SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[Crostorm]

[HurricaneBill]

Deadly tropical cyclone hits Mozambique

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 240029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.8 S / 39.3 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 936 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 310 SE: 300 SW: 90 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 70 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 31.2 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0-, CI=6.0+. THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH AN EYE
BETTER DEFINED, ALWAYS VERY SMALL, BUT COOLER, WITHIN A COLDER CDO. THE
SYSTEM SHOW ALWAYS AN INNER CORE VERY SMALL WITH LESS THAN 60 NM
DIAMETER (REFER TO SSMIS 1504Z) WITH A CURVED BAND MORE THAN AN HALFTURN.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, FUNSO KEEPS ON UNDERGOING THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL MID-LEVEL HIGHS PROLONGATED BY A
RIDGE IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEPS ON TRACKING
SOUTHWARDS.
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR
REGULAR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU60 OVER HIGH HEAT CONTENT
WATERS.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDERGOING THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING MIDLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER LESS WARM WATERS AND TO WEAKEN
UNDERGOING A STRENGHTENING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST ALL THE
TRACKS OVERSEA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHANNEL.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 240648
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 39.5 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 936 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :11 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/24 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/26 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/26 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/27 06 UTC: 26.0 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/28 06 UTC: 28.9 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/29 06 UTC: 33.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+. AFTER A MAXIMUM AT 2030Z YESTERDAY, SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS RAPIDLY
FLUCTUATED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS SMALL SIZE. EYE IS STILL MINUSCULE
WITHIN A VERY COLD 90 TO 120 NM CDO.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FUNSO REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A RIDGE SITUATED IN THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP A SOUTHWARD
TRACK. BEYOND, RIDGE MOVES AWAY EASTWARD AS A SHALLOW TROUGH
TRANSISTS IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FROM WEST TO EAST. DO, FUNSO MIGHT
DECELERATE AND TAKE A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY FAVOURABLE UNDER A
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OVER HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS.
FROM J+3, SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BY
ACCELERATING WITH A DEEPER TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME, A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD
SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND FUNSO WILL ENCOUNTER MORE AND MORE COLD
WATERS. SO SYSTEM MIGHT PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
INHABITANTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHANNEL (INCLUDING EUROPA
ISLAND) SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

Latest, very impressive

[HURAKAN]

Great picture from NASA

- corrected!

[Chickenzilla]

Great picture from NASA

That was Yasi!

Very strong warm core

Funso is impressive.

[HURAKAN]

Great picture from NASA

That was Yasi!

Oops, my mistake! Should've looked twice. I googled "FUNSO" and saw an article with this picture and my head made the connection, which was wrong, sorry!!

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 932
WTIO30 FMEE 241247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3 S / 39.1 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 936 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 130 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 200 SE: 190 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/25 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 39.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/28 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 40.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/29 12 UTC: 32.0 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0+, CI=6.0+.
SYSTEM INTENSITY IS MORE STABLE FOR THE LATEST HOURS. GENERAL STRUCTURE IS UNCHANGED. EYE IS STILL
MINUSCULE WITHIN A VERY COLD 90 TO 110 NM CDO.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE SITUATED IN THE EAST MOVES AWAY EASTWARD AS
AN OTHER RIDGE MIGHT REBUILT A BIT IN THE WEST. AFTER AN ACCELERATING FOR THE DAY ON A SOUTH-SOUT
HWESTWARD TRACK, FUNSO MIGHT DECELERATE AGAIN TOMORROW AND TAKE A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK DUE TO RIDGE GOING AWAY EASTWARD. WITHIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REM
AIN VERY FAVOURABLE UNDER A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND OVER HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS. SYSTEM MIGHT KEEP
ITS CURRENT INTENSITY WITH FLUCTUATIONS.
FROM J+3, SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A DEEPER T
ROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE SAME TIME, A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDS
HEAR SHOULD SLOWLY AND THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND FUNSO WILL ENCOUNTER MORE AND MORE COLD WATERS
. SO SYSTEM MIGHT SLOWLY WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
ACCORDING TO THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK, FUNSO MIGHT TRANSIT IN THE WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND AT ABOUT
140 KM WESTWARD. STRONG WINDS WITH GUST IN THE RANGE OF 100/110 KM/H AND HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED.
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

zoom

[HURAKAN]

I imagine it's not "so fun" to be in Europa and Bassas right now. Fortunately they're not habited

[CrazyC83]

Are there weather stations on those islands?

[HURAKAN]

Are there weather stations on those islands?

I have been trying to find them but have been unsuccessful

[Chickenzilla]

Are there weather stations on those islands?

I have been trying to find them but have been unsuccessful

I have found a weather report

That 5690 m is 0 Celsius height,molto forte means very strong,>10 km is visibility

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 241837
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/24 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 39.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 130 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 60 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/25 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/25 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 38.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/26 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/26 18 UTC: 24.1 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/27 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/27 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/28 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/29 18 UTC: 33.2 S / 45.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5+ AND CI=6.0 F17 SSMIS 1451Z SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL CLOSING AT ABOUT 25 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE.
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS PROBABLY BEGAN , WHICH SHOULD
WEAKENED FUNSO INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
NEITHER METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY NOR MSG2 NIGHT SPECIAL COLORED
COMPOSITE PRODUCT DO NOT ALLOW TO CONFIRM THAT THE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS BEGAN BUT SHORT RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS HIGH PROBABILITY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS EAST.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY AS ANOTHER ONE STRENGTHENS ON THE
WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
FUNSO IS CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN WITHIN WEDNESDAY
25.
IF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMPLETE, FUNSO SHOULD START A
NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE
WEDNESDAY 25 UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AN EXPECTED BUILDING
SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.
THIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UP
TO FRIDAY 27.
THEN, FROM SATURDAY 28, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHSOUTHEASTWARDS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEEP TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE
MID-LATITUDE.
AT THIS RANGE, SYSTEM WILL UNDERGOING BOTH COOLER SST AND AN
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE SAME TIME.
FUNSO SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
ACCORDING TO THE ACTUAL FORECAST TRACK, FUNSO MIGHT TRANSIT IN THE
WEST OF EUROPA ISLAND AT ABOUT 150 KM WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS. STRONG WINDS GUSTING AT ABOUT 100/110 KM/H AND HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED.
A TRANSITING TRACK MORE CLOSER THAN EXPECTED IS NOT EXCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[weatherwindow]

per weather underground.....europa island 10min average winds...nne 57 mph..as noted earlier..."not a very pleasant day on europa"...rich

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 250042

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/8/20112012
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FUNSO)

2.A POSITION 2012/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.3 S / 38.5 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 941 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 300 SW: 240 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 230 SE: 230 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 120
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/25 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 38.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/01/26 00 UTC: 23.6 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/26 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/27 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/27 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 39.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/28 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/29 00 UTC: 30.6 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/01/30 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=5.0 AND CI=5.5+
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (REFER TO SSMIS F17 24/1451Z), FUNSO SATELLITE FEATURE HAS DETERIORATED AND THE PINHOLE EYE HAS DISSIPATED , REPLACED BY A BAD DEFINED AND COLDER EYE.
SYSTEM IS WEAKENING.
NEITHER METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY NOR MSG2 NIGHT SPECIAL COLORED COMPOSITE PRODUCT DO NOT ALLOW TO CONFIRM THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS UNEDRWAY BUT SHORT RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS VERY HIGH PROBABILITY.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH AND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING IN ITS EAST.
THE POLAR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EVACUATE RAPIDLY.
THEN, UNDER THE ONLY STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK , ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SUSTAINED BY A BUILDING SECOND OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD THIS WEDNESDAY 25.
THIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE UP TO FRIDAY 27.
WHEN THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BE COMPLETE, FUNSO SHOULD START A NEW INTENSIFYING PHASE.
FROM SATURDAY 28, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A DEEP TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE MID-LATITUDE.
AT THIS RANGE, SYSTEM WILL UNDERGOING BOTH COOLER SST AND AN STRENGTHENING WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN THE SAME TIME.
FUNSO SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS SCENARIO.

ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, FUNSO IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK AWAY FROM EUROPA ISLAND.
STRONG WINDS GUSTING AT ABOUT 100/110 KM/H SHOULD OCCUR TODAY AND THE NEXT NIGHT.