SIO: GIOVANNA - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

GFS sees further intensification a few days into the future

[HURAKAN]

surface map

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
69.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 69.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
APPROXIMATELY 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND THE
NUMERICAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

[HURAKAN]

becoming better organized

[cycloneye]

TXXS23 KNES 081800
TCSSIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98S)

B. 08/1730Z

C. 13.3S

D. 69.3E

E. FIVE/MET-7

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED IN THE PAST 6HRS THOUGH MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS POOR ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW LEVELS. DT OF 1.5 IS BASED
ON 3/10 W BANDING. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

[HURAKAN]

09/0000 UTC 13.8S 67.8E T2.0/2.0 98S -- Southwest Indian

organizing pretty fast

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTXS21 PGTW 082330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S 69.9E TO 15.8S 60.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081930Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 69.1E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S
69.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 67.0E, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BANDING CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP AROUND THE LLCC, WITH DEEPER CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE
LLCC. A RECENT 082123Z AMSU-B PASS SUPPORTS THE BANDING OBSERVED IN
IR IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
APPROXIMATELY 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
UNDER WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE APPROXIMATELY 28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING IR SATELLITE SIGNATURE, FAVORABLE SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092330Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 090643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2012/02/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 66.2 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/09 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/10 06 UTC: 15.6 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/10 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/11 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/11 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/13 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 52.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/14 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 49.8 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY IMPROVE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS (CF LAST MW PICTURES SSMI AND TRMM) BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING. PARTIALLY ASCAT DATA AT 05TU SUGGEST A 20/25KT CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION,
MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD REACH 30KT IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITHIN AN
OUTER BAND.
MSLP HAS BEEN ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THE BOUYS 14043 AND 23946 CLOSE TO
THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A
LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. IT IS FORCAST TO FOLLOW THIS STEERING
FLOW DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. ON SATURDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW
DOWN, DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT IN THE SOUTH. BEYOND
72TAU, THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD WITH THE
REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A REGULAR
DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM.
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD.
UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD.
AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BUILT POLEWARD DURING 48 HOURS, ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE
SOUTH. IT SHOULD BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER ONE EQUATORWARD ON SUNDAY.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND OF THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

latest track

[HURAKAN]

09/1130 UTC 14.0S 65.7E T2.5/2.5 98S -- Southwest Indian



should be upgraded soon

[HURAKAN]

latest visible, wide look

[Chacor]

WTIO30 FMEE 091305 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2012/02/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9 S / 65.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/10 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/02/10 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 61.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/11 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/11 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/12 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/12 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/13 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/14 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
ACCORDING TO THE LAST ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES, CONVECTION IS STRUCTURING ABOVE THE CENTRE.
SYSTEM HAS DEEPEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE MID-TROPOSHERE. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN, DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT IN THE SOUTH. BEYOND 72TAU, THE TRACK SHOULD RECURVE WESTWARD WITH THE
REBUILDING OF THE HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH-EAST OF MADAGASCAR.
AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A REGULAR DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM UP TO
SUNDAY.
OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD.
CURRENTLY UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD SOUTHWARD.
THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY AND AFTER, SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE REBUILDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF
THROUGH THE LANDFALL AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW
WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082321ZFEB2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 14.1S 65.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 65.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.6S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.0S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.5S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 16.2S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 17.0S 56.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 17.9S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.3S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 64.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 690 NM NORTHEAST OF
LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED QUICKLY WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A 091155Z 85 GHZ SSMI IMAGE CONFIRMS THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE AND MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM
ALL AGENCIES. TC 12S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT IS FORECAST TO
TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL, MODEL GUIDANCE IS POORLY
INITIALIZING THE CURRENT INTENSITY; THEREFORE, A SHARPER TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD, CLOSER TO MAURITIUS, AND GREATER INTERACTION WITH THE
TROUGH IS LIKELY. THIS POLEWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND A STR BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN MADAGASCAR
PROVIDING A WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 12S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO NOGAPS,
GFS, UKMO AND ECMWF; HOWEVER, ONLY NOGAPS AND ECMWF OFFER A
REASONABLE SOLUTION. BOTH UKMO AND GFS MAINTAIN WEAK SYSTEMS AND
INDICATE UNLIKELY TRACKS. UKMO SHOWS A SLOW TRACK THEN EQUATORWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 48 WHILE GFS SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK DESPITE ALSO
INDICATING THE DEEP TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THE JTWC FORECAST
FAVORS THE NOGAPS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 082321Z FEB 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

very well-organized system

[HURAKAN]

09/1730 UTC 14.1S 64.7E T3.0/3.0 12S -- Southwest Indian

45 kt

[Extratropical94]

Say hi to Giovanna:

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GIOVANNA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/09 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 64.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/10 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 63.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/10 18 UTC: 16.4 S / 61.0 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/11 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 59.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/02/11 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/02/12 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/02/12 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/13 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/14 18 UTC: 18.0 S / 47.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, INLAND
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
FOR LATEST HOURS, SYSTEM SHOWS AN IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN WITH A 100/120
NM DIAMETER (DT AT 3.0). AT 1530Z, SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED GIOVANNA BY
MAURITIUS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. WINDS EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN
CALIBRATED THANKS TO 1738Z ASCAT SWATH. MSLP HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN
RELATIONSHIP TO 23946 BUOY OBS AT 1710Z.
SYSTEM IS GENERALLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED IN THE
SOUTH-EAST. WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THIS TRACK BY
SLIGHTLY ACCELERATING.
ON SATURDAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC BELT IN THE SOUTH. BEYOND 60 TAU, TRACK SHOULD
RECURVE WESTWARD WITH THE REBUILDING OF HIGH PRESSURES SOUTH-EAST OF
MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THIS TRACK. ECMWF FORECAST THAT SYSTEM WILL GO DOWN MORE TOWARD THE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY (RSMC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK).
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR A REGULAR
INTENSIFICATION UP TO SUNDAY. OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL IS VERY GOOD.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK AND DIVERGENCE IS GOOD MAINLY SOUTHWARD.
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRANSITING IN THE SOUTH.
ON SUNDAY AND AFTER, GIOVANNA SHOULD UNDERGO A WEAK TO MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF REBUILDING UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. CONSEQUENTLY INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND
EVEN A BIT REDUCE BEFORE THE LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR THAT IS EXPECTED AT THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD.
INHABITANTS OF MASCARENES ISLANDS AND OF THE EASTERN COAST OF
MADAGASCAR ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW WITH ATTENTION THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRING GIOVANNA VERY CLOSELY
SOUTH OF SAINT-BRANDON IN THE MORNING ON SATURDAY.

[Extratropical94]

Map with forecast track:

[HURAKAN]

Continues to become better organized

[HURAKAN]

ECMWF ... 96 hours