Tonga receiving some rains and gusts from this system
SPO: JASMINE - Tropical Cyclone (10P)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
WTPS12 NFFN 131800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2001 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 176.3W
AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH CENTER IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MUCH
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING IS MINIMAL. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.0,
PT=2.0 AND MET=2.5, CI WAS HELD AT 3.0, 1.0 HIGHER THAN FT. FT BASED
ON DT, THUS T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SYSTEM BEING A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
72 HOURS AND WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 21.0S 176.2W MOV N AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 20.8S 176.7W MOV NNW AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 21.1S 177.1W MOV NNW AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.8S 177.4W MOV WSW AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140200 UTC OR EARLIER.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2001 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4S 176.3W
AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN PAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER TROUGH CENTER IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. MUCH
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING IS MINIMAL. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.0,
PT=2.0 AND MET=2.5, CI WAS HELD AT 3.0, 1.0 HIGHER THAN FT. FT BASED
ON DT, THUS T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SYSTEM BEING A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
72 HOURS AND WITH A NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 21.0S 176.2W MOV N AT 04 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 20.8S 176.7W MOV NNW AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 21.1S 177.1W MOV NNW AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.8S 177.4W MOV WSW AT 02 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 140200 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
WTPS12 NFFN 140000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0144 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 993HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.1S 176.4W AT 140000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN PAST 6 HOURS. CIMMS ANALYSIS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IN LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW.SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5, PT=2.5 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED
ON MET, THUS T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS INITIALLY AGREE ON THE NORTHWEST TRACK BEFORE
RECURVING IT SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 20.8S 176.7W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 21.0S 177.3W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.6S 177.9W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 22.5S 178.1W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 140800 UTC
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0144 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 993HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.1S 176.4W AT 140000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 05 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN PAST 6 HOURS. CIMMS ANALYSIS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND IN LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BY SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW.SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4
WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5, PT=2.5 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED
ON MET, THUS T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS INITIALLY AGREE ON THE NORTHWEST TRACK BEFORE
RECURVING IT SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 20.8S 176.7W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 21.0S 177.3W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.6S 177.9W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 22.5S 178.1W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 140800 UTC
0 likes
Has strengthened to 45 knots.
WTPS12 NFFN 140600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0757 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 176.5W
AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6
HOURS. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST. SST AROUND 27-28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON APPROXIMATLY 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL,
YIELDING DT=3.0, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TC JASMINE NORTHWEST THEN RECURVE IT SOUTH
AFTER 12 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 20.9S 177.1W MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 21.4S 177.8W MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 22.3S 178.1W MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 23.3S 178.3W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 141400 UTC
WTPS12 NFFN 140600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B22 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0757 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 176.5W
AT 140600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 45
KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN PAST 24 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6
HOURS. CIMMS ANALYSIS INDICATE THE SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST. SST AROUND 27-28 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON APPROXIMATLY 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL,
YIELDING DT=3.0, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TC JASMINE NORTHWEST THEN RECURVE IT SOUTH
AFTER 12 HOURS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141800 UTC 20.9S 177.1W MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150600 UTC 21.4S 177.8W MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 22.3S 178.1W MOV SW AT 04 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 23.3S 178.3W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 141400 UTC
0 likes
Warning for Tonga:
WWTO40 NFFN 140900
Special Weather Bulletin Number NINETEEN for Tonga ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE JASMINE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1130 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI
GROUP.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE [987HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21 DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES WEST OF
NUKU'ALOFA OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOMUKA AT 141000 UTC.
POSITION POOR. JASMINE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO ABOUT 45
KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
ON THIS TRACK TC JASMINE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 130 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKUA'LOFA OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOMUKA
AT 151000 UTC.
FOR TONGATAPU GROUP:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREA. HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.
FOR VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP:
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. WINDS EASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. OCCASIONAL
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREA. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SWELLS.
FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES.
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 141430 UTC.
WWTO40 NFFN 140900
Special Weather Bulletin Number NINETEEN for Tonga ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE JASMINE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1130 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI
GROUP.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE [987HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21 DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 7 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES WEST OF
NUKU'ALOFA OR ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOMUKA AT 141000 UTC.
POSITION POOR. JASMINE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 03 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED TO ABOUT 45
KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 80
MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND WITHIN 50 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
ON THIS TRACK TC JASMINE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 130 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKUA'LOFA OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOMUKA
AT 151000 UTC.
FOR TONGATAPU GROUP:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREA. HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.
FOR VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP:
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. WINDS EASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM LATER TOMORROW. OCCASIONAL
RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREA. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO
HEAVY SWELLS.
FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES.
OCCASIONAL RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.
THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 141430 UTC.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0135 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.3S 176.5W AT 150000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION PAST 12 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. ASSOCIATED
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.0, PT=2.0
AND MET=2.0, FT BASED ON DT. CI IS BASED ON CONTRAINTS OF NOT BEING
MORE THAN 1.O T-NUMBER HIGHER THAN DT, THUS T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH NO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 22.1S 177.1W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 23.0S 177.6W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 24.1S 177.5W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 25.0S 177.2W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 150800 UTC
Feb 15/0135 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
21.3S 176.5W AT 150000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION PAST 12 HOURS.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. ASSOCIATED
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS MINIMAL. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.0, PT=2.0
AND MET=2.0, FT BASED ON DT. CI IS BASED ON CONTRAINTS OF NOT BEING
MORE THAN 1.O T-NUMBER HIGHER THAN DT, THUS T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH NO FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 22.1S 177.1W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 23.0S 177.6W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 24.1S 177.5W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 25.0S 177.2W MOV NNE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 150800 UTC
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B26 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0757 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 177.1W
AT 150600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS BY 160600UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC WAS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED FEW HOURS AGO BUT IS NOW UNDER DENSE OVERCAST.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
LOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CDO
PATTERN WITH IRREGULAR EDGE APPROXIMATELY 90 NAUTICAL MILES DIAMETER,
YIELDING DT=3.0, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON DT. HOWEVER, DUE TO
FT CONSTRAINTS AND PAST 6 HOUR FT BEING 2.0, CURRENT FT WILL BE 2.5,
THUS T2.5/3.0/S1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 22.2S 177.7W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 23.2S 177.9W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 24.2S 177.7W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.0S 177.2W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 151400 UTC
Feb 15/0757 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3S 177.1W
AT 150600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS DECREASING TO 35 KNOTS BY 160600UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN PAST 24 HOURS. LLCC WAS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED FEW HOURS AGO BUT IS NOW UNDER DENSE OVERCAST.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
LOW. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CDO
PATTERN WITH IRREGULAR EDGE APPROXIMATELY 90 NAUTICAL MILES DIAMETER,
YIELDING DT=3.0, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON DT. HOWEVER, DUE TO
FT CONSTRAINTS AND PAST 6 HOUR FT BEING 2.0, CURRENT FT WILL BE 2.5,
THUS T2.5/3.0/S1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 22.2S 177.7W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 23.2S 177.9W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 24.2S 177.7W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.0S 177.2W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 151400 UTC
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/1401 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 177.2W
AT 151200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND
GRADUALLY EASING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE, SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARDS A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND
26 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON MET. THUS
T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 22.4S 177.4W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 23.5S 177.3W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 152000 UTC
Feb 15/1401 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 177.2W
AT 151200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS AND
GRADUALLY EASING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE, SYSTEM
IS MOVING TOWARDS A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH. SST AROUND
26 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON MET. THUS
T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 22.4S 177.4W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 23.5S 177.3W MOV S AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 152000 UTC
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B28 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/1955 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 177.3W
AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS AND EASING TO 35 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE, SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON MET.
THUS T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 22.9S 177.4W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 24.0S 177.1W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.0S 176.4W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 26.0S 175.4W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC OR EARLIER.
Feb 15/1955 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9S 177.3W
AT 151800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS AND EASING TO 35 KNOTS BY 160600 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY
INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE, SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.5 WRAP ON
LOG10 SPIRAL, YIELDING DT=2.5, PT=3.0 AND MET=3.0, FT BASED ON MET.
THUS T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 22.9S 177.4W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 24.0S 177.1W MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.0S 176.4W MOV SSE AT 05 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 26.0S 175.4W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160200 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 22.7S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.8S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.0S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 177.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JASMINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED ITS
RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES AS CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISPLACED
SOUTHEASTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
CYCLONE HAS STRAYED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION DEEPER INTO THE
WESTERLIES, THE VWS WILL FURTHER INCREASE, WHICH WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE TC 10P WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS
12 FEET.//
NNNN
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B29 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 16/0137 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 176.5W
AT 160000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS AND GRADUALLY EASING TO 30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND PAST THREE HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MODERATE. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR AND
COOLER SST'S. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN LESS 0.75
DEGREES, YIELDS A DT OF 3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 24.0S 176.1W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 25.0S 175.5W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 26.0S 174.5W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 26.6S 173.3W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160800 UTC OR EARLIER.
Feb 16/0137 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 176.5W
AT 160000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 04 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS AND GRADUALLY EASING TO 30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS SAME IN PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED
SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND PAST THREE HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE
SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL
SHEAR IS MODERATE. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR AND
COOLER SST'S. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN LESS 0.75
DEGREES, YIELDS A DT OF 3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.
THE CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT
WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
FORECASTS:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 24.0S 176.1W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 25.0S 175.5W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 26.0S 174.5W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 26.6S 173.3W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160800 UTC OR EARLIER.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B30 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 16/0738 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 176.6W
AT 160600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPACED TO THE EAST OF
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY INTO AN
AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILE FROM EDGE OF
DEEP CONVECTION, YIELDS DT=2.0, PT=2.5 AND MET=2.0, FT BASED ON DT
BUT DUE TO FT CONSTRAINT FT WOULD BE 2.5 AS PAST 6 HOUR FT WAS 3.0.
THUS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 24.6S 176.0W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.6S 175.2W MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 161400 UTC.
Feb 16/0738 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 176.6W
AT 160600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
CYCLONE WEAKENING.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPACED TO THE EAST OF
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH. SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN NORTHWESTERLY INTO AN
AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILE FROM EDGE OF
DEEP CONVECTION, YIELDS DT=2.0, PT=2.5 AND MET=2.0, FT BASED ON DT
BUT DUE TO FT CONSTRAINT FT WOULD BE 2.5 AS PAST 6 HOUR FT WAS 3.0.
THUS T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 24.6S 176.0W MOV SSE AT 06 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 25.6S 175.2W MOV SE AT 06 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON JASMINE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 161400 UTC.
0 likes
-
HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B31 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 16/1339 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 175.6W
AT 161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 TO 30
KNOTS.
LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPACED TO THE FAR EAST OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE TO
HIGH. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN
NORTHWESTERLY INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 85
NAUTICAL MILE FROM EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, YIELDS DT=2.0, PT=2.0 AND
MET=2.0, FT BASED ON MET, THUS T2.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH NO
CYCLONE STRENGTH BY 161200 UTC.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC JASMINE.
Feb 16/1339 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2S 175.6W
AT 161200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 TO 30
KNOTS.
LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPACED TO THE FAR EAST OF LLCC.
SYSTEM LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM. VERTICAL SHEAR IS MODERATE TO
HIGH. SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DEEP LAYER MEAN
NORTHWESTERLY INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC ABOUT 85
NAUTICAL MILE FROM EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, YIELDS DT=2.0, PT=2.0 AND
MET=2.0, FT BASED ON MET, THUS T2.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS.
MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH NO
CYCLONE STRENGTH BY 161200 UTC.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC JASMINE.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 106 guests