ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Was that Holguin station that reported winds of about 84 kt a 1-min or 10-min sustained? If the former, I estimate the landfall intensity was 95 kt, since it only weakened slightly it appears over land. If the latter, I estimate the landfall intensity was 105 kt.

[bahamaswx]

Now, on the other hand, Long Island, eastern Exuma, and Eleuthera will be hammered.

Long Island got wrecked by Irene just last year! Damage in Exuma was surprisingly minimal.

[SouthDadeFish]

If the plane found 126 knot flight level winds AFTER Sandy crossed Cuba, I could only guess they would have found stronger winds if they had sampled the SE quadrant right before landfall....

Just my opinion.

[CrazyC83]

If the plane found 126 knot flight level winds AFTER Sandy crossed Cuba, I could only guess they would have found stronger winds if they had sampled the SE quadrant right before landfall....

Just my opinion.

I am just unsure on the sustaining period of a land report as Sandy was leaving Cuba. I think that will determine its landfall intensity. 95 kt seemed reasonable if it was 1-min sustained, but if it was 10-min sustained, then almost certainly Sandy hit Cuba as a major hurricane.

[Frank2]

Thanks to wxman57 for that update - that verified what I thought to be seeing (that it was 1 degree or 100 miles eastward of the forecast track than forecast, which as we know makes a big difference)...

Our winds in South Florida this morning are fresh from the ENE with showers moving inland from the Atlantic - nothing really unusual for down here during certain times of the year and as Miami mentioned perhaps the TS Warning will be dropped later today (if that trend continues)...

And since it is a tight system that would preclude the large wind field issues some feared we'd experience in Florida, but as wxman57 said the issue in the NE is something to be considered - that'd be one for the record books, that's for certain...

Frank

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83, do you think Sandy will be upgraded to Cat 3 in post season analysis after the very close data to that just before landfall in Cuba?

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, do you think Sandy will be upgraded to Cat 3 in post season analysis after the very close data to that just before landfall in Cuba?

I think it depends on the sustaining period of the report that came from Holguín Province of surface winds of about 84 kt.

If that was 1-min sustained, then 95 kt seems reasonable based on slight decay and the fact that was where the strongest winds went, since the aircraft data also supported a 95 kt intensity. If that is a 10-min sustained wind, however, that would translate into about 94 kt at that moment, so adjusting for inland decay would support a 105 kt landfall intensity, and a post-season upgrade.

[tolakram]

First VDM after Cuba

000
URNT12 KNHC 251215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012
A. 25/11:47:10Z
B. 21 deg 38 min N
075 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2816 m
D. 70 kt
E. 286 deg 9 nm
F. 051 deg 58 kt
G. 300 deg 12 nm
H. 968 mb
I. 8 C / 3049 m
J. 18 C / 3049 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. E33/35/25
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 0618A SANDY OB 08
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 126 KT SE QUAD 11:53:00Z
MAX OUTBOUND SFC WIND 85 KT SE QUAD 11:57:00

Eyewall still intact so intensification still likely IMO.

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83, do you think Sandy will be upgraded to Cat 3 in post season analysis after the very close data to that just before landfall in Cuba?

I think it depends on the sustaining period of the report that came from Holguín Province of surface winds of about 84 kt.

If that was 1-min sustained, then 95 kt seems reasonable based on slight decay and the fact that was where the strongest winds went, since the aircraft data also supported a 95 kt intensity. If that is a 10-min sustained wind, however, that would translate into about 94 kt at that moment, so adjusting for inland decay would support a 105 kt landfall intensity, and a post-season upgrade.

Interesting. I imagine that NOAA folks will go down there to gather all the data and decide then.

[Steve H.]

Looks like Sandy is going well easst of the forecast track. Unless it starts to bend NW it may keep Florida in better shape, and stated in the other thread, TS warnings may be dropped later today for SE florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheEuropean]

I think it could also be upgraded because of the 126 kt-wind measured by the plane after the hurricane crossed Cuba. Just before crossing land there should have been winds like this, too. About 105 kt (Cat 3) at landfall would be logical for me.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track at 90kts.

AL, 18, 2012102512, , BEST, 0, 216N, 755W, 90, 966, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[weatherwindow]

Now, on the other hand, Long Island, eastern Exuma, and Eleuthera will be hammered.

Long Island got wrecked by Irene just last year! Damage in Exuma was surprisingly minimal.

Great Abaco...particulary(from south to north)..Sandy Point, Cherokee Sound, Little Harbour, Hopetown, Marsh Harbour, Green Turtle Cay, Cooperstown, Spanish Cay, Walkers Cay...is likely to be ground zero and to be raked from S to N...Likely worse damage since Irene and a cut below Floyd(1999)

[canes04]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


She will hit the breaks today and turn NW by this evening.
Squally weather in store for the East coast of Florida through Saturday morning.

[bahamaswx]

Now, on the other hand, Long Island, eastern Exuma, and Eleuthera will be hammered.

Long Island got wrecked by Irene just last year! Damage in Exuma was surprisingly minimal.

Great Abaco...particulary(from south to north)..Sandy Point, Cherokee Sound, Little Harbour, Hopetown, Marsh Harbour, Green Turtle Cay, Cooperstown, Spanish Cay, Walkers Cay...is likely to be ground zero and to be raked from S to N...Likely worse damage since Irene and a cut below Floyd(1999)

Not unless she stops moving NE very soon!

[Aric Dunn]

She will hit the breaks today and turn NW by this evening.
Squally weather in store for the East coast of Florida through Saturday morning.

yeah, already getting sustained at 30 to 35 in SE florida at some reporting stations with gusts in the mid 40's. Depending how amplified the 2 troughs get will determine how strong the ridging will build in. latest cimss analysis shows the ridging building the sandy's NNE so she should slow way down here shortly and begin to turn.

[MiamiensisWx]

She will hit the breaks today and turn NW by this evening.
Squally weather in store for the East coast of Florida through Saturday morning.

yeah, already getting sustained at 30 to 35 in SE florida at some reporting stations with gusts in the mid 40's. Depending how amplified the 2 troughs get will determine how strong the ridging will build in. latest cimss analysis shows the ridging building the sandy's NNE so she should slow way down here shortly and begin to turn.

It is still moving faster than originally expected, so in my view, the NNW turn should not make much of a difference, as the center will be over eastern Exuma, not to the west...meaning winds below TS intensity in SE FL.

I think the Exumas, Long Island, and Eleuthera will see an 85-kt / 100-mph impact, as the jet entrance is creating favorable divergence over a large anticyclone, thereby making shear beneficial for some re-intensification over the next day.

[Bocadude85]

She will hit the breaks today and turn NW by this evening.
Squally weather in store for the East coast of Florida through Saturday morning.

yeah, already getting sustained at 30 to 35 in SE florida at some reporting stations with gusts in the mid 40's. Depending how amplified the 2 troughs get will determine how strong the ridging will build in. latest cimss analysis shows the ridging building the sandy's NNE so she should slow way down here shortly and begin to turn.

She is still booking it to the NNE. Appears to be well east of the NHC track. I am not sure South Florida is going to much more weather then we are currently experiencing from Sandy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-rb-short.html

[bahamaswx]

Interested to see if the pressure's dropping yet. Recon pass #2 coming up.

[tolakram]

Latest. Convection continues to wrap around center.



Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10