SIO: ETHEL - Extratropical Depression (07S)

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest GFS .. 95S (left) and 94S (right)

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Grifforzer]

ZONE PERTURBEE 07-20112012

At 10:00 AM RET, Area of disturbed weather 07R (1001 hPa) located at 12.9S 70.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
12 HRS: 14.5S 68.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.0S 66.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.5S 64.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.6S 62.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
Deep convective activity has consolidated near the center within the last 24 hours. The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west-south-westwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 3 days then a southwards re-curving motion. Within the next 60 hours, environment remains favorable for further development.

Low level equatorward inflow remains very good. Poleward inflow is expected to weaken within the 19 in relationship with a weakening in the subtropical belt but should improve again after that. In the upper levels, system takes currently benefit from 2 good outflow channels. The equatorward one is expected to progressively dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours but the poleward one should improve day after day. Vertical easterly wind shear remains weak to moderate within the next 30 hours.

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 181241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/7/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7
2.A POSITION 2012/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 69.9 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/19 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 67.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/19 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 65.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/22 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/23 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0- AND CI=2.0-
THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AND IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS OWN WEST-SOU
TH-WESTWARDS MOTION, IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR EXIS
TING OVER THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS HOWEVER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CURVED BAND.
MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW REMAINS RATHER GOOD BUT INDIRECT DUE TO THE ITCZ IN THE NORTH..
POLEWARD INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THURSDAY 19 IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING IN THE S
UBTROPICAL BELT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN AFTER THAT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY BENEFIT FROM 2 GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE EQUATORWARD
ONE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THE POLEWARD ONE SHO
ULD IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY.
VERTICAL EASTERLY WINDSHEAR REMAINS WEAK TO MODERATE WITHIN THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

latest track

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 181801

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/7/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7

2.A POSITION 2012/01/18 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 68.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/19 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/01/19 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/20 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/20 18 UTC: 18.1 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/21 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 62.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/21 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/22 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/23 18 UTC: 26.5 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AND IN RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS OWN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS MOTION, IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR EXISTING OVER THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS LOCATED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CURVED BAND.

MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING MOTION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW REMAINS RATHER GOOD BUT INDIRECT DUE TO THE ITCZ IN THE NORTH..
POLEWARD INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THURSDAY 19 IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WEAKENING IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE AGAIN AFTER THAT.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER DAY.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

[HURAKAN]

Ethel is the next name

18/1730 UTC 13.4S 68.4E T2.0/2.0 94S -- Southwest Indian

30 kt

[Chacor]

If and when it were to be named, Mauritius would have naming rights.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTXS21 PGTW 181900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 69.2E TO 17.7S 65.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 181731Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 68.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 191900Z.
//

[Chacor]

Upgraded to a TD:

057
WTIO30 FMEE 182350

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2012/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 67.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 40 NW: 40




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/01/19 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/01/20 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/01/20 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 64.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/01/21 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/01/21 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/01/22 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/01/23 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/01/24 00 UTC: 34.8 S / 76.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE AND IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS OWN WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS MOTION, IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
EXISTING OVER THE AREA.
LOW LEVEL VORTEX IS LOCATED UNDER A THE SMALL CDO.

MOST AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO FORECAST A
SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS THEN A SOUTHWARDS RECURVING
MOTION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS, ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RATHER FAVOURABLE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SYSTEM TAKES CURRENTLY ALWAYS BENEFIT FROM A
GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE DAY AFTER
DAY.
VERTICAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY THE
SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.=

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 07S.SEVEN

[HURAKAN]

19/0000 UTC 14.2S 67.7E T2.5/2.5 94S -- Southwest Indian

35 kts says Dvorak

[HURAKAN]

latest visible image ... looking great!! The environment looks favorable for further intensification

[HURAKAN]

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
WTXS31 PGTW 190300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 14.2S 67.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 67.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.9S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.6S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 19.1S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 23.8S 62.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.1S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 30.9S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 67.3E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181851Z
JAN 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 181900 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[SouthDadeFish]

Starting to look pretty good with raw ADT estimates at T 3.5:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2012 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 14:40:09 S Lon : 67:13:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1001.8mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.9 3.5

Center Temp : -81.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[HURAKAN]

Latest track