SIO: FUNSO - Tropical Cyclone (08S)

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Hurricanehink]

Is this the remnants of Dondo?

[HURAKAN]

Is this the remnants of Dondo?

1st I thought the same thing, but Dando kept moving inland weakening over Mozambique and this is another disturbance over the northern part of the Mozambique Channel

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Is this the remnants of Dondo?

here you can clearly see Dando and 95S as two separate systems

[Hurricanehink]

Is this the remnants of Dondo?

here you can clearly see Dando and 95S as two separate systems

Thanks! That makes it so much clearer.

[Chacor]

Ex-Dondo still surprisingly decently organised overland. A potential South Atlantic disturbance?

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS22 PGTW 181930
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181851Z JAN 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 41.6E TO 18.9S 39.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 41.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 68.9E
//

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

19/0000 UTC 17.5S 41.2E T2.5/2.5 95S -- Southwest Indian

35 kts says Dvorak

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 251
WTIO30 FMEE 190118
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 41.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/19 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 40.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 37.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CONVECTION HAS BUILT NEAR THE CENTRE DURING THE LAST HOURS.
1834Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS NOW MAXIMUM WINDS AT ABOUT 20/25 KT WITHIN A WELL DEFINED CLOCKWISE CIRCUL
ATION.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) AND ALSO AVNO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUT
HWESTWARDS FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 48 TO 60 HOURS AND THEN A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK.
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST, ONLY THE VICINITY OF THE
COAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS MAY LIMITATE THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 190725
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/8/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.4 S / 40.8 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/19 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 38.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 38.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/22 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 39.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 39.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LATEST SAT IMAGERY DEPICT AN OVERALL IMPROVING
ORGANISATION WITH RECENTLY SOME CONVECTIVELY BANDS WRAPING IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) AND ALSO AVNO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUT
HWESTWARDS FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 36 TO 48 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THEN A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST .
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR THE QUELIMANE
REGION ... WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE EXCLUDED AT THIS TIME

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
WTXS32 PGTW 190900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 17.3S 40.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 40.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.8S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.6S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 18.8S 38.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 18.8S 37.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.7S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.4S 37.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.2S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 40.5E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181921Z
JAN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 181930 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z AND 200900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

METEO FRANCE track

[HURAKAN]

Funso is born, expected to become a very dangerous system

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 714
WTIO24 FMEE 191250
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 19/01/2012 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 003/8 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).
GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: THURSDAY 19/01/2012 AT 1200 UTC.
PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNSO) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING
UP TO 170 TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTORS.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER AND EXTENDING UP
TO 60 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2012/01/20 AT 00 UTC:
18.3 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2012/01/20 AT 12 UTC:
18.7 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED FUNSO BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF MADAGASCAR.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 871
WTIO30 FMEE 191332
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/8/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FUNSO)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 40.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 38.3 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 37.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 37.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 37.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 40.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/01/24 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSISTENTLY IMPROVED LAONG THE DAY WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION FLARRING AND WRAPP
ING AROUND THE CENTER. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGERY DEPICT AN HINT OF A WARM SPOT IN THE CDO. CO
NSEQUENTLY, INTENSIFICATION COULD BE STRONGER THAN SAID IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
EUROPEANS NWP MODELS (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR
ECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 36 TO 48 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN A EASTWA
RDS TO SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITH A STEERING FLOW DIRECTED BY THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
BEFORE A NEW WESTWARDS TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER TH E STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STR THAT SHOULD BUILD SOUTH OF THE CHANNEL .
OVER THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVOURABLE FOR REGULAR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH
A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WELL SUSTAINED BY TWO UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, HEAT POTENTIAL IS STRONG OVER 29/30 CELSIUS SST. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCE
SS IS HELD OFF BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE LITTLE NEAR THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS. TH
IS SLOW MOTION OVER THE SAME WATERS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTORS.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET CLOSER OF THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS NEAR THE QUELIMANE
REGION ... WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT IMPACT THAT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME ...INHABITANTS
OF THIS SECTOR SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SYSTEM.
NNNN

[Chacor]

Fairly different forecasts from MF and JTWC then, with JTWC having it hugging the African coast while MF has a far more rapid recurve south.