SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)

[P.K.]

HURRICANE WARNING 202
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone JASMINE [965hPa] centre was located near 26.1 South 173.5 East at 101200 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 26.1S 173.5E at 101200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 8 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 nautical miles of centre in the western quadrant and within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest.

Forecast position near 26.3S 175.0E at 110000 UTC
and near 26.3S 177.0E at 111200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 198.

Issued at 1:24am Saturday 11 Feb 2012

[CrazyC83]

Looks to be about 90 kt (1-min) right now.

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[Chacor]

WHNZ41 NZKL 101813
HURRICANE WARNING 206
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE 965HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3 SOUTH
174.5 EAST AT 101800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.3S 174.5E AT 101800 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EAST 7 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 26.3S 176.1E AT 110600 UTC
AND NEAR 25.8S 178.0E AT 111800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 202.

[Chacor]

Still hanging on as a severe TC (65+ kt):

WHNZ41 NZKL 110723
HURRICANE WARNING 215 CCA
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE 970HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2 SOUTH
176.6 EAST AT 110600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.2S 176.6E AT 110600 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EAST 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 55
KNOTS BY 111800 UTC AND THEN EASING TO 50 KNOTS BY 120600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 48 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 25.6S 178.6E AT 111800 UTC
AND NEAR 24.3S 179.2W AT 120600 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 212.

[HURAKAN]

weakening fast

[Chacor]

WTNZ41 NZKL 111821
STORM WARNING 224
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE 985HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8 SOUTH
178.4 EAST AT 111800 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.8S 178.4E AT 111800 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 8 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 45
KNOTS BY 120600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.4S 179.2W AT 120600 UTC
AND NEAR 23.3S 177.7W AT 121800 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 219.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.9S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.9S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.2S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.4S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.6S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.7S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.3S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.3S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.5S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 179.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED FROM THE MAIN
CONVECTION THAT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF INCREASING (10-20 KNOT) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A HYPER-EXTENDED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE
INTO THE COL ZONE. DUE TO THE HEIGHTENED VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO A MINIMUM OF 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER, TOWARD THE EXTENDED TAUS, AS THE
CYCLONE TRACKS EQUATORWARD INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS ANTICIPATED TO
REGAIN INTENSITY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT IN
THE TIGHTNESS OF RECURVATURE. WBAR IS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN
EASTWARD STRAIGHT RUNNER SCENARIO. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[Chacor]

WTNZ41 NZKL 120019
GALE WARNING 228
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE 987HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5 SOUTH
179.2 EAST AT 120000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 25.5S 179.2E AT 120000 UTC.
CYCLONE IS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 7 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EASING TO 35
KNOTS BETWEEN 121200 UTC AND 130000 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.7S 179.6W AT 121200 UTC
AND NEAR 23.9S 178.1W AT 130000 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 224.

[P.K.]

Back in Nadi's AOR. I don't recall this happening before in the time I've been tracking.

GALE WARNING 231
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone JASMINE [987hPa] centre was located near 24.9 South 179.5 West at 120600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 24.9S 179.5W at 120600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving eastnortheast 15 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots between 121800 UTC and 130600 UTC.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the western quadrant and within 100 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to southwest.

Forecast position near 23.5S 177.5W at 121800 UTC
and near 22.5S 176.3W at 130600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 228.

Issued at 7:54pm Sunday 12 Feb 2012

[Chacor]

From Nadi:

WTPS12 NFFN 120600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0803 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9S 179.5W
AT 120600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY. CYCLONE
MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM
NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 6 HOURS. ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE EASTERN FLANK. THE SYSTEM
LIES TO THE SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED EAST-NORTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER
MEAN WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP,
YIELDING DT=3.0, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EAST-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 23.9S 177.8W MOV ENE AT 08 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 23.2S 176.8W MOV ENE AT 08 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 22.2S 176.5E MOV NE AT 06 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 21.6S 176.6E MOV N AT 04 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AT OR AROUND 121400 UTC.

[Macrocane]

WTPS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 24.5S 179.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5S 179.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 23.5S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.5S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.7S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.0S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.7S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.8S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 25.6S 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 179.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
RE-BUILDING OVER WHAT WAS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE 120538Z SSMIS 91 GHZ AND 37 GHZ IMAGES SHOW THAT
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH A LACK OF
LOW-LEVEL BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE 120532Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS
UNDER MODERATE (20 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TC JASMINE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EQUATORWARD TOWARDS A COL REGION BETWEEN A STR TO THE WEST AND EAST.
TC 10P SHOULD CONTINUE THE EQUATORWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AND MINIMALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. BY TAU 72 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE INFLUENCED BY THE BUILDING
STR FROM THE EAST AS THE STR TO THE WEST ERODES. THIS SHOULD PUSH
THE SYSTEM BACK POLEWARD AS IT STEERS UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY.
BY TAU 96, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH AND TC
10P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC JASMINE SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT IN
THE TIGHTNESS OF RECURVATURE. WBAR IS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN
EASTWARD STRAIGHT RUNNER SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN-LINE
WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT TILL TAU 24. AFTER WHICH, THE FORECAST
TRACK LAYS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS DURING TAUS 36-48.
FINALLY, THE FORECAST TRACK DURING TAUS 96-120 LIES IN BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND CONSENSUS. FORECAST INTENSITY IS HIGHER THAN THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE TO IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

[Chacor]

WTPS12 NFFN 121200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 12/1428 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3S 178.5W
AT 121200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND IS WEAKENING. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN
120 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES
IN EAST SEMICIRCLE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONE JASMINE LIES TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THE SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROUGH
TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EASTWARD STEERING OVER THE SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SHEAR. SST AROUND 26
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP, THUS YIELDING
DT=3.0, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0. FT BASED ON MET, THUS
T3.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 23.4S 177.6W MOV NE AT 6 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 22.5S 177.1W MOV NNE AT 6 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 21.8S 177.1W MOV NNE AT 5 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 122000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[Chacor]

From 1800:

WTPS11 NFFN 121800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 12/2001 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 177.2W
AT 121800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN PAST 6 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE LIES
TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE. GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE SYSTEM IS STEERED
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY A SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AN
AREA OF LOW SHEAR. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.4 WRAP, YIELDING DT=2.5, PT=2.5 AND MET=3.0. FT BASED ON
MET, THUS T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A INITIAL NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AND
RECURVING IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 22.6S 176.5W MOV NE AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 21.8S 176.3W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 21.3S 177.1W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 21.3S 176.6W MOV N AT 04 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 130230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[Chacor]

Gale warning and TC alert issued for Tonga:

WWTO40 NFFN 130000

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Tonga ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
JASMINE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0218 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR HAAPAI GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR VAVA'U GROUP.



TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE [991HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
22 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 WEST OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
NUKU'ALOFA OR ABOUT 195 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOMUKA AT 130000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR. JASMINE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO ABOUT 35
KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80
MILES OF THE CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK TC JASMINE IS EXPECTED TO LIE WITHIN 90 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF NUKUA'LOFA OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOMUKA AT 131200 UTC.

FOR TONGATAPU GROUP:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN,
HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA
FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY
SWELLS.

FOR HA'APAI GROUP:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. PERIODS OF
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH
SEAS.MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR VAVA'U GROUP:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.
OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS LIKELY. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS.
MODERATE SWELLS.



THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 130530 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0744 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 176.7W
AT 130600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.CLOUD TOPS WARMING
PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE
LAST 24 HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE LIES TO THE EAST OF 250HPA
TROUGH AND SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. GOOD
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CIMMS
ANALYSIS INDICATE SYSTEM IS STEERED NORTHEASTWARD BY A SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON APPROXIMATELY 0.40 WRAP,
YIELDING DT=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, MET AND PT AGREE. CI=3.0 DUE TO CI
RULES, THUS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A INITIAL NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AND
RECURVING IT SOUTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 21.2S 176.2W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 20.7S 176.1W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 20.5S 176.5W MOV NNW AT 02 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 21.1S 176.9W MOV WSW AT 02 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 131400 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

not much left

[Chacor]

WTPS12 NFFN 131200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/1422 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 176.2W
AT 131200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS ALSO REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR THE LLCC FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH CENTER IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. NOT MUCH ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING
DT=2.0, PT=2.0 AND MET=2.0. FT BASED ON DT, CI WAS HELD AT 3.0, 1.0
HIGHER THAN FT. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SYSTEM BEING A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
72 HOURS AND WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 21.1S 176.0W MOV N AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 20.7S 176.3W MOV NNW AT 03 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 20.8S 176.9W MOV WNW AT 03 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.4S 177.4W MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 132000 UTC OR EARLIER.