SPO: CYRIL - Tropical Cyclone (11P)

[HURAKAN]

WTPS21 PGTW 060930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.4S 178.8W TO 22.8S 169.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
060900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S
178.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1S
178.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 178.1W, APPROXIMATELY 255 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 060516Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS TCB AND A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. THE SYSTEM HAS
ORGANIZED QUICKLY SINCE CROSSING FIJI AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS AT NFFN
PEAKED AT ONLY 15 KNOTS, SLP VALUES AS LOW AS 995MB WERE OBSERVED.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE TAIL-END OF A SHEAR LINE AND MODEL
GUIDANCE IS POORLY INITIALIZED; HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070930Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/0920 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F [994HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 178.0W AT
060600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO NORTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND BENEATH A UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY A
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR.
SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND AND MAINTAIN A
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

THIS IS THE FIRST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 061400 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

06/1201 UTC 18.2S 176.1W T2.0/2.0 INVEST -- Southeast Pacific

30 knots

[Chacor]

Warning issued for Tonga:

WWTO40 NFFN 061200 CCA

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Tonga ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/1434 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR HAAPAI, VAVA'U AND
TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F CENTRE [994HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 DECIMAL
1 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 6 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
VAVA'U OR ABOUT 200 MILES NORTHWEST OF NUKUA'LOFA AT 061200 UTC.
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
TO 25 KNOTS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED UNDER THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVE
RAINBANDS SOME 60 TO 120 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. THE
DEPRESSION MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK THIS DEPRESSION MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER HAAPAI,
VAVA'U AND TONGATAPU GROUP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR HAAPAI,VAVA'U AND TONGATAPU GROUP:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. FLOODING INCLUDING
SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR REMAINDER OF TONGA:
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEAS
FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.

TONGA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS
BULLETIN.


THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AT 062030
UTC OR EARLIER.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 061200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/1356 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE [994] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 18.1S 176.6W
AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH TOPS COOLING. PRIMARY BANDS TRYING
TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. OUTFLOW GOOD FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AND TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MAINTAIN A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 062000 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060921Z FEB 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 175.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 20.6S 171.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.7S 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7S 161.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.3S 155.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 174.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST OF
NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 11P HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE RAPIDLY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL SYSTEM (ABOUT 120NM
RADIUS) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060516Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE
LLCC. A 061152Z PARTIAL OCEANSAT IMAGE PROVIDES FURTHER EVIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ORGANIZED QUICKLY AND SHOWS A STRONG, DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IR IMAGERY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30-
35 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. TC
11P IS TRACKING RAPIDLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW
BETWEEN A STRONG LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION POSITIONED EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THEREFORE, TC 11P IS
EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20-30 KNOTS SPEED OF
ADVANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO GFS,
GFDN, WBAR, UKMO AND ECMWF BUT IS IN EXCELLENT, TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS INCLUDING
INCREASING, STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WITH VALUES
DECREASING BELOW 25C NEAR 25S LATITUDE. TC 11P IS FORECAST TO
DISSPATE BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 060921Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 060930). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

FIJI should upgrade this system pretty soon

[P.K.]

RSMC Nadi has named this Cyril at 18Z.

[HURAKAN]

06/1732 UTC 18.7S 174.2W T2.0/2.0 11P -- Southeast Pacific

Dvorak is highly underestimating the intensity of this system

[P.K.]

Straight to 45kts on being named.

GALE WARNING 040 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 06/1851 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL CENTRE 987HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8
SOUTH 174.2 WEST AT 061800 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.8S 174.2W AT 061800 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 18 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 21.2S 170.4W AT 070600 UTC
AND NEAR 24.0S 166.0W AT 071800 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 037.

[Chacor]

WTPS11 NFFN 061800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 06/2016 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL 11F CENTRE 987HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8S
174.2W AT 061800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO TRAP AROUND THE LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES
TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE
AXIS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. SST AROUND 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070600 UTC 21.2S 170.4W MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071800 UTC 24.0S 166.0W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080600 UTC 26.3S 161.4W MOV ESE AT 24 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081800 UTC 27.7S 157.3W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYRIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
070200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 45 kt ... I think they're not looking at the same satellite images we are!

[HURAKAN]

06/2322 UTC 20.0S 172.3W T3.5/3.5 CYRIL -- Southeast Pacific

55 kt .. makes more sense!

[HurricaneBill]

The SPAC finally wakes up.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 07/0152 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE CYRIL CENTRE [985HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 171.9W
AT 070000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO TRAP AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES SOUTH OF 250 HPA RIDGE AXIS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY A NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INTO AN AREA OF
INCREASING SHEAR. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.9 WRAP YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD WITH DECREASING
INTENSIFICATION.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 22.2S 168.9W MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 24.8S 165.0W MOV SE AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON CYRIL WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
070800 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (CYRIL) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 172.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 172.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 26.7S 162.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 29.8S 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 171.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11P (CYRIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL POSITIONS WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 062355Z SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM LUPEPAU, A NEARBY ISLAND TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 11P IS 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF RAPIDLY INCREASING (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE VORTEX IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY OF A DEEPLY-ENTRENCHED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS FURTHER
INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE STR AXIS AND
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. TC CYRIL WILL
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TRIPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; HENCE, THIS TRACK FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
070000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JASMINE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Macrocane]

The SPAC finally wakes up.

Yeah, it has been a lazy season in that basin, no surprise as we're in La Niña though.

[Chickenzilla]

Cyril is still a well-organized cyclone