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SIO: KOJI-JONI - Post-Tropical
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HURAKAN
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SIO: KOJI-JONI - Post-Tropical
Latest
Last edited by HURAKAN on Thu Mar 08, 2012 9:00 am, edited 5 times in total.
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HURAKAN
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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4N 104.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE MONSOON TROUGH. A 051114Z
PARTIAL WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONVECTION
IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO RELAXING VWS AND IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE MONSOON TROUGH. A 051114Z
PARTIAL WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONVECTION
IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO RELAXING VWS AND IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Monday the 5th of March 2012
Valid until midnight WST Thursday
Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
Thunderstorm activity is continuing to increase in tropical maritime parts of
the Western Region near the monsoon trough, currently located along 11-12
degrees south longitude. A weak low lies near 13S106E and while not likely to
develop during Tuesday, the low will move slowly west with computer models
indicating that the low will develop as it moves west, possibly reaching
tropical cyclone strength near 14S094E late Wednesday or Thursday.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00pm WST on Monday the 5th of March 2012
Valid until midnight WST Thursday
Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
Thunderstorm activity is continuing to increase in tropical maritime parts of
the Western Region near the monsoon trough, currently located along 11-12
degrees south longitude. A weak low lies near 13S106E and while not likely to
develop during Tuesday, the low will move slowly west with computer models
indicating that the low will develop as it moves west, possibly reaching
tropical cyclone strength near 14S094E late Wednesday or Thursday.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Moderate
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High
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HURAKAN
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- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0317 UTC 07/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 97.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 07/1200: 14.7S 95.9E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 1000
+24: 08/0000: 15.5S 93.2E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 08/1200: 16.0S 90.6E: 115 [210]: 045 [085]: 992
+48: 09/0000: 16.2S 88.6E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 985
+60: 09/1200: 16.7S 86.7E: 195 [355]: 060 [110]: 981
+72: 10/0000: 17.4S 85.1E: 240 [445]: 065 [120]: 977
REMARKS:
The system has continued to develop overnight with a clear low level centre to
the east of cold convection. DT is fluctuating as the distance from the LLCC to
the convection increases and decreases but MET=PAT=FT=2.0.
Conditions appear favourable for the system to continue to develop and it is
forecast to reach cyclone intensity in 24 hours time. It should continue to
develop over the next 72 hours and then weaken as the system comes under
increased shear.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0317 UTC 07/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 13.9S
Longitude: 97.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [19 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 07/1200: 14.7S 95.9E: 050 [095]: 030 [055]: 1000
+24: 08/0000: 15.5S 93.2E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 998
+36: 08/1200: 16.0S 90.6E: 115 [210]: 045 [085]: 992
+48: 09/0000: 16.2S 88.6E: 145 [270]: 055 [100]: 985
+60: 09/1200: 16.7S 86.7E: 195 [355]: 060 [110]: 981
+72: 10/0000: 17.4S 85.1E: 240 [445]: 065 [120]: 977
REMARKS:
The system has continued to develop overnight with a clear low level centre to
the east of cold convection. DT is fluctuating as the distance from the LLCC to
the convection increases and decreases but MET=PAT=FT=2.0.
Conditions appear favourable for the system to continue to develop and it is
forecast to reach cyclone intensity in 24 hours time. It should continue to
develop over the next 72 hours and then weaken as the system comes under
increased shear.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1251 UTC 07/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 95.6E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0000: 15.4S 92.8E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 08/1200: 15.9S 90.2E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 09/0000: 16.1S 88.3E: 115 [210]: 055 [100]: 985
+48: 09/1200: 16.6S 86.4E: 145 [270]: 060 [110]: 981
+60: 10/0000: 17.3S 84.7E: 195 [355]: 065 [120]: 977
+72: 10/1200: 18.2S 83.3E: 240 [445]: 060 [110]: 978
REMARKS:
With no recent microwave imagery locating the system centre by EIR imagery has
proved difficult. It seems likely the LLCC is still located to the east of the
convection. The system has shown a developing trend over the last 24 hours. FT
is now 2.5.
Conditions appear favourable for the system to continue to develop and it is
forecast to reach cyclone intensity in 12 to 18 hours time. It should continue
to develop over the next 72 hours and then weaken as the system comes under
increased shear.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1251 UTC 07/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.6S
Longitude: 95.6E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [256 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0000: 15.4S 92.8E: 050 [095]: 035 [065]: 997
+24: 08/1200: 15.9S 90.2E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 992
+36: 09/0000: 16.1S 88.3E: 115 [210]: 055 [100]: 985
+48: 09/1200: 16.6S 86.4E: 145 [270]: 060 [110]: 981
+60: 10/0000: 17.3S 84.7E: 195 [355]: 065 [120]: 977
+72: 10/1200: 18.2S 83.3E: 240 [445]: 060 [110]: 978
REMARKS:
With no recent microwave imagery locating the system centre by EIR imagery has
proved difficult. It seems likely the LLCC is still located to the east of the
convection. The system has shown a developing trend over the last 24 hours. FT
is now 2.5.
Conditions appear favourable for the system to continue to develop and it is
forecast to reach cyclone intensity in 12 to 18 hours time. It should continue
to develop over the next 72 hours and then weaken as the system comes under
increased shear.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 07/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
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WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070451ZMAR2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 96.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 96.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.7S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.4S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.0S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.2S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.3S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.0S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 95.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 070226Z ASCAT 25-KM IMAGE SHOWED 25-30 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE LLCC WITH STRONGER 35-40 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS
LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER
WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 070226Z ASCAT
IMAGE, DUE TO ITS LOCATION UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL
AS A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF MIDLATITUDE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU
36. AFTER TAU 72, TC 16S WILL RE-CURVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN. AFTER
TAU 24, TC 16S IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL STR AND
SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS DUE TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING (STRONG) VWS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 BUT DIVERGES NEAR THE RE-CURVE
POINT. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS POSITIONED
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS NO
EVIDENCE OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH
OF 30S LATITUDE (AFTER TAU 120) AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 070451Z MAR 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS22 PGTW 070500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 07/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 93.9E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0600: 15.3S 91.8E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 995
+24: 08/1800: 15.5S 89.7E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 988
+36: 09/0600: 15.8S 87.8E: 115 [210]: 055 [100]: 981
+48: 09/1800: 16.4S 86.0E: 145 [270]: 060 [110]: 977
+60: 10/0600: 17.3S 84.4E: 195 [355]: 065 [120]: 977
+72: 10/1800: 18.1S 83.4E: 240 [445]: 060 [110]: 978
REMARKS:
Locating the system centre by EIR imagery is difficult. It seems likely the LLCC
is still located to the east of the convection. CIMSS has around 12 knots of
NE'ly shear over the system. The system has shown a developing trend over the
last 24 hours. FT is now 2.5.
Conditions appear favourable for the system to continue to develop and it is
forecast to reach cyclone intensity in 6 to 12 hours time. It should continue to
develop over the next 60 hours and then weaken as the system comes under
increased shear.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1903 UTC 07/03/2012
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.8S
Longitude: 93.9E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west [260 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [26 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 997 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0600: 15.3S 91.8E: 050 [095]: 040 [075]: 995
+24: 08/1800: 15.5S 89.7E: 080 [150]: 045 [085]: 988
+36: 09/0600: 15.8S 87.8E: 115 [210]: 055 [100]: 981
+48: 09/1800: 16.4S 86.0E: 145 [270]: 060 [110]: 977
+60: 10/0600: 17.3S 84.4E: 195 [355]: 065 [120]: 977
+72: 10/1800: 18.1S 83.4E: 240 [445]: 060 [110]: 978
REMARKS:
Locating the system centre by EIR imagery is difficult. It seems likely the LLCC
is still located to the east of the convection. CIMSS has around 12 knots of
NE'ly shear over the system. The system has shown a developing trend over the
last 24 hours. FT is now 2.5.
Conditions appear favourable for the system to continue to develop and it is
forecast to reach cyclone intensity in 6 to 12 hours time. It should continue to
develop over the next 60 hours and then weaken as the system comes under
increased shear.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0046 UTC 08/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Koji
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 92.2E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/1200: 16.3S 89.9E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 09/0000: 16.7S 87.8E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 992
+36: 09/1200: 17.2S 85.8E: 140 [265]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 10/0000: 18.0S 83.9E: 175 [325]: 050 [095]: 986
+60: 10/1200: 19.0S 82.2E: 220 [410]: 045 [085]: 988
+72: 11/0000: 19.9S 81.3E: 270 [500]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
Locating the system centre by EIR imagery is difficult and there have been very
few useful microwave passes overnight so the fix location is uncertain. The
ASCAT pass at 15Z indicated gales had wrapped a little over halfway around the
system centre. CIMSS shear analysis indicates around 12 knots of NE'ly shear
over the system.
Dvorak DT analysis can only be done with a shear pattern which yields a DT of
3.5 which is inconsistent with the MET of 2.5 and the AMSU/ADT/SATCON estimates.
FT is based on MET and final intensity is set at 35 knots. The system is named
based on the evidence from ASCAT that the gales are wrapping more than half way
around the centre.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast due to an approaching upper trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0046 UTC 08/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Koji
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 92.2E
Location Accuracy: within 50 nm [95 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [252 deg]
Speed of Movement: 13 knots [24 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/12HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/1200: 16.3S 89.9E: 080 [150]: 035 [065]: 995
+24: 09/0000: 16.7S 87.8E: 110 [205]: 040 [075]: 992
+36: 09/1200: 17.2S 85.8E: 140 [265]: 045 [085]: 990
+48: 10/0000: 18.0S 83.9E: 175 [325]: 050 [095]: 986
+60: 10/1200: 19.0S 82.2E: 220 [410]: 045 [085]: 988
+72: 11/0000: 19.9S 81.3E: 270 [500]: 040 [075]: 990
REMARKS:
Locating the system centre by EIR imagery is difficult and there have been very
few useful microwave passes overnight so the fix location is uncertain. The
ASCAT pass at 15Z indicated gales had wrapped a little over halfway around the
system centre. CIMSS shear analysis indicates around 12 knots of NE'ly shear
over the system.
Dvorak DT analysis can only be done with a shear pattern which yields a DT of
3.5 which is inconsistent with the MET of 2.5 and the AMSU/ADT/SATCON estimates.
FT is based on MET and final intensity is set at 35 knots. The system is named
based on the evidence from ASCAT that the gales are wrapping more than half way
around the centre.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast due to an approaching upper trough.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0648 UTC 08/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Koji
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 90.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/1800: 16.4S 88.6E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 992
+24: 09/0600: 16.8S 86.7E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 990
+36: 09/1800: 17.5S 84.6E: 120 [225]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 10/0600: 18.4S 82.8E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 988
+60: 10/1800: 19.4S 81.6E: 200 [375]: 040 [075]: 990
+72: 11/0600: 20.4S 81.0E: 250 [465]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
Curvature has increased in the last three hours and a wrap of 0.7 can be
obtained on recent VIS imagery. DT of 3.0 is assigned and agrees with MET and
PAT. FT and CI are set to 3.0. This is in ffairly good agreement with SATCON
which assignes 49 knots 1-min mean at 03Z. The partial ASCAT pass at 04Z does
not indicate wind speeds greater than 40 knots. Final intensity estiamte is set
at 40 knots 10-min mean.
The SSMIS pass at 0214 provided an anchor point for recent fixes and increases
the confidence in the analysis position.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast due to an approaching upper trough.
The next warning will be issued by RSMC Reunion.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0648 UTC 08/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Koji
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 90.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/1800: 16.4S 88.6E: 060 [110]: 040 [075]: 992
+24: 09/0600: 16.8S 86.7E: 090 [165]: 045 [085]: 990
+36: 09/1800: 17.5S 84.6E: 120 [225]: 050 [095]: 986
+48: 10/0600: 18.4S 82.8E: 155 [285]: 045 [085]: 988
+60: 10/1800: 19.4S 81.6E: 200 [375]: 040 [075]: 990
+72: 11/0600: 20.4S 81.0E: 250 [465]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
Curvature has increased in the last three hours and a wrap of 0.7 can be
obtained on recent VIS imagery. DT of 3.0 is assigned and agrees with MET and
PAT. FT and CI are set to 3.0. This is in ffairly good agreement with SATCON
which assignes 49 knots 1-min mean at 03Z. The partial ASCAT pass at 04Z does
not indicate wind speeds greater than 40 knots. Final intensity estiamte is set
at 40 knots 10-min mean.
The SSMIS pass at 0214 provided an anchor point for recent fixes and increases
the confidence in the analysis position.
The system is being steered by a mid-level ridge and a general southwestwards
movement is expected to continue through until Saturday when a more southerly
track is forecast due to an approaching upper trough.
The next warning will be issued by RSMC Reunion.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 08/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTIO30 FMEE 081325
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 89.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 440 SW: 440 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/13 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
TROPICAL STORM KOJI HAS BEEN RENAMED KOJI-JONI AFTER CROSSING
LONGITUDE 90°EAST (THUS LEAVING THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF TCWC
PERTH TO ENTER THE AOR OF RSMC LA REUNION). THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF A
NEW PROCEDURE ADOPTED IN 2010 FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN.
WHILE THE PRINCIPLE OF MOVING TOWARDS NOT RENAMING NAMED STORMS
COMING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN HAS BEEN AGREED UPON, AS ANINTERIM PHASE IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO APPEND A HYPHENATED NAME FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN NAMING LIST TO THE EXISTING NAME OF THE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN.
T=3.5 AND CI=3.5
SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZE WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS HOURS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
EXISTING ALOFT AND INTENSITY VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM SATURDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A
TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AFTER A TEMPORARILY SHEARED
RELAX, IS EXPECTED WITHIN SUNDAY TO UNDERGO A NEW NORTHNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE CLEARLY WEAKEN AND ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
THEN BEEN STEERED WESTWARDS BY TRADE WINDS FLOW.
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/13/20112012
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 13 (KOJI-JONI)
2.A POSITION 2012/03/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 89.6 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :43 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 440 SW: 440 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/03/09 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 87.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/03/09 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 84.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/03/10 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 82.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/03/10 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 81.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/03/11 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 80.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/03/11 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/03/12 12 UTC: 25.8 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2012/03/13 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
TROPICAL STORM KOJI HAS BEEN RENAMED KOJI-JONI AFTER CROSSING
LONGITUDE 90°EAST (THUS LEAVING THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF TCWC
PERTH TO ENTER THE AOR OF RSMC LA REUNION). THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE OF A
NEW PROCEDURE ADOPTED IN 2010 FOR THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN.
WHILE THE PRINCIPLE OF MOVING TOWARDS NOT RENAMING NAMED STORMS
COMING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN HAS BEEN AGREED UPON, AS ANINTERIM PHASE IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO APPEND A HYPHENATED NAME FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN NAMING LIST TO THE EXISTING NAME OF THE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN OCEAN.
T=3.5 AND CI=3.5
SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSIVELY ORGANIZE WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS HOURS.
IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
OVER THIS FORECAST TRACK, EASTERLY WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON
EXISTING ALOFT AND INTENSITY VARIATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FROM SATURDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A
TRANSITING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AFTER A TEMPORARILY SHEARED
RELAX, IS EXPECTED WITHIN SUNDAY TO UNDERGO A NEW NORTHNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT.
SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE CLEARLY WEAKEN AND ITS REMNANTS SHOULD
THEN BEEN STEERED WESTWARDS BY TRADE WINDS FLOW.
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