SIO: ETHEL - Extratropical Depression (07S)

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 210059
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/21 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 63.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SW: 330 NW: 90
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 220 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 60 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 26.4 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 30.3 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 32.7 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 35.4 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5 CI=4.0-
CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
DETERIORATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHEASTWARDSRECURVING MOTION AND EXTRATROPICALISATION (WITH RE-DEEPENING
EXPECTED NOW).
LATEST CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOW A CONSTANT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT
ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE SYSTEM.
RODRIGUES ISLAND IS NOW OUT OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
ETHEL.

[HURAKAN]

on its way out

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 211340
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.2 S / 64.0 E
(TWENTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 70
48 KT NE: SE: 40 SW: 40 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 26.8 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 29.7 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 34.3 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI=3.5
SYSTEM BEGIN TO UNDERGO A STRONG WIND-SHEAR AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO
LOCALIZE THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE. THIS NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MIGHT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BEYOND, SYSTEM MIGHT BE ASPIRE IN THE WESTERLY CIRCULATION OF MID-LATITUDES WITH A SOUTH-EASTWARD RECURVING MOTION AND A CLEAR EXTRATROPICALIZATION. STRONG WINDS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THIS EXTRATROPICALIZATION.

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 220027
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/7/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/22 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 64.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SW: 300 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 200 SW: 200 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 27.7 S / 65.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 31.1 S / 67.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
36H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 33.7 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
48H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 39.9 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 AND CI=3.5
CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DESTRUCTURED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (30KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS ANALYSIS) AND THE SYSTEM ARRIVING OVER COOLER SST.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND, SYSTEM MIGHT MERGE WITH THE WESTERLY CIRCULATION OF MID-LATITUDES WITH A
SOUTH-EASTWARD RECURVING MOTION AND A CLEAR EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION. STRONG WINDS SHOULD PERSIST DURING
THIS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION.

[HURAKAN]

[b]WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 007//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ETHEL) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 25.0S 64.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 64.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 28.2S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 31.2S 68.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 34.2S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 64.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (ETHEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
212142Z TRMM IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS BECOME DE-COUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS
SHEARING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 07S IS NOW TRACKING INTO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
BASED ON THE TRMM IMAGE AND THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC IN IR
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 07S HAS
BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
(FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN[/]b

[HURAKAN]

Thank you for playing! goodbye!!

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 221927 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/7/20112012
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-ETHEL)
2.A POSITION 2012/01/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.4 S / 65.9 E
(TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 460 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 190
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/23 06 UTC: 32.3 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
24H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 36.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM IS TAKING AN EXTRA-TROPICAL PATTERN.
AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHSOUTH-EASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH THE WESTERLY CIRCULATION OF MID-LATITUDES.
STRONG WINDS SHOULD PERSIST DURING THIS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION, WITH
HIGH SPEED OF THE TRACK.
COR : THIS WARNING IS THE LAST FOR THIS SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MONITORED IN
ACK BULLETINS FQI020.