SIO: LUA - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1313 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 18.5S
Longitude: 114.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: near stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0000: 17.7S 114.2E: 050 [095]: 045 [085]: 986
+24: 14/1200: 17.1S 114.2E: 080 [150]: 050 [095]: 982
+36: 15/0000: 17.2S 114.5E: 110 [210]: 060 [110]: 975
+48: 15/1200: 17.9S 115.6E: 145 [270]: 065 [120]: 973
+60: 16/0000: 18.6S 117.1E: 190 [355]: 075 [140]: 962
+72: 16/1200: 19.9S 119.0E: 240 [445]: 080 [150]: 958
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Lua lies well north of the west Pilbara coast.

Dvorak DT is hovering around 3.0 with a CI of 3.0m supported by MET. ASCAT
imagery from earlier in the day showed marginal gales in the SE quadrant and
hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the
southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow
motion to the north is forecast through 24 hours then a faster southeasterly
track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the
ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across
model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and
warm SSTs, although SSTs may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. NWP
indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less
likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the
centre by Thursday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 13/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1833 UTC 13/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.8S
Longitude: 113.6E
Location Accuracy: within 45 nm [85 km]
Movement Towards: west northwest [298 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/0600: 17.0S 113.0E: 060 [110]: 045 [085]: 988
+24: 14/1800: 16.6S 113.3E: 085 [155]: 055 [100]: 980
+36: 15/0600: 16.7S 113.9E: 115 [215]: 060 [110]: 978
+48: 15/1800: 17.3S 115.5E: 150 [280]: 070 [130]: 971
+60: 16/0600: 18.5S 117.5E: 220 [405]: 075 [140]: 966
+72: 16/1800: 20.2S 119.4E: 265 [490]: 065 [120]: 973
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Lua lies well northwest of Karratha.

Dvorak DT is around 2.5 with a PAT of 2.0, the FT is constrained to 3.0, thus CI
of 3.0. ASCAT
imagery at 1433UTC showed the marginal gales in the southern quadrants and hence
max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement has been to the west northwest with the steering under the influence of
an upper ridge to the southwest. A slow motion to the north is forecast through
24 hours then a faster southeasterly track is forecast for the following days
towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies.
There is general agreement across model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and
warm SSTs. NWP indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid
intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to
develop north of the centre by Thursday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

becoming better organized

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 9:13 am WST on Wednesday 14 March 2012

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Mardie to Cape Leveque.

At 8:00 am WST Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 1 was estimated to be
610 kilometres northwest of Karratha moving north northwest at 20 kilometres
per hour away from the coast.

Although Lua is currently moving north northwest, it is likely to take a more
southeasterly track towards the east Pilbara coast and intensify during
Thursday and Friday.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas during today or Thursday, however gales
could develop during Friday well ahead of the cyclone crossing the coast.
FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Mardie and Cape Leveque should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Lua at 8:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 16.9 degrees South 112.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 993 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm WST Wednesday 14 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 112.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 112.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.8S 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.5S 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.5S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.3S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.7S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 24.4S 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 31.2S 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 112.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IS BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST AS
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS
CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LLCC
REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED BUT HAS STRUGGLED UNDER THE VWS TO ORGANIZE
ITS VERTICAL STRUCTURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
EXCELLENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE STEERING MOTION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK THE STORM TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SHORT TERM. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD, AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
IS FORECAST TO TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW. THIS SHIFT IN STEERING
INFLUENCES WITH CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. DECREASING VWS WILL CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, ALLOWING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH LANDFALL, AROUND TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, INCREASING LAND
EFFECTS WILL LEAD TO A DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

12Z ECMWF forecast

[RobWESTPACWX]

Good day everyone, I put some of my thoughts together on this storm, let me know what you all think?

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LP3-_2oSv2k[/youtube]

[Aussie_Thunder]

Hi everyone, finally some decent looking action downunder...albiet on the otherside of the country from me! for anyone interested, these guys are chasing it. http://www.ozcyclonechasers.com.au/ Wishing I was there!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0728 UTC 14/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.1S
Longitude: 112.6E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: north [353 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 14/1800: 15.4S 112.7E: 055 [100]: 055 [100]: 980
+24: 15/0600: 15.3S 113.2E: 080 [150]: 060 [110]: 977
+36: 15/1800: 15.7S 114.8E: 110 [205]: 070 [130]: 971
+48: 16/0600: 16.6S 117.0E: 145 [270]: 075 [140]: 968
+60: 16/1800: 18.1S 119.2E: 180 [335]: 075 [140]: 965
+72: 17/0600: 20.5S 120.7E: 220 [405]: 060 [110]: 977
REMARKS:
Lua remains at category 1 intensity at 45 knots.

Latest Vis imagery has shown improvement in the inner band, with banding 0.6 to
0.9.
Shear has increased slightly to 15/20 knots shown on DVORAK as a sharp boundary
on the southeast side of the deep convection. Dvorak DT is a strong 3.0 with a
PAT of 3.5, and FT/CI =3.0.

Movement has been to the north with the steering under the influence of an upper
ridge to the southwest. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 12 to 18
hours then a faster southeasterly track is forecast for the following days
towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies.
There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario,
although speed of movement varies from the EC [slow] to JMA [fast] changing the
coastal impact time by around 12 hours.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of moderate wind shear
and strong upper level outflow. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to
develop north and east of the centre during Thursday and continue on Friday.
Gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Friday morning owing to a strong
easterly pressure gradient with the ridge to the south.

There is some uncertainty as to how strong Lua will get to prior to landfall.
Having a broad and asymmetric wind field from the monsoon burst, and likely
ongoing moderate shear, would suggest rapid intensification is less likely,
however a severe impact seems the most probable scenario at this range.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 14/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 8:46 pm WST on Wednesday 14 March 2012

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie.

At 8:00 pm WST Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category 2 was estimated to be
690 kilometres northwest of Karratha
780 kilometres northwest of Port Hedland
moving north at 9 kilometres per hour.

Although Lua is currently moving north it is likely to turn back towards the
Pilbara coast during Thursday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe
tropical cyclone during Thursday and remain intense as it approaches the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas during the remainder of Wednesday or on
Thursday.
Gales are expected to develop during Friday or early Saturday as the cyclone
approaches the coast.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of the east Pilbara and west
Kimberley during Thursday and Friday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present.
Communities between Mardie and Cape Leveque should listen for the next advice.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Lua at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 15.7 degrees South 113.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the north at 9 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 981 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am WST Thursday 15 March.

Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (LUA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 112.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 112.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.4S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.6S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.5S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 17.9S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 22.6S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 29.0S 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 112.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, (LUA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING DEFLECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A LARGE GAP IN THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, AND A 141048Z
SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE HORSESHOE PATTERN IS BEING ENHANCED BY
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WHICH HAS INCREASED TO
APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS. DESPITE THE SHEAR, SYSTEM INTENSITY HAS
INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REFLECTS
THE INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, BUT A VIGOROUS
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL PERSISTS. THERE IS ALSO A WEAKER POLEWARD
CHANNEL EXTENDING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF
VWS BETWEEN THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE 15TH LATITUDE WILL SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT AS THE SYSTEM TURNS
SOUTHEAST, VWS WILL EASE AND ALLOW THE STORM TO INTENSIFY ALL THE
WAY THROUGH LANDFALL. TC 17S WAS BEING GUIDED NORTHWARD BY AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN, BUT THE ANTICYCLONE HAS
RETROGRADED DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN AND THERE IS TOO
MUCH SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. AT THE MOMENT THERE IS
LITTLE STEERING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM, BUT DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COUPLE WITH A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE OVER THE TIMOR SEA TO DRIVE THE STORM SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
PORT HEDLAND AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY IN ALONG-TRACK
SPEEDS AND THUS THE TIMING OF LANDFALL, TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY
CONSISTENT REGARDING THE GENERAL TRACK OF THE STORM. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADILY RISING WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN AND
IS NOW INDICATING A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KNOTS AT TAU 54, JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THAT TC 17S WILL REMAIN INTACT AND VIGOROUS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE GIBSON DESERT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

latest infrared

[HURAKAN]

Looks like it's at or approaching hurricane intensity

[wxman57]

Yes it does look like it may be a hurricane now.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1856 UTC 14/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 113.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: north [011 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 975 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/0600: 15.5S 113.4E: 060 [110]: 065 [120]: 968
+24: 15/1800: 15.8S 114.7E: 090 [165]: 075 [140]: 962
+36: 16/0600: 16.7S 116.9E: 120 [225]: 085 [155]: 955
+48: 16/1800: 18.2S 118.9E: 155 [285]: 090 [165]: 947
+60: 17/0600: 20.5S 120.1E: 200 [375]: 070 [130]: 965
+72: 17/1800: 23.3S 120.6E: 250 [465]: 035 [065]: 990
REMARKS:
Position is based on microwave passes at 1048Z and 1413Z.

Dvorak analysis on late afternoon VIS imagery yielded curved band wrap of
0.8-1.0 giving a DT of 3.5. The LLCC is clearly embedded deeply into the
overcast. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0.
SATCON 13Z is estimating 55-60 knots 10-min mean. Final intenisty estimate is
set to 55 knots 10-min mean.

Ocean heat content is very favourable and shear conditions are generally
expected to be favourable over the next 48 hours. A period of very favourable
shear conditions with strong upper divergence is expected as an upper trough
approaches, followed by unfavourable shear as upper northwesterlies increase
over the system.

Movement has been to the north with the steering under the influence of an upper
ridge to the southwest, but this has started to slow. During Thursday the system
should begin to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is
forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is
very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario, although
speed of movement varies somewhat.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0100 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0103 UTC 15/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 113.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: east northeast [071 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [3 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 973 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 45 nm [85 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 996 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1200: 15.8S 114.2E: 055 [100]: 065 [120]: 968
+24: 16/0000: 16.3S 115.9E: 085 [155]: 075 [140]: 961
+36: 16/1200: 17.6S 118.0E: 115 [215]: 085 [155]: 953
+48: 17/0000: 19.0S 119.7E: 145 [270]: 090 [165]: 944
+60: 17/1200: 21.5S 120.8E: 205 [375]: 060 [110]: 971
+72: 18/0000: 24.9S 120.6E: 250 [465]: 035 [065]: 988
REMARKS:
Position is based on some very good microwave passes around 22Z.

Dvorak analysis EIR imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 0.8 giving a DT
of 3.5. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0.
SATCON 18Z is estimating 60-65 knots 10-min mean. Final intenisty estimate is
set to 55 knots 10-min mean.

The current moderate easterly shear is expected to reduce in the next 24 hours
and become very favourable for development together with strong upper divergence
as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavourable shear as
upper northwesterlies increase over the system.

Movement has begun to take a easterly direction in the last few hours as the
steering influence of the upper ridge to the southwest reduces and is balanced
by the vigorous northwesterly monsoonal flow. By tonight the system should begin
to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday
as the ridge weakens further and the monsoon intensifies. There is very good
general agreement across model guidance for this scenario with a coastal
crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0700 UTC 15/03/2012
Name: Tropical Cyclone Lua
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 113.4E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [105 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 970 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 50 nm [95 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm [390 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1800: 16.1S 114.6E: 050 [095]: 070 [130]: 966
+24: 16/0600: 17.0S 116.5E: 080 [150]: 080 [150]: 958
+36: 16/1800: 18.2S 118.5E: 115 [210]: 090 [165]: 945
+48: 17/0600: 20.4S 120.0E: 145 [270]: 080 [150]: 956
+60: 17/1800: 23.2S 120.4E: 195 [355]: 045 [085]: 983
+72: 18/0600: 26.7S 120.2E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 992
REMARKS:
Position is based on VIS imagery and some recent microwave passes.

Dvorak analysis VIS imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 0.8-0.9 giving a
DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0.
Final intenisty estimate is set to 60 knots 10-min mean, with ASCAT showing some
50 knot winds to the north of the system.

The current moderate easterly shear is expected to reduce in the next 24 hours
and become very favourable for development together with strong upper divergence
as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavourable shear as
upper northwesterlies increase over the system but this may not occur in time to
weaken the cyclone prior to landfall on Saturday.

Movement has been very slow in the last few hours as the steering influence of
the upper ridge to the southwest is balanced by the vigorous northwesterly
monsoonal flow. By tonight the system should begin to move to the southeast and
a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens and the
monsoonal flow dominates. There is very good general agreement across model
guidance for this scenario with a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the
timing of this varies somewhat.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest track