WPAC: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (01W)

[HURAKAN]

Latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

affecting the Philippines

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 09.4N 116.0E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 09.4N 114.0E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[senorpepr]

Plenty of rainfall over the Philippines associated with 92W and now 93W. Here are the rainfall totals since 07/00Z. Hinatuan reports 380.4 mm or roughly 14.98 in.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 09.4N 115.7E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 09.3N 113.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7N 116.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF MID-LEVEL
TURNING ABOVE A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 170212Z 89 GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGING
NORTHERLIES INTO EASTERLIES. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SUGGESTS A
LINE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE 8.0N LATITUDE OVER THE SPRATLY ISLANDS
EXTENDING TO THE SULU SEA. ADDITIONALLY, THE PAST TWO SWATHS OF THE
ASCAT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INDICATE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOONAL COLD SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS THE LLCC A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS UNDER 10-15 KNOTS OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO
THE MODERATE VWS OVER A WEAK LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

[StormingB81]

We starting Early?

[StormingB81]

JMA starting to put warning out...they think it will be a TS in 24 hours...

TD
Issued at 10:10 UTC, 17 February 2012
<Analyses at 17/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°25'(9.4°)
E115°40'(115.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 18/09 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°20'(9.3°)
E113°40'(113.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 9.6N 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.9N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.2N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.0N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 11.7N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 113.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
170814Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC WITH A SLIGHT BREAK OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMI IMAGE
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS FROM RJTD. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 170406Z
INDICATED 20 KNOT WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 30 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL
SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC A FEW DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TD
01W IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THIS STR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 72 WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE OVERLAND. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TD 01W SHOULD BE ABLE
TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE MODERATE VWS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH SHOULD ADD TO THE SYTEMS VORTICITY. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND FOR THIS REASON THE OFFICAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND
181500Z.//
NNNN

[francis327]

WTPN31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 9.6N 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 9.9N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 10.2N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 10.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 11.0N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 11.7N 107.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 113.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST OF
HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
170814Z SSMI 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
AROUND THE LLCC WITH A SLIGHT BREAK OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMI IMAGE
WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS FROM RJTD. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM 170406Z
INDICATED 20 KNOT WINDS WEST OF THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 30 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL
SURGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE LLCC A FEW DEGREES
EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. TD
01W IS STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED FAR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THIS STR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 72 WHERE IT WILL
DISSIPATE OVERLAND. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS TD 01W SHOULD BE ABLE
TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE MODERATE VWS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WHICH SHOULD ADD TO THE SYTEMS VORTICITY. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED AND FOR THIS REASON THE OFFICAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND
181500Z.//
NNNN



It is now TD 01W....the first TD for 2012....

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 09.4N 115.1E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 08.9N 112.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 09.4N 114.4E POOR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 09.0N 112.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

Still only T1.5 from RJTD so not expecting an upgrade / naming at 1800.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 09.5N 114.2E POOR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 09.0N 111.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 9.2N 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2N 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 9.3N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 9.0N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 113.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 171318Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FOR TD 01W WAS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION OBSERVED IN BOTH MULTISPECTRAL AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND INDICATED CENTRAL WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KNOTS. A 171812Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGERY SHOWS NO IDENTIFIABLE
LLCC NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION, WHICH IS CURRENTLY 120 NM
NORTHWEST OF THE 1800Z BEST-TRACK POSITION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LLCC IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
BUT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH WITH 20 TO 30 KNOTS
SHEARING THE CONVECTION NORTHWARD. BASED ON THE RE-ASSESSMENT OF THE
LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, INCREASING VWS AND LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC, THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 12
FEET.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 09.9N 112.8E POOR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 09.2N 110.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[dexterlabio]

JTWC issued its final warning on TD01W...

ABPW10 PGTW 180030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180030Z-180600ZFEB2012//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171953ZFEB2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 171800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.2N 113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI
MINH, VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 20
KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 172100) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1).//
NNNN



Though JMA still expecting a TS out of this. For the first time this year, I checked out the Euro models and it's been showing for a few consecutive runs a system (probably of TS-strength) affecting Vietnam. With that, together with other models support, I think there is a high chance that we will have our first TS in WPAC very soon.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HURAKAN]

Latest visible