 +333 +282 360000 000 /// /// 23
152030 1742N 06448W 0163 00001 0164 +342 +282 360000 000 /// /// 03
152100 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0161 +345 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
152130 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0161 +343 +283 360000 000 /// /// 23
152200 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0162 +323 +282 360000 000 /// /// 23
152230 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0162 +322 +282 360000 000 /// /// 23
152300 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0161 +323 +281 360000 000 /// /// 23
152330 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0162 +321 +280 360000 000 /// /// 23
152400 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0158 +317 +280 360000 000 /// /// 23
152430 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0155 +318 +279 360000 000 /// /// 23
152500 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0160 +317 +278 360000 000 /// /// 23
152530 1742N 06448W 0162 00002 0165 +318 +277 360000 000 /// /// 03
152600 1742N 06448W 0162 00001 0164 +321 +276 360000 000 /// /// 03
152630 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0161 +318 +276 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I have a theory, explained above in greater detail, and of course the disclaimer applies:
1. weak storm that never gets its act together much, puts a tropical storm at the most into the southern Yucatan/Mexico.
2. If it does get its act together though, then Ernesto ends up a hurricane 2/3 into Northern Texas.

[SouthDadeFish]

Still mostly popcorn convection:

[cycloneye]

Dave,departing from St Croix.

[Riptide]

It appears that TD5 is not producing strong convection but developing a good circulation pattern.

[meteortheologist]

Most of us we're thinking Yucatan then into Mexico. However a few of the past models are hinting at a possible US threat. Like someone else said lets see if it can survive the next two days.

thanks. also, COYS.

Did you look at the NHC site and their track? No better source.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l#contents[/quote]
appreciate it

[vbhoutex]

hmmm...set up next week will be very interesting for the Gulf if the future Ernesto can make it thorugh the next 48 hrs and continue to consolidate. A strong ridge seems to hold up until mid next week, and then it retreats a bit to the East as a trouch falls in across the middle of the country. It looks like there will be a slight weakness in the ridge as a result of that encroaching trough, and depending on how deep it comes down and its angle/positioning, that could greatly impact the final direction of probable Ernesto for the end of next week/the weekend.
If Ernesto stays weak, the path will remain on the southern side of the current model guidance, and will likely not be impacted at all by those developments to the north, and simply ride into the Yucatan and be Mexico bound, and possibly emerge into the southern BOC before continuing into Mexico or extreme southern Texas.
But if Ernesto slowly ramps up and is a stronger storm and takes a more northerly route to end up just south of Cuba or the Caymans, then a recurve to the North is more likely at that point, as it could be in a position to take advantage of a weakness and be swung to the NW or N. Forward speed then becomes critical for final destination, as a slow mover will eventually be pushed in a more westernly direction sooner as the ridge builds back in. A faster mover will continue more northerly over more water until the returning ridge could turn it towards the west. Impact could be anywhere along the northern gulf, with high SST's and additional strengthening likely.
However, an early Ernesto getting too strong too soon could send him on the suicide path over the mountainous island of Hispanola while the ridge is still strong, and make him much weaker, and unable to fully take advantage of any temporary weakness that may develop. In that weakened state, his path would return to a more westerly route. That could either then allow slow restrengthening as he continues on a more w to wnw path towards the gulf through the straits of Florida if he can avoid Cuba entirely. -but like starting over again as a weak storm/depression from that point forward, but with a returning building ridge that would likely push the storm even further west after getting into the southern gulf (possibly north texas bound). However, if he gets put into traveling Cuba lengthwise, then little would remain but an open wave by the time he made it through the island.
So the true test is how strong is it going to get in the short term, to see where it will be in about 5 days...either slowly strengthening south of Cuba, being weak much further south traversing the southern caribbean, or being pretty strong but taking aim at Hispanola.
My best guess now is that the storm will steadily ramp up and be a hurricane 2 near the Caymans, heading wnw/nw. It will be heading through the yucatan channel as it will feel the slight weakness developing to the north as it slowly rounds the southwestern edge of the retreating ridge and start a more northern route. It will scare the northern gulf coast from panhandle to texas, but the returning building ridge will ultimately move it into northern texas by next Sunday.
TOTALLY my guess this early in the game!!! But that's how I'm thinking about it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice analysisl I DO NOT LIKE your final destination however!!! What you call North Texas we call SE TX. Poofing would be the favored end!!

[SouthDadeFish]

15Z CIMSS wind shear analysis shows there is an upper level anticyclone just to the south of the center of TD 5:



As a result, most of the surface convergence and upper level divergence is to the South of the center of TD 5. If the system can sustain some deep convection over the actual center of circulation, it may be able to draw the anticyclone closer. (Not a professional forecast/analysis just my opinion)

[meteortheologist]

It appears that TD5 is not producing strong convection but developing a good circulation pattern.

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1208/visltd5edit.jpg

just more evidence that its wobbling into that dry air imo

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It appears that TD5 is not producing strong convection but developing a good circulation pattern.

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1208/visltd5edit.jpg

just more evidence that its wobbling into that dry air imo

Expanding outflow is not a sign of a dry environment.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021535
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20120802
152700 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0161 +321 +275 360000 000 /// /// 23
152730 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0162 +324 +275 360000 000 /// /// 23
152800 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0161 +324 +274 360000 000 /// /// 23
152830 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0160 +324 +273 360000 000 /// /// 23
152900 1742N 06448W 0161 ///// 0147 +319 +273 360000 000 /// /// 23
152930 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0159 +317 +273 360000 000 /// /// 23
153000 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0159 +316 +272 360000 000 /// /// 23
153030 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0160 +319 +272 360000 000 /// /// 23
153100 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0160 +317 +272 360000 000 /// /// 23
153130 1742N 06448W 0163 ///// 0160 +316 +272 360000 000 /// /// 23
153200 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0159 +322 +271 360000 000 /// /// 23
153230 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0160 +319 +271 360000 000 /// /// 23
153300 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0160 +318 +270 360000 000 /// /// 23
153330 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0160 +317 +270 360000 000 /// /// 23
153400 1742N 06448W 0160 ///// 0158 +323 +269 360000 000 /// /// 23
153430 1742N 06448W 0162 ///// 0160 +311 +268 360000 000 /// /// 23
153500 1742N 06447W 0160 ///// 0160 +303 +267 360000 000 /// /// 23
153530 1742N 06447W 0159 ///// 0159 +317 +266 360000 000 /// /// 23
153600 1742N 06448W 0158 ///// 0159 +314 +264 360000 000 /// /// 23
153630 1742N 06448W 0160 ///// 0160 +321 +263 360000 000 /// /// 23
$$
;


Still awaiting takeoff...

[Dave]

Dave,departing from St Croix.

Uh no still on runway...instruments are powering up though if you look at the two hdobs so far.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hmmm...set up next week will be very interesting for the Gulf if the future Ernesto can make it thorugh the next 48 hrs and continue to consolidate. A strong ridge seems to hold up until mid next week, and then it retreats a bit to the East as a trouch falls in across the middle of the country. It looks like there will be a slight weakness in the ridge as a result of that encroaching trough, and depending on how deep it comes down and its angle/positioning, that could greatly impact the final direction of probable Ernesto for the end of next week/the weekend.
If Ernesto stays weak, the path will remain on the southern side of the current model guidance, and will likely not be impacted at all by those developments to the north, and simply ride into the Yucatan and be Mexico bound, and possibly emerge into the southern BOC before continuing into Mexico or extreme southern Texas.
But if Ernesto slowly ramps up and is a stronger storm and takes a more northerly route to end up just south of Cuba or the Caymans, then a recurve to the North is more likely at that point, as it could be in a position to take advantage of a weakness and be swung to the NW or N. Forward speed then becomes critical for final destination, as a slow mover will eventually be pushed in a more westernly direction sooner as the ridge builds back in. A faster mover will continue more northerly over more water until the returning ridge could turn it towards the west. Impact could be anywhere along the northern gulf, with high SST's and additional strengthening likely.
However, an early Ernesto getting too strong too soon could send him on the suicide path over the mountainous island of Hispanola while the ridge is still strong, and make him much weaker, and unable to fully take advantage of any temporary weakness that may develop. In that weakened state, his path would return to a more westerly route. That could either then allow slow restrengthening as he continues on a more w to wnw path towards the gulf through the straits of Florida if he can avoid Cuba entirely. -but like starting over again as a weak storm/depression from that point forward, but with a returning building ridge that would likely push the storm even further west after getting into the southern gulf (possibly north texas bound). However, if he gets put into traveling Cuba lengthwise, then little would remain but an open wave by the time he made it through the island.
So the true test is how strong is it going to get in the short term, to see where it will be in about 5 days...either slowly strengthening south of Cuba, being weak much further south traversing the southern caribbean, or being pretty strong but taking aim at Hispanola.
My best guess now is that the storm will steadily ramp up and be a hurricane 2 near the Caymans, heading wnw/nw. It will be heading through the yucatan channel as it will feel the slight weakness developing to the north as it slowly rounds the southwestern edge of the retreating ridge and start a more northern route. It will scare the northern gulf coast from panhandle to texas, but the returning building ridge will ultimately move it into northern texas by next Sunday.
TOTALLY my guess this early in the game!!! But that's how I'm thinking about it.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Nice analysisl I DO NOT LIKE your final destination however!!! What you call North Texas we call SE TX. Poofing would be the favored end!!

Yes, I should have said "south east TX coast". I suspect that the storm, if it doesn't just head to the Yuc, would be "pushed" into TX from the ese/e, making the ugliest weather affect sw LA and norhtern SE TX coast. I'll even make a preliminary landing call...and boy is this far out: Freeport/Surfside Beach.

(TOTALLY FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES... I AM NOT A METEO PRO!!!!)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

12z GFS - 45hrs

[RL3AO]

54hr

[ozonepete]

It appears that TD5 is not producing strong convection but developing a good circulation pattern.

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1208/visltd5edit.jpg

Agreed, except that area you labeled outflow is actually low-level cloud bands moving in towards the center. The outflow is the thinner cirrus clouds at upper levels; that's what's lacking on the north side right now due to some shear.

[Sambucol]

I have a theory, explained above in greater detail, and of course the disclaimer applies:
1. weak storm that never gets its act together much, puts a tropical storm at the most into the southern Yucatan/Mexico.
2. If it does get its act together though, then Ernesto ends up a hurricane 2/3 into Northern Texas.

When you say northern Texas, do you mean the upper Texas coast?

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021545
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20120802
153700 1742N 06448W 0158 ///// 0159 +322 +261 360000 000 /// /// 23
153730 1742N 06448W 0157 00001 0159 +323 +259 360000 000 /// /// 03
153800 1742N 06448W 0155 00003 0159 +326 +258 360000 000 /// /// 03
153830 1742N 06448W 0153 00004 0159 +333 +256 360000 000 /// /// 03
153900 1742N 06448W 0152 00007 0161 +333 +255 360000 000 /// /// 03
153930 1742N 06449W 0149 00010 0161 +326 +254 360000 000 /// /// 03
154000 1742N 06449W 0143 00013 0160 +327 +252 360000 000 /// /// 03
154030 1742N 06449W 0144 00015 0161 +334 +251 360000 000 /// /// 03
154100 1742N 06449W 0145 00016 0163 +324 +250 360000 000 /// /// 03
154130 1742N 06449W 0141 00015 0157 +300 +248 069004 013 /// /// 03
154200 1742N 06448W 0119 00020 0146 +287 +245 065016 021 /// /// 03
154230 1742N 06447W 9865 00248 0144 +262 +240 063017 017 /// /// 03
154300 1742N 06446W 9636 00459 0146 +241 +234 069015 016 /// /// 03
154330 1742N 06444W 9326 00736 0145 +216 //// 061015 016 /// /// 05
154400 1741N 06442W 8976 01073 0146 +199 //// 076014 014 024 000 05
154430 1741N 06441W 8645 01393 0134 +194 //// 074014 015 /// /// 05
154500 1740N 06439W 8377 01664 0130 +182 //// 075016 018 /// /// 05
154530 1739N 06437W 8053 02005 0120 +174 +170 089017 018 /// /// 03
154600 1738N 06436W 7783 02296 0120 +157 //// 090017 018 /// /// 05
154630 1738N 06436W 7783 02296 0121 +141 //// 095018 018 /// /// 05
$$
;

Takeoff enroute TD # 5

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z GFS is showing easterly 200mb winds over TD 5 in the E Carib. That would verify the SHIPS forecast of low wind shear. Perhaps if TD 5 can survive the brisk trade winds, then conditions wont be all that unfavorable.

[wxman57]

The upper low to its north is "enhancing" the outflow on that side just a little TOO much, but that should be changing as the depression approaches the islands. Wind shear looks to be relatively light once it's in the Caribbean, which should allow for slow strengthening. I don't expect much impact on the islands. Could be a small area of TS winds on the north side, probably staying south of Guadeloupe, Gusty.

It could very well be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean next Tue/Wed and into the southern Gulf by late next Wed or early Thu. Won't venture any guess beyond then, as the models probably don't have the flow right that far out. Much will depend on how much the ridge to its north weakens early next week. Won't rule out an eventual impact anywhere at this time - from southern MX to the FL Panhandle. I think the FL Peninsula is probably not going to be impacted, as that ridge to the north should hold through Monday, regardless of how strong the storm becomes. (not saying the FL peninsula is 100% out of the woods yet, though).