SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical

[Crostorm]

some images from Madagascar
http://www.madagascar-tribune.com/Sabot ... 17098.html
http://www.midi-madagasikara.mg/index.p ... ourd-bilan

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 151252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 (EX-GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.4 S / 41.4 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 40.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 40.5 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 25.0 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 39.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 38.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 39.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
LLCC IS NOW VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS ORGANISED INTO
BANDING PATTERN WITHIN A WIDE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, CONVECTION SEEMS
TO HAVE TROUBLE REBUILDING NEAR THE CENTRE.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHINTHE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND. IT MIGHT RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH AND GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW).
BEYOND TAU24, A NEW MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK BEYOND TAU36 IS THE RESULT OF THE OPPOSITE
EFFECTS OF THIS TWO CELLS
NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TRACK BETWEEN TAU36
AND TAU60. BEYOND, THEY ARE DISCREPANCIES. SOME NWP MODELS FORECAST A
WESTWARD TRACK, OR EVEN NORTHWESTWARD, TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST. OTHERS FORECAST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND EVEN A
EASTWARD RECURVE ON SATURDAY ACCORDING TO ECMWF NWP MODEL. PRESENT
RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO ECMWF MODEL. HOWEVER, ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHLY DISPERSED AT THIS TAU.
THIS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE PRODUCT BY INTENSITY FORECASTS
THAT ARE MORE OR LESS STRONG BY DIFFERENT MODELS AND SO A STEERING
FLOW DUE TO THE OPPOSITE EFFECTS OF THIS TWO CELLS, LOCATED AT MORE OR
LESS HIGH LEVELS (LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM
ACCORDING TO WESTWARD TRACKS). FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS IMPORTANT AT
TAU 60 AND BEYOND.
ON SUNDAY, LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS NOT EXCLUDED. BUT NOW, THAT IS
NOT THE RSMC OPTION FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

[HURAKAN]

latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 151922
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 40.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 39.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 38.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.3 S / 39.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 26.2 S / 41.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
CONVCETION HAS ORGANIZED IN A CURVED BAND FEATURE WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE BRAOD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MW PICTURE TRMM 15/1511Z (37GHZ) DEPICT A BRAOD BUT WELL DEFINED LOWLEVEL CIRCULATION.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTH SOUTH-WESTWARD WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND, IT IS FORECAST TO ADOPT A SLOW HOOK SHAPE
TRACK WESTWARD AND AFTER EASTWARD ON AND AFTER 48TAU.
SYSTEM SHOULD INDEED REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK AND OPPOSITE
STREERING FLOWS IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 48.
BEYOND TAU 48, A MID TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILT IN ITS NORTH-EAST
AND LEAD THE SYSTEM EASTWARD .
SYSTEM MIGHT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL INFLOW). INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF BETWEEN DAY 2 AND DAY 3/DAY 4
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
THE PRESENT RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO ECMWF MODEL.
HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST ARE ALSO
HIGHLY DISPERSED.
THIS IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE PRODUCT BY INTENSITY FORECASTS
THAT ARE MORE OR LESS STRONG BY DIFFERENT MODELS
ON SUNDAY, LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE IS NOT EXCLUDED. BUT NOW, THAT IS
NOT THE RSMC OPTION FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 015//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 24.4S 40.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 40.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.7S 40.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 24.8S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 24.8S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.7S 39.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 24.4S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 24.0S 37.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.3S 36.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 40.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST
OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION AS IT SLOWED ON ITS
FORWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN AN AREA
OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 12S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24
AND LINGER IN THE COL BEFORE A SECONDARY STR, CURRENTLY ANCHORED
OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AFRICA, EXTENDS EASTWARD AND ASSUMES STEERING
TOWARD THE LATER TAUS. THIS WILL CAUSE AN EVENTUAL WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD PROJECTION OF THE STORM MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VWS REMAINS LOW. BEYOND TAU 24,
IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS. THE MAJORITY OF THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE RESEMBLES THIS TRACK FORECAST. ON THE
OTHER HAND, GFS DEPICTS AN EASTWARD RETROGRADATION OF THE TRACK AND
ECMWF PREDICTS AN EARLY RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF BUT MUCH SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 161500Z AND 170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 160031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 40.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 24.6 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 40.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 40.1 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 39.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 40.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 44.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+
CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY ORGANIZED AROUND THE BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEEPENING OF THESYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. INDEED, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS
SUFFICIENT, LOW LEVEL FEEDING IS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND IS PROGRESSIVLEY
IMPROVING POLEWARD, UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BELOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND TWO GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ON SUNDAY AND AFTER, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
COMBINED EFFECT OF THE WEAKENING OF THE EQUATORWARD FEEDING
(APPROACHING OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR) AND
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
48 TO 60 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS IN MIDTROPOSPHERE (A RIDGE IN ITS WEST AND ANOTHER ONE IN ITS EAST).
BEYOND, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD, UNDER THE PROBABLE INFLUENCE
IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE OF THE WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION,
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CELL OVER SOUTH
AFRICA AND THE SHIFTING EASTWARD OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CELL LOCATED
OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN.
MOST OF THE MEMBERS OF THE LAST ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE ECMWF
(15/1200Z RUN) ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVEMENT EASTWARD IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
ACTUAL FORECAST OF THE RSMC-REUNION IS CLOSE THE ECMWF ONE
(DETERMINISTIC MODEL).

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 160650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 41.1 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 25.0 S / 41.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 25.4 S / 41.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 26.1 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 42.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 43.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 46.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5-
CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ON A 0.8° LOG 10 CURVED BAND PATTERN DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR THE DEEPENING OF THE
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. INDEED, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ISSUFFICIENT, LOW LEVEL FEEDING IS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND IS PROGRESSIVLEY
IMPROVING POLEWARD, UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK BELOW THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS AND TWO GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNELS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ON SUNDAY AND AFTER, SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY GENERALLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT
48 TO 60 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS IN MIDTROPOSPHERE (A RIDGE IN ITS WEST AND ANOTHER ONE IN ITS EAST).
BEYOND, ALTGHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE, SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK EASTWARDS, UNDER THE PROBABLE
INFLUENCE IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE THAT REBUILT NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
MOST OF THE MEMBERS OF THE LAST ENSEMBLE FORECAST OF THE ECMWF
(15/1200Z RUN) ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVEMENT EASTWARD IN
THE DIRECTION OF THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR AND ONLY A FEW MEMBERS
(LESS THAN 5 AMONGST THE 51) SHOW A WESTWARDS MOTION TOWARDS THE
MOZAMBIC COASTS.
LATEST ECMWF OUTPUTS, NOT COMPLETELY INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST, SHOW
AN EVEN FASTER EASTWARDS RECURVING TRACK ...

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 161311
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 31/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 170 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 41.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 42.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 42.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 26.3 S / 44.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 45.7 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 24.3 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-
THE CURVED BAND PATTERN OF THIS MORNING HAS DETRIORATED DURING THE
LAST 6 HOURS ...
MOREOVER, ASCAT DATA OF THIS MORNING (0606Z) SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS ... GIOVANNA IS LOCATED WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION BETWEEN 2 SUB
HIGHS LOCATED OVER AUSTRAL AFRICA AND SOUTH OF LA REUNION.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT EVEN AT SHORT TERM
(TOMORROW !!) WITH 2 POSSIBLES TRACKS: TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND A
HEADING TOWARDS THE MOZABICAN COASTS (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMO, ALADIN) OR
A SOUTHEASTERN AND THEN EASTERN TRACK (ECMWF, GFS)
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL GIVE A STRONG WEIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EASTWARDS TRACK ... AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS.
ON THIS TRACK, GIOVANNA COULD THREATEN THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
INHABITANTS OF THIS AREA ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE CURRENT HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, INHABITANTS OF
THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BETWEEN BEIRA AND MAPUTO SHOULD CONTINU TO
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF GIOVANNA.

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WTIO30 FMEE 161847
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 41.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 41.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.0 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 42.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 43.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 24.9 S / 45.0 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2012/02/21 18 UTC: 24.8 S / 46.2 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0- CI=3.0
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO UNDERGO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY CONSTAINT, SSMIS
DATE DE 1458Z SUGGEST A TILT BETWEEN CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, LE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND MORE FAVOURABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY AGAIN. GIOVANNA IS LOCATED WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION BETWEEN 2 SUB
HIGHS LOCATED OVER AUSTRAL AFRICA AND SOUTH OF LA REUNION.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT EVEN AT SHORT TERM
(TOMORROW !!) WITH 2 POSSIBLES TRACKS: TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND A
HEADING TOWARDS THE MOZABICAN COASTS (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMO, ALADIN) OR
A SOUTHEASTWARDS VERY SLOWLY AND THEN EAST NORTHEASTWARDS TRACK
(ECMWF, GFS)
HOWEVER, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL GIVES A STRONG WEIGHT TO THE
SOUTHEASTWARDS AND EASTWARDS SCENARIO ... AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF/GFS CONSENSUS.
ON THIS TRACK, GIOVANNA COULD MAKE A LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR BEYOND TAU72. INHABITANTS OF THIS AREA ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE CURRENT HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, INHABITANTS OF
THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS BETWEEN BEIRA AND MAPUTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF GIOVANNA.

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WTIO30 FMEE 170025
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 33/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.3 S / 42.1 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 130 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 25.4 S / 42.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 43.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 44.8 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.1 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
120H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 23.5 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=000 , INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=3.0-
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO UNDERGO A WEST NORTHWESTERLY CONSTAINT, MICROWAVES DATA AT 1722Z SUGGEST A TILT BETWEEN CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, LE SYSTEM SHOULD FIND MORE FAVOURABLE UPPERLEVEL CONDITIONS AND INTENSIFY AGAIN.
GIOVANNA IS LOCATED WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION BETWEEN 2 SUB
HIGHS LOCATED OVER AUSTRAL AFRICA AND SOUTH OF LA REUNION.
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT EVEN AT SHORT TERM
(TOMORROW !!) WITH 2 POSSIBLES TRACKS: TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AND A
HEADING TOWARDS THE MOZABICAN COASTS (NOGAPS, GFDN, ALADIN) OR QUITE
STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12/24 HOURS THEN EAST NORTHEASTWARDS
TRACK (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) TOWARDS THE MALAGASY COASTS
HOWEVER, THE LAST ECMWF ENSEMBLE STILL GIVES A QUITE EQUAL WEIGHT TO
THE TWO SCENARII ... FOR THE MOMENT THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMO CONSENSUS.
ON THIS TRACK, GIOVANNA COULD MAKE A LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR BEYOND TAU60. INHABITANTS OF THIS AREA ARE INVITED TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE CURRENT HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, INHABITANTS OF
THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF
GIOVANNA.

[HURAKAN]

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WTIO30 FMEE 170709
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 42.5 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :74 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 110 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 42.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 25.8 S / 43.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 25.7 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 25.6 S / 45.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 45.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 46.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, INLAND
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 47.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/02/22 06 UTC: 22.5 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 CI=3.0
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS VERY FLUCTUATING AND ASCAT 16/1832Z SHOWS A
STRONG WINDS CROWN RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTRE.
LAST 17/0546Z ASCAT SWATH COVERS PARTIALLY THE CIRCULATION BUT CONFIRMS
THIS MAXIMUM WINDS RADII AT ABOUT 75 KM AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. TRACK FORECAST KEEPS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY DESPITE LAST NWP MODELS
BECOME IN A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY EASTWARDS MOTION.
LAST NIGHT UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT (REFER TO CIRRUS ARC IN THE WEST ON
INFRARED IMAGERY) IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY RELAX, SYSTEM SHOULD
THEREFORE INTENSIFY AGAIN.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERSEA AND
SHOULD REACH BACK SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
ON AND AFTER THIS RANGE, TRACK UNCERTAINTY IMPACT STRONGLY INTENSITY
FORECAST, DEPENDING ON AN OVERSEA OR INLAND TRACK.
DESPITE LAST ECMWF NWP RUN SHOWS AN OVERSEA TRACK, RSMC'S ONE
FORECAST A LANDFALL IN THE REGION OF SAINTE-MARIE CAPE AND THEN A
WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
GIVEN THE CURRENT HIGH SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE, INHABITANTS OF
THE MOZAMBICAN COASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF
GIOVANNA.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 171236
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0 S / 42.7 E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :78 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 26.0 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 25.9 S / 43.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 46.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 24.5 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 24.1 S / 48.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 48.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/22 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 47.7 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=3.0 CI=3.0
GIOVANNA SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND FEATURE.
THIS MORNING (17/0546Z) ASCAT SWATH COVERS PARTIALLY THE CIRCULATION BUT
CONFIRMS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS RADII IS EXTENDING AT ABOUT 75 KMAWAY FROM THE CENTRE.
TRACK FORECAST KEEPS A RATHER STRONG UNCERTAINTY DESPITE LAST NWP
MODELS BECOME IN A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY EASTWARDS
MOTION.
LAST NIGHT UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT IS CURRENTLY RELAXING AND SYSTEM IS
THEREFORE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN GRADUALLY.
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, GIOVANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERSEA AND
SHOULD REACH BACK SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
ON AND AFTER THIS RANGE, TRACK UNCERTAINTY IMPACT STRONGLY THE
INTENSITY FORECAST, DEPENDING ON AN OVERSEA OR INLAND TRACK.
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE 0000Z ECMWF'S ONE AND
OFFER AN OVERSEA TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE THEN A WEAKENING IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A WESTERLY SHEARED
CONSTRAINT AND DISSIPATION INLAND OVER THE THE SOUTHEASTERN
MALAGASY COASTLINE.
INHABITANTS OF SOUTHERN MALAGASY AREAS ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
THE OPTION OF A THREAT TO MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE BECOMES LESS AND LESS
LIKELY.