SIO: HILWA - Moderate Tropical Storm (13S)

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 127
WTIO30 FMEE 150650
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 84.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL
NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/15 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 80.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 75.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 69.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS A SMALL SIZE ONE, WITH A FLUCTUATING STRUCTURE SHOWS
TEMPORALLY A BANDING PATTERN ON THE SSMIS DATA OF 2114Z.
THE 1554Z ASCAT SWATH IS NOT CENTRED BUT WE CAN SEE THAT LOW LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CAN BE ABOUT 30 KT.
THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVOURABLE, WITH A VERY POOR POLAR
INFLOW AND QUITE NOT EXISTING MONSOON FLOW, AND DESPITE OF QUITE
CORRECT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A
GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, INTENSIFICATION MAY REMAIN SLOW. BEYOND THIS TAU,
THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM.
SYSTEM MIGHT CONTINUE TO TRACK RAPIDLY THEN MORE SLOWLY
WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH.=
NNNN

[Crostorm]

Warning Nr / Avis Nr NR26/09 15/02/2012 0700 UTC NR05/10 15/02/2012 0700 UTC
System / Système TROPICAL MODERATE TROPICAL STORM / TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
Name / Position / Position NEAR 14° 5 S - 85° 3 E 15/02/2012 0600 UTC
Estimated minimum central Pressure / Pression minimale estimée au centre 994 HPA
Maxi average wind (10 mn) near the centre / Vent moyen maxi (10 mn) près du centre 40 KT (75 KM/H)
Gust maxi / Rafales maxi 55 KT (100 KM/H)
CI Number (Dvorak scale) / Nombre CI (Classification de Dvorak) CI 3.0
Movement over the past 06 hours / Déplacement au cours des dernières 06 heures WSW 12 KT (22 KM/H)
Other informations / Autres informations INCREASING / S'INTENSIFANT THE SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL IN DIAMETER / LE SYSTEM EST DE TRES PETIT DIAMETRE

© MTOTEC

[HURAKAN]

latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 151302
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 84.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 82.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 79.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 17.0 S / 75.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 70.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 66.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM IS A SMALL SIZE ONE, WITH A FLUCTUATING STRUCTURE SHOWS NOW
A SMALL CDO PATTERN. THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVOURABLE, WITH A VERY POOR POLAR
INFLOW AND QUITE NOT EXISTING MONSOON FLOW, AND DESPITE OF QUITE
CORRECT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A
GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, INTENSIFICATION MAY REMAIN SLOW. BEYOND THIS TAU,
THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM DESPITE OF THE IMPROVING OF BOTH TRADES AND MONSOON FLOWS.
SYSTEM MIGHT CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 151708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 83.3 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL THREE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W0.5/06 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 82.2 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 80.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 18.0 S / 76.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5 ACCORDING TO THE VERY LAST AVALAIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES, THE LITTLE CDO
PATTERN IS DEGRADING.
THE ASCAT SWATH AT 1534Z SUGGESTS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE WIND AT LEAST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVOURABLE, WITH A VERY POOR POLAR
INFLOW AND QUITE NOT EXISTING MONSOON FLOW, AND DESPITE OF QUITE
CORRECT UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A
GOOD POLAR OUTFLOW, INTENSIFICATION MAY REMAIN SLOW. BEYOND THIS TAU,
THE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM DESPITE OF THE IMPROVING OF BOTH TRADES AND MONSOON FLOWS.
SYSTEM MIGHT CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES REBUILDING IN THE SOUTH.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 160108
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 83.2 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL TWO
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 81.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 80.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/20 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 63.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
THE PATTERN IN LITTLE CDO HAS DEGRADE OVER THE PAST HOURS, AND
CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING.
NO FEEDING EQUATORWARD SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITANT FACTOR FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. MONSOON INFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AT 48TAU.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS OR MORE UNDER THE NORTH-EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE, TROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN REVISED AND LOWERED.
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT ARE BUILDING IN ITS
SOUTH.
CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR
WARNING.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 15.1S 83.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 83.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.5S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 16.0S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.3S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 18.6S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 19.8S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.1S 64.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 83.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. A 12-HOUR ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
A DEEPENING COLD DENSE OVERCAST WITH IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 151535Z ASCAT
PASS OUTLINING A TIGHT AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH PERIPHERAL WIND BARBS OF 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS 05 DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). IT IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). A SECONDARY STR, CURRENTLY ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF
MADAGASCAR WILL ASSUME STEERING BY TAU 48 WITH VERY MINIMAL EFFECT
TO THE STORM MOTION. TC 13S WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS
LOW AND RADIAL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR THAT IS DEFLECTING THE VORTEX MORE POLEWARD AFTER TAU 48.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 160715
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 81.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL NINE
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/16 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/02/17 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/17 18 UTC: 15.9 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/18 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 76.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 71.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 00Z HAS BEEN CORRECTED. LATEST ASCAT PASS CLEARLY
SHOWS NEAR GALE TO LOCALLY GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE (BUT NOT IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE).
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, A
NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS EVIDENT WITH A LLCC LOCATED TO THENORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS.
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT A LOWER THAN USUAL
CONFIDENCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM:
NO FEEDING EQUATORWARD SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITANT FACTOR FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW.
MONSOON INFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AT 48TAU.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS OR MORE UNDER THE NORTH-EASTERLY UPPER
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE, TROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT ARE BUILDING IN ITS
SOUTH.

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 161242
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 81.4 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/17 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 80.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/17 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 78.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 76.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/18 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 16.9 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
72H: 2012/02/19 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.0
OVERALL PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS DETERIORATED ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE CENTER COLLAPSED.
UNDERGOING A NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT, THE LLCC LOCATED IS NOWEXPOSED.
INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN USUAL WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM:
NO LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY INFLOW EQUATORWARD SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
LIMITANT FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW. MOREOVER, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY, THE
SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS OR MORE UNDER A NORTH-EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH LEVEL RIDGE.
MONDAY, UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A BETTER DIVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT ARE BUILDING IN ITS
SOUTH. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE TRACK SHOULD TAKE A MORE
SOUTHWESTWARDS COMPONENT AS THE SYSTEM SHOULD ROUND AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH EAST.
CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR ADVISORIES.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 180810
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 76.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 280 SW: NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/18 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/19 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/19 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 69.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2012/02/20 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2012/02/20 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 65.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/21 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/22 06 UTC: 25.1 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0
POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED THANKS TO 0243Z F18 AND 0343Z ASCAT SWATH BUT
A DOUBT EXISTS FOR 0600Z POSITION THAT MIGHT BE MORE SOUTH. CONVECTION
IS LOCATED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND
RATHER DISORGANIZED.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW EQUATORWARD SEEMS TO REMAIN THE MAIN LIMITANTFACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW (EVEN IF IT IS A LITTLE BETTER AT THIS
TIME). WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, IT MIGHT CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTSOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURES. UP TO SUNDAY, IT UNDERGOES A MODERATE EASTERLY WINDSHEAR.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWARD TRACK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
TEMPORARY MORE FAVOURABLE BEFORE TO DETERIORATE AGAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY. (STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, SST COOLER).
UNCERTAINTY OF INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS
SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM DO NOT JUSTIFY ISSUE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[Crostorm]

ZCZC 594
WTIO30 FMEE 200103 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20112012
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10
2.A POSITION 2012/02/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 66.8 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 17 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: SW: 110 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 0 / 0 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/20 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
24H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 64.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
36H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 63.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
48H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 22.8 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
60H: 2012/02/22 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2012/02/23 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5
19/1730Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WINDS AT ABOUT 10/15 KT IN THE NORTHERN SE
MI-CIRCLE AND AT ABOUT 20/25 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE LOCALLY REACHING 30 KT IN THE SOUTH-EA
STERN QUADRANT UP TO 50 NM FROM THE CENTRE. CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND RATHER BAD ORGANIZE
D.
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN SOUTHWARD AND FINALLY SOUTHWARD FR
OM WEDNESDAY.
IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW (MAINLY EQUATORWARD), SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO DE
EPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AT SHORT OR MEDIUM RANGE.
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTIO30 FMEE 201234
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20112012
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HILWA)
2.A POSITION 2012/02/20 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 65.4 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/02/21 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2012/02/21 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 63.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2012/02/22 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2012/02/22 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2012/02/23 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 62.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/02/23 12 UTC: 27.5 S / 64.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5+.
20/0441Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN
THE LAST 12 HOURS IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CERCLE. TRMM DATA OF 0659Z
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION IS ORGANISING INTO CURVED BAND AROUND THE
CENTRE. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE HIGHS OF LOW TROPOSPHERE AND FINALLY
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY EVACUATING WITH THE TROUGH.
THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM , AND THE
TEMPORALLY POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUILDING WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GIVE A GAP OF INTENSIFICATION OF 24 TO 36 HOURS.
HOWEVER IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW (MAINLY
EQUATORWARD), INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN LABORIOUS.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible

[Chacor]

Why the hell is this listed as a WPAC storm on the main forum page?!

[senorpepr]

Why the hell is this listed as a WPAC storm on the main forum page?!

Chill out. People can't make mistakes?! You could have PM'd someone....

Anyway, a request has been placed to have it switched.