SIO: Invest 98S

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Sunday 22 January 2012

Valid until the end of Wednesday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A
Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located off the north Arnhem coast. The low is
expected to move slowly west or southwest during the next few days and may enter
the Timor Sea.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Monday: Low.
Tuesday: Moderate.
Wednesday: Moderate.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor [northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E].

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone



DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
119.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 119.8E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES POORLY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221219Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE BROAD
LLCC. A 221349Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT, EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS,
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 23 January 2012

Valid until the end of Thursday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
The monsoon trough is becoming more active over the Timor and Arafura Seas. A
Tropical Low, 1002 hPa, is located near 11S 134E about 120 km north of
Maningrida at 9:30am CST on 23 January. The low is expected to move slowly west
to southwest and gradually deepen close to the coast during the next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Tuesday: Low.
Wednesday: Moderate.
Thursday: Moderate.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%.

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Ocean area south of 9S, between
125E and 142E, including the Gulf of Carpentaria, but excluding the area around
Timor [northwest of 11S 125E, 11S 128E, 9S 128E].

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough lies between 12S 90E and 14S 125E. The trough is
expected to intensify over the next couple of days and by Wednesday it is likely
to be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south of the
Indonesian archipelago, including Christmas Island.

One or two significant lows are likely to develop in the monsoon trough between
longitudes 100E and 115E and a tropical cyclone may form as early as Wednesday.
At this time it is not possible to say whether coastal communities will be
directly affected, but there is an elevated risk of a cyclone impact later in
the week.

People in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to keep up to date
with weather forecasts.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High

[HURAKAN]

Unnamed 98S T1.5/1.5 23/2332Z Southeast Indian



Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough lies between 12S 90E to 16S 114E to 16S 125E. The
trough is expected to intensify over the next couple of days and by Wednesday it
is likely to be producing gale force northwesterly winds over areas to the south
of the Indonesian archipelago, including Christmas Island.

A low has formed in the monsoon trough near 16S 114E moving west southwest at
around 11 knots. It may develop into a tropical cyclone late Wednesday evening
or more likely on Thursday. The system is expected to continue to intensify and
begin to move south on Friday. Gales associated with the system are not expected
to affect the coast on Wednesday or Thursday, but there is a risk that coastal
communities near the Northwest Cape may be affected on Friday.

People in the Gascoyne, Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to keep up to date
with weather forecasts.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in the Western Region:
Wednesday :Moderate
Thursday :High
Friday :High

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
131.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 131.0E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A MASSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION COVERING THE
MAJORITY OF THE TIMOR SEA; HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS JUST NORTH OF
DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. WEATHER OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY (DARWIN AND
CAPE DON) INDICATE WINDS OF 05-10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BUT
PRESSURE REPORTS INDICATE 1000 MB. A 232109Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
SOME BANDING WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VWS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE AREA IS FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTXS22 PGTW 250230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241051Z JAN 12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 241100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 205 NM RADIUS OF 13.8S 130.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 250130Z INDI-
CATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 130.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
131.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVERLAND.
RECENT 512KM COMPOSITE RADAR ANIMATION FROM WYNDHAM SHOWS A LARGE
CYCLONICALLY TURNING RAINBAND NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH THINNER RETURN
FLOW RAINBANDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM DARWIN INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25-30 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DOUGLAS RIVER (EAST OF THE LLCC)
SHOW WINDS FROM 05-10 KNOTS AND WINDS FROM WADEYE (CLOSEST TO THE
LLCC) INDICATE 10-15 KNOTS. AVERAGE PRESSURES FROM ALL OF THESE
STATIONS INDICATE 996 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE LLCC RESIDES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC
SHOULD BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
THE LLCC HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AND IS APPROXIMATELY 15NM FROM
EMERGING OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF WHERE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY WARM AT 30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS. IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH SUFFICIENTLY TO
PUSH THE LLCC BACK OVERLAND AND IN THAT TIME THE LLCC COULD FEED OFF
THE WARM OCEAN WATERS AND BRIEFLY MEET WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. BASED ON
THE PROXIMITY TO WATER, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND PROPENSITY FOR
CIRCULATIONS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260230Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 111.9E.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

remains interacting with land

[HURAKAN]

this system has tracked southeastward over the Northern Territory

[HURAKAN]

Great satellite image of this system

[HURAKAN]

The pressure at Borroloola dropped to 993 mb as the system passed by

[HURAKAN]

very impressive system

[Chickenzilla]

Strange.Why is 98S that well organised after being 2 days inland?

[HURAKAN]

Strange.Why is 98S that well organised after being 2 days inland?

Australia's "landcanes" are famous for this but this system has been moving along the coast, although still inland, of the Gulf of Carpentaria. That may have helped but can't tell you for sure why. Maybe it's feeding from the latent heat, not sure.