ATL: INVEST 90L

[floridasun78]

ok i not supprise with no front move deep south this few weeks plus carribbean not got any cold front in weeks to cool it down

[jinftl]

The weather pattern here in South Florida has almost felt like a late autumn pattern where we can't get a real cold front to make a clean sweep so we end up instead with unsettled weather and warm, muggy conditions. Stalled fronts can be the genesis of October/November storms in the NW Caribbean so it seems somewhat appropriate to look in that direction now. Granted it is February and not October...so this is not going to amount to anything more than fodder for the board...

The groundhog did say 6 more weeks of winter, not 6 weeks to hurricane season, right?

A code Orange (medium development chance) on Feb 5....wow

THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ok i not supprise with no front move deep south this few weeks plus carribbean not got any cold front in weeks to cool it down

[SFLcane]

No surprise looks like its been shredded as wxman57 stated it looked like it had a chance earlier today. Nice blob of light to moderate rain with some embeded t-storms heading for sfl.

[AdamFirst]

Looking forward to the moisture from this. Get the grasses green again.

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 90L is weaker than earlier. Now north of western tip of Cuba with winds of 25mph and heavy rain. Additional 1-2" of rain in Key West possible. It will move toward South Florida and cross the southern tip of the state by Monday evening. Rain chances are near 100% for most of South Florida and the Keys, and a few thunderstorms are possible. The synoptic picture around 90L at this hour is below. Cold front moving into the Gulf of Mexico will keep most of the moisture confined to south Florida tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON FEB 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS INTERACTING WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN ORGANIZED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE DAY TODAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT23 KNHC...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[wxman57]

Ripped apart by shear overnight. Just a little rain for the southern tip of the peninsula over the next 6-8 hrs.

[Frank2]

It's almost dissipated now, but we are still getting a good soaking here in Fort Lauderdale...

P.S. If you look at the season hurricane activity charts, there is always a small maximum in early February, mostly due to activity in the Western Caribbean Sea...

P.P.S. I'd have to agree with wxman57 - it was possibly a TD yesterday (or Saturday, in my opinion)...

[CrazyC83]

Yeah was it ever a TS though? It likely won't get looked at if only a TD since those do not go into HURDAT. I agree yesterday it was a tropical cyclone. But were winds 35 kt?

Still to get such in February is more of a novelty than anything...

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al902012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201202061529
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012020512, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902012
AL, 90, 2012020412, , BEST, 0, 200N, 860W, 25, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 130, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2012020418, , BEST, 0, 204N, 860W, 25, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 120, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2012020500, , BEST, 0, 208N, 860W, 25, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2012020506, , BEST, 0, 212N, 860W, 25, 1014, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2012020512, , BEST, 0, 215N, 859W, 25, 1013, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2012020518, , BEST, 0, 218N, 857W, 25, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2012020600, , BEST, 0, 222N, 845W, 25, 1011, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 170, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 90, 2012020606, , BEST, 0, 225N, 829W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[RL3AO]

Well that was fun.

See you around August 1st 90L.

[somethingfunny]

Heh, I found this reply from the National Weather Service to the Cubans' warning regarding the tropical storm in February 1952:



Of course as we all know, there actually was a tropical storm...

[cycloneye]

It was very interesting to watch this unfold on Super-Sunday.The question becomes, if is an indication of how the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be,or it wont matter at all.

[Gustywind]

It was very interesting to watch this unfold on Super-Sunday.The question becomes, if is an indication of how the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season may be,or it wont matter at all.

That is an excellent question Cycloneye, as many of yours on this "marvelous" board! Time will tell, but how surprising it is for 90L .

[Sanibel]

2011 still had some kick to it. Counter-season cloud flow here today and rainy-season-looking clouds (but not quite).

[tolakram]

1952, the only time on record that anything formed in February, was an interesting season ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1952_Atlan ... ane_season

Very few storms but all achieved hurricane status.

[HURAKAN]

Nice satellite image of ex-90L

[fci]

Well that was fun.

See you around August 1st 90L.

Won't the next one be 91L?

[cycloneye]

Well that was fun.

See you around August 1st 90L.

Won't the next one be 91L?

I think what he meant was that there will be invests from 91L-99L before that date.