SIO: CHANDA - Moderate Tropical Storm

[HURAKAN]

GFS and ECMWF show development

[HURAKAN]

ECMWF 12z in 111 hours

[Grifforzer]

RSMC Reunion
15:00 RET January 5 2012

The area of convection located since yesterday over the northern channel is better defined this afternoon. Satellite imagery along with microwave imagery from TRMM at 0829 AM UTC show that a low may be located near 15.2S 42.7E about 200 km north of Juan de Nova and 350 km south southwest of the Comoros archipelago. surface low pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa. Surprisingly, 24 hrs pressure trends in nearby stations show some slow rise at present time. Within a mainly favorable environment (SST in the 28-29C, low shear under the upper level ridge, good divergence aloft with 2 potential outflow channel to the north and south and good monsoon low level inflow) and only a lack of tradewinds inflow as a negative factor, this low is expected to significantly deepen within the next three days. It should move little within the next 24 to 48 hours and then move towards the western or southwestern coast of Madagascar. Consequently, unhabitants of this area should closely follow the progress of this system.

Heavy rains risk is still present for the next 24 hours for large part of the northern channel, included the Mozambique coasts (between 10S and 15S), the Comoros archipelago and the northwestern coast of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor. Beyond, risk becomes fair to good during the week end in the Mozambique Channel.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[francis327]

ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
42.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 43.0E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION,
WITH LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 051523Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNS OF
SOME SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY BETWEEN TAU 24
AND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE
AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing

[Chacor]

MF TWO has poor potential in next 24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Grifforzer]

RSMC Reunion
15:00 RET January 6 2012

The area of convection located since yesterday over the northern channel is better defined this afternoon. Satellite imagery, ASCAT data of 0651Z along with MW imagery from TRMM at 0733Z show that a low may be located near 16.5S 40.7E about 200 km West of Juan de Nova. sea level pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa.

Within a mainly favorable environment (SST in the 28-29C, low shear under the upper level ridge, good divergence aloft with 2 potential outflow channel to the north and south and good monsoon low level inflow) and only a lack of tradewinds inflow as a negative factor, this low is expected to significantly deepen within the next three days. It should move little within the next 24 hours and then move towards the western or southwestern coast of Madagascar. Consequently, unhabitants of this area should closely follow the progress of this system.

Heavy rains risk is still present for the next 24 hours for large part of the northern channel, included
the Mozambique coasts (between 10S and 15S), the Comoros archipelago and the northwestern coast of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is poor to fair, and become to good during the week end in the Mozambique Channel.

[cycloneye]

ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/061800Z-071800ZJAN2012//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
43.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION, WITH LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 061519Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BANDING.
STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC ALONG THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION
REMAIN FAVORABLE AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
185 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 40.2E TO 21.1S 44.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.5S 40.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
43.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION, WITH LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW,PARTICULARLY ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 061715Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BANDING STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC ALONG THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND THE IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
43.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT
REGION, WITH LOW (10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW,PARTICULARLY ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. A 061715Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BANDING STRUCTURES ARE BECOMING MORE
ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC ALONG THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM
FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
SEE REF A (WPTN21 PGTW 061930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

[P.K.]

AWIO20 FMEE 071159
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2012/01/07 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Nil.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
Transequatorial flow is well established West of 60E, and is weak East of 80E. It supplies the
disturbed weather area 99S in the Mozambique channel. Over the Indian Ocean, the ITCZ is poorly
defined and with weak convective activity.
Extratropical Depression EX-BENILDE :
Centred at 1000 Z : near 29.2S/73.6E
Movement : South-South-eastward at about 6 kt
Maximum winds : 30 kt.
Estimated MSLP : 994 hPa
ASCAT data of 0453Z show winds of 25/30kt located far away from the centre (within an area
from 100NM to 300NM radius from the centre in the southern semi-circle). The system is expected
to proceed south-eastwards and merge with a mid-latitudes trough, by 24 to 36 tau.

Zone of disturbed weather in the Mozambique channel:
Animated satellite pictures depicts fluctuating convection. At 1100Z the LLCC is located
approximately near 17.8S/41.3E, about 180km south-west of Juan de Nova. It moves currently eastsouth-
eastward at about 4kt. The MSLP is estimated at 1004hPa. The sea level pressure at the
station of Juan de Nova varied from -2hPa over the past 24 hours.
Environmental conditions are favourable for the deepening of this low : SST of 28-29°C, good
monsoon inflow, weak vertical wind shear, good upper level divergence (cf. CIMSS). The trade
inflow is expected to improve by 12 to 18 tau in relation with the rebuilding of the subtropical
anticyclone south of Madagascar. This system is forecast to develop rapidly within the next 12 to 36
hours. It is forecast to track south-eastward, under the steering influence of a low to mid level ridge
in its north.
According to the avalaible NWP models, this system should make landfall south-west of
Madagascar (in the area of Morondava) during sunday to monday night. This forecast is uncertain
due to the fair confidence in the actual location of the LLCC.
There is no other suspect area over the basin.
For the next 24 hours, the potential for the development of a tropical depression is good in the
Mozambique Channel.

[Chickenzilla]

Where to get the advisories of the RSMC Reunion?
Some images of Invest 99S from sat24.com



This post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the official products.
The Invest 99S is probably a TD by now.

[Extratropical94]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... oreunion2/

Then click on the tab "Suivi Cyclonique" and then on "Bulletin". It is in French though.

[HURAKAN]

NRL says 05S, 35 kt

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061921Z JAN 12//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (FIVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.4S 41.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 41.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 42.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.9S 42.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.9S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.8S 44.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 05S IS LOCATED
IN A DIFFLUENT REGION 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE IN CONTRAST TO THE LOW LEVEL
EASTERLIES PROVIDING MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). AS A RESULT OF THE VWS, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC, HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT IN AN OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT
DESPITE THE VWS, THE SYSTEM IS BENEFITTING FROM AMPLE DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT AN
ESTIMATED 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 071507Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS CLEAR LOW-LEVEL BANDING STRUCTURES SPIRALING INTO THE LLCC,
WITH A FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ON
MADAGASCAR AFTER WHICH TC 05S WILL DISSIPATE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST
TRACK IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 061930).//
NNNN

[Reesie]

@ Extratropicalcyclone94 and Chickenzilla

For the english version of the advisories go here: http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reu ... index.html and click on operational products.

However at the minute they are calling 05S a Zone of Disturbed Weather in todays http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/La_Reunion/webcmrs9.0/anglais/activiteope/bulletins/zcit/liste.html%20 Tropical weather outlook and havent initiated advisories.