SIO: IGGY - Tropical Cyclone (09S)

[HURAKAN]

moving towards the coast

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 01/02/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 28.4S
Longitude: 108.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [150 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 02/0000: 29.6S 110.3E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 990
+24: 02/1200: 29.9S 112.6E: 090 [165]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 03/0000: 30.0S 114.6E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 995
+48: 03/1200: 29.8S 119.2E: 155 [285]: 025 [045]: 1001
+60: 04/0000: : : :
+72: 04/1200: : : :
REMARKS:
Position determined from animated VIS imagery and recent microwave passes. The
system has retained good organisation of the cloud field but cloud top
temperatures are noticeably warmer than yesterday. Wraps of about 0.5 were
obtained on VIS imagery over the last few VIS images. EIR imagery using an eye
pattern yielded a DT of 3.5, using an OW eye with a -0.5 adjustment for an
elongated eye. ADT is steadily decreasing and is at 39 knot 1 minute mean wind
at 1200UTC. CIMSS AMSU is higher at 62 knot 1 minute mean wind at 0900UTC but
this may be an overestimate due to shear. FT is set at 3.0 if averaged over
several hours and the 10 minute wind is 45 knots. It is possible Iggy may
maintain 45 knots through the night at the diurnally favourable time of 1800
UTC. After this Iggy should weaken rapidly.

Shear has increased to 10 knots from the NNW and the upper cloud is beginning to
shift southeastwards away from the LLCC. Shear will increase over the next 24
hours as the system interacts with mid-latitude westerlies. Although waters off
the west coast are significantly warmer than usual they are only 22 to 24
degrees under the forecast path of Iggy. Waters close to the coast are warmer
than off the coast but by the time the system reaches these waters the system
will be experiencing strong shear. All model guidance is consistent with a
weakening trend through the next 24 hours.

Models show good agreement on the track with the majority taking the remnant
system towards the west coast on Thursday. There is only a low probability that
gales could be maintained through to landfall. It is more likely the upper
remnants of the system will interact with the mid-latitude trough and which may
contribute to gusty fire weather conditions, strong winds along the west coast,
thunderstorms and rainfall in parts of the SWLD. Depending on the speed of
movement over the next 24 hours rainfall in southern parts of the SWLD may be
enhanced during Thursday afternoon/evening, however most models indicate the
heaviest rainfall will occur off the coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Chickenzilla]

It is unusual that BoM has it as Category 1 per their scale,but JTWC has it as 60 kt strong tropical storm.I agree better with JTWC's intensity.
Convection is organized around an eye

[HURAKAN]

looking a lot less organized as it moves towards SW Australia