SPO: INVEST 96P

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/2309 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD06F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 180.0 AT
202100 UTC. SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 28-29C.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT NEAR THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ORGANISTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA. TD06F LIES ALONG THE SPCZ, UNDER 250
HPA RIDGE AND EAST OF UPPER TROUGH IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.


MOST MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/1014 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION [TD06F] CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 21.0S
179.2E AT 220900 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 28C.

ORGANISATION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH. CONVECTION
REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE SYSTEM WITH TOPS COOLING IN THE PAST 3
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE SPCZ, JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE 250HPA
RIGGE AXIS, INFLUENCED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND CENTERED IN
A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. LLCC WAS FULLY EXPOSED AROUND
06 UTC. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible and infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/2327 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION [TD06F] CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 22.3S
179.4E AT 222100 UTC MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
FAIR BASED ON MTSAT/VIS IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 27C.

ORGANISATION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH. CONVECTION
DISPLACED EAST OF PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE SPCZ,
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE 250HPA RIDGE AXIS, INFLUENCED BY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 23/0915 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION [TD06F] CENTRE [1003HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 23.1S
179.7W AT 230600 UTC MOVING SOUTH AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 27C.

ORGANISATION IN THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH. CONVECTION
DISPLACED EAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES ALONG THE SPCZ AND SOUTH OF
250HPA RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM IS STEERED SOUTHEAST WARDS BY NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. TDO6F LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SHEAR.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.


NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.