ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Heavy rain area headed towards SE Florida with some oranges/yellows showing up east of Palm Beach County....I would suspect some tropical storm force gusts in those:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[MiamiensisWx]

The GEFS ensemble consensus is beating the ECMWF within the short term (36 hours) due to the east-of-north movement. The fast movement might also make the doomsday scenario (which was never exactly doomsday) less likely for the Northeast, with a NW turn likely to occur later and mean more of a Canadian/N-ME impact.

This system might be a good reminder as to how hyped-up scenarios often do not pan out as presupposed...

[HurricaneFrances04]

Winds are very gusty in Lake Worth at the moment. I could feel my car rocking in the parking lot in some greater gusts.

[HURAKAN]

"La estación meteorológica de Punta Lucrecia, en la provincia de Holguín reportó a las 5 de esta mañana vientos sostenidos del sudeste de hasta 155 kilómetros por hora, con rachas de 190 kilómetros por hora."

José Rubiera, Cuba's Head Meteorologist, reports that at 5 am, Punta Lucrecia in Holguín, Cuba was reporting sustained winds of 96 mph and gusts to 118 mph.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... ISO2&TB2=0

[GCANE]

Very strong eyewall on the north quad as it came off Cuba.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... W.83pc.jpg

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is starting to slow down when I loop the vis loops. It did take a bit of a NE jog over Cuba (good for Florida), but now let's see if it take on a more NNW movement the models are predicting. I agree with Aric, it should come soon especially since it is slowing down which would suggest a turn to the NNW should commence.

Upper-level low west of the system remains in tact as seen on WV loops, that could also induce a more NNW movement, if Sandy deepens quickly over the Bahamas.

[MiamiensisWx]

NWS Miami hints that sustained TS winds may well remain east of South FL when Sandy makes its closest approach. The NHC is being prudent, however, and retaining the warnings due to the small margin of error:

.SHORT TERM...
HURRICANE SANDY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN CUBA IS FORECAST BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO MOVE NORTHWARD TODAY AND INTO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND BY
FRIDAY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COASTAL
AREAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS...THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. SO WILL CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE EAST COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND A
WIND ADVISORY WILL BE GOING UP FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDMFL&version=1&max=61

[bahamaswx]

I don't see any slowing down.

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't see any slowing down.

If anything, it looks to be accelerating slightly after departing from N Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/18L/flash-swir-long.html

[psyclone]

Thanks to wxman57 for that update - that verified what I thought to be seeing (that it was 1 degree or 100 miles eastward of the forecast track than forecast, which as we know makes a big difference)...

Our winds in South Florida this morning are fresh from the ENE with showers moving inland from the Atlantic - nothing really unusual for down here during certain times of the year and as Miami mentioned perhaps the TS Warning will be dropped later today (if that trend continues)...

And since it is a tight system that would preclude the large wind field issues some feared we'd experience in Florida, but as wxman57 said the issue in the NE is something to be considered - that'd be one for the record books, that's for certain...

Frank

i agree that the TS warning for Florida should be dropped but it probably won't be until they're positive such conditions won't happen. the same thing happened here with Isaac in the tampa bay area. our warnings were continued well after it was obvious isaac was moving much farther west. i refer to these as "legacy warnings" and you see this quite a bit. my guess is that florida hazards will be primarily marine in nature with little in the way of true trouble on land.

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[Aric Dunn]

did they send out the gulfstream at all ?

[nativefloridian]

Looks like it is starting to slow down when I loop the vis loops. It did take a bit of a NE jog over Cuba (good for Florida), but now let's see if it take on a more NNW movement the models are predicting. I agree with Aric, it should come soon especially since it is slowing down which would suggest a turn to the NNW should commence.

Upper-level low west of the system remains in tact as seen on WV loops, that could also induce a more NNW movement, if Sandy deepens quickly over the Bahamas.

Saw that too

[artist]

"La estación meteorológica de Punta Lucrecia, en la provincia de Holguín reportó a las 5 de esta mañana vientos sostenidos del sudeste de hasta 155 kilómetros por hora, con rachas de 190 kilómetros por hora."

José Rubiera, Cuba's Head Meteorologist, reports that at 5 am, Punta Lucrecia in Holguín, Cuba was reporting sustained winds of 96 mph and gusts to 118 mph.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... ISO2&TB2=0

do you know if they have sustained much damage? Are any of your family in that area? Heard any news yet? Thinking of ya,

[boca]

They were premature with cancelling school here in south florida

[MiamiensisWx]

i agree that the TS warning for Florida should be dropped but it probably won't be until they're positive such conditions won't happen. the same thing happened here with Isaac in the tampa bay area. our warnings were continued well after it was obvious isaac was moving much farther west. i refer to these as "legacy warnings" and you see this quite a bit. my guess is that florida hazards will be primarily marine in nature with little in the way of true trouble on land.

These are the types of situations that make me concerned about future complacency due to unnecessary school closings, lost work hours, reduced productivity due to storm mode, et cetera. People may become more finicky in their decisions to prepare and may make incorrect judgments when a more serious event arises due to uncertainties surrounding the track. The same will occur elsewhere if the main impact of Sandy is in Canada and N Maine (as seems increasingly probable) rather than the greater Northeast / Mid-Atlantic--there has been so much coverage on the threat that many people cannot comprehend the possibility that it may not verify as models initially suggested. I know I was a bit guilty as well in terms of elevating the threat, though not as much as some people were.

The legacy warnings + media = perceptions that lead to expectations that may not verify but cause headaches in the process. When the next major disaster strikes the United States, I have a feeling that it will still cause many deaths and contain the element of surprise (even though it may well be warned and communicated quite well), simply due to human nature after all the storm fatigue over non- (or mostly non-) events.

[HurricaneFrances04]

They were premature with cancelling school here in south florida

Better than a call at 2 am.

[DESTRUCTION5]

They were premature with cancelling school here in south florida

The ONLY reason schools are not in session is due to the high profile of buses and the kids safety getting from and to school..Any threat of winds 40 MPH or more here will take buses off the roads and in turn CANCEL school..

[HURAKAN]

[quote="artist"]do you know if they have sustained much damage? Are any of your family in that area? Heard any news yet? Thinking of ya,[/quote]

My family is on the other side of the island, in Havana, fortunately they're safe. I suspect Santiago de Cuba sustained very heavy damage, it's Cuba's second largest city (used to be the capital back in colonial times) and there are many historical, colonial buildings that could have collapsed. Thanks for your thoughts!! Appreciate it!!

[MiamiensisWx]

They were premature with cancelling school here in south florida

Better than a call at 2 am.

It is still a largely political decision, in my view--who would want to be liable for injuries during a storm, even if the injuries were not solely related to sustained wind speeds? Bad drivers are much more likely to cause problems than 35-kt / 40-mph winds here in South FL, based upon my experience.

Anyway, I am glad that Sandy’s family is secure in W Cuba...the point about historic, crumbling structures and old infrastructure across the island is a serious issue as previous storms have caused significant flying debris due to the frailty of old infrastructure.

[fci]

They were premature with cancelling school here in south florida

Funny how that works.
Last time with Isaac, PBC schools waited until like 2:00 AM to cancel and this time when they are proactive, it looks like it will blow up in their faces and tomorrow will be a nice day.
I believe Broward and Dade already had 1/2 days scheduled for today and a teacher's workday tomorrow.