SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/0817 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 945HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5S 169.3E AT 080600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENING IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES
TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONE
IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN B SURROUND YIELDING
T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS. DT=6.0. MET AND PT AGREE.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE JASMINE SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 21.9S 170.6E MOV SE AT 09 KT WITH 95 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 23.3S 171.4E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 85 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 24.6S 172.1E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 70
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 081400 UTC.

[Chacor]

Must've been a temporary weakening, 100 knots 1-minute is impressive.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/1403 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 945HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1S
169.9E AT 081200 UTC.
POSITION GOOD BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 100 KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH THE IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
EYE STILL WELL DEFINED IN IR IMAGERY. SLIGHT WARMING OF TOPS PAST 3
HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A WEAK
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN LG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.5, PT=6.0 AND
MET=6.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 29
DEGRESS CELCIUS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ON THE PROJECTED PATH.

THE CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 22.5S 171.0E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 90 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 23.8S 172.0E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 25.1S 173.1E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 26.0S 174.8E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 082000 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (10P) between Vanuatu and New Caledonia

[JTE50]

Geoff Mackley and Brad Ambrose from NZ made it to the area (not certain which island they are on) to document the storm. His website should have an update soon http://www.rambocam.com/

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look very impressive in microwave

[P.K.]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 08/1944 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 952HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7S
170.7E AT 081800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMSS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 90 KNOTS.
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD WITH THE IR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
SYSTEM BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.
EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. THE SYSTEM LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF 250HPA RIDGE AXIS AND EAST OF UPPER TROUGH IN A WEAK
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON LG EYE IN B SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.0, PT=5.5 AND
MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28
DEGRESS CELCIUS AND IS DECREASING ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH. THE
CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 23.1S 171.4E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 24.5S 172.1E MOV SE AT 08 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 25.6S 173.3E MOV SE AT 08 KT
WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE



THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090200 UTC OR EARLIER.

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 110 kt (1-min) to me.

[HURAKAN]

weakening

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/0226 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5S
170.9E AT 090000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMSS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.

WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
AND
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE SYSTEM
LIES TO THE SOUTH OF 250HPA RIDGE AXIS AND EAST OF UPPER TROUGH IN A
WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN LG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.0, PT=5.5 AND
MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 28
DEGRESS CELCIUS AND IS DECREASING ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH. THE
CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 23.9S 171.7E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE




THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Chickenzilla]

Convection is weakening

Eyewall is still good

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/0748 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 955HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2S
171.1E AT 090600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMSS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 85 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER PAST
24 HOURS. OUTFLOW STILL REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN
UPPER TROUGH IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN LG
SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.0, PT=5.5 AND MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T5.0/5.0/W1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 26 DEGRESS CELCIUS AND IS DECREASING
ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH. MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST
MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 24.5S 171.9E MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 75
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.




THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 091400 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

weakening

[Chacor]

Absolutely tiny system... 70 kt now.

WTPS12 NFFN 091200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/1356 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 965HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8S
171.3E AT 091200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 70 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE
IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE,
ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 110 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 75 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24
HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. EYE DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGERY. CLOUD
TOPS WARMING RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH
IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM
BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN MG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=4.5,
PT=4.5 AND MET=4.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T4.5/4.5/W1.5/24HRS. SST
AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS AND IS DECREASING ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 24.9S 172.1E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 25.8S 173.3E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 26.1S 175.1E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 55
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 25.9S 177.1E MOV ESE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL JASMINE
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 092000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 09/1958 UTC 2012 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 961HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6S
171.6E AT 091800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
08 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 80 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,

OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE,

AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. EYE PARTIALLY
CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM LIES TO
THE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING STEERED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN LG SURROUND, YIELDING DT=5.0, PT=5.0 AND
MET=5.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 26
DEGREES CELCIUS AND IS DECREASING ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THAN SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 25.6S 172.5E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 26.2S 173.9E MOV SE AT 07 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE.

[Chacor]

One of the rare systems to survive into Wellington's area as a severe TC.

[Chacor]

WHNZ41 NZKL 100016
HURRICANE WARNING 194
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE 965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2 SOUTH
172.1 EAST AT 100000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 25.2S 172.1E AT 100000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 6 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.0S 173.2E AT 101200 UTC
AND NEAR 26.2S 174.7E AT 110000 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 193.

[Chacor]

Still 70 kt.

WHNZ41 NZKL 100636
HURRICANE WARNING 198
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE 965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8 SOUTH
172.8 EAST AT 100600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 25.8S 172.8E AT 100600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 8 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.2S 174.1E AT 101800 UTC
AND NEAR 26.2S 175.4E AT 110600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 194.

[HURAKAN]

almost annular